What to expect at Harris-Trump debate Tuesday in Philadelphia

The spotlight on Pennsylvania will soon need a fresh bulb.

Tuesday’s debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, set for 9 p.m. at the National Constitution Center, will be another major moment in an unprecedented presidential campaign unfolding in Pennsylvania.

The impact could be huge. The race is essentially tied in Pennsylvania, which could decide the entire election — and while polls show Harris making up ground on President Joe Biden, she is far from conclusively defeating Trump, who still enjoys significant support in the state.

» READ MORE: Five Kinds of Places That Will Get You Pennsylvania

Debates can have consequences, as this election season has already shown. And Tuesday may turn out to be the only debate between Harris and Trump before the November election.

So what do both candidates have to do and what should we pay attention to?

Trump’s allies hope he will stay tranquil and focus on the problems

Trump has the advantage of experience, as this will be his seventh general election debate — more than any other candidate in history. His team also won the war on muting candidates’ microphones when they are not speaking, meaning he will have less leeway to interrupt or wander off topic.

His allies want him to stick to the issues, particularly immigration and inflation, and tie Harris to Biden on both. He’s also likely to try to argue that Harris, who is less well-known than the presidential candidates before her, isn’t yet ready to lead the country. All of this is an opportunity to leisurely down some of the momentum Harris enjoyed after the Democratic National Convention.

“[Harris] told the world on CNN, ‘my values ​​haven’t changed,’ so we’ll give her credit for her real accomplishments,” Trump senior adviser Tim Murtaugh said, previewing an attack on Harris for issues she has focused on, such as fracking. “Her accomplishments are what they are… She’s a liberal from San Francisco who pretends she’s not and won’t let her deal with it.”

Murtaugh said Trump will also emphasize that Harris is part of the Biden-Harris administration. Harris and Trump are preparing for their first debate in Philadelphia. Here’s what’s at stake. “She cannot run as an outsider.”

Calm and discipline aren’t words typically used to describe Trump onstage, RNC Chairman Andy Reilly acknowledged. But he said it’s the former president’s best chance to win over undecided voters, a small but potentially crucial group in swing states like Pennsylvania.

“Sure, there will be times when Trump goes off topic and can’t aid himself. I tell him, [when it comes to] “voters who are susceptible to persuasion, this is not enough for them.”

Harris wants to define herself even more and let Trump be Trump

Harris, who will be preparing for the debate from — where else? — Pennsylvania, will try to attack Trump on issues like reproductive rights and threats to democracy while laying out her priorities. It will be the first time the two women have shared a room since Trump’s State of the Union address when Harris was a senator, and it comes after Trump unleashed racist and sexist attacks on her.

So far, Harris has proven to be above the often racist and sexist accusations he has made against her, rarely engaging in any response — and that strategy could continue on the debate stage Tuesday. There’s also the question of whether Trump will further alienate some voters by doubling down on those attacks onstage.

Eric Stern, a Democratic strategist from Pennsylvania, said Harris’ best move would be to “let Trump get into trouble.”

“He has a unique talent to do it.”

Stern thinks it’s a feasible mission for Harris, even in a format without the muted microphones that could somewhat constrain Trump. “She should let him take the full 60 — and then the 30 and whatever — to tell all of us what he really thinks,” Stern said.

Both will be presenting their offer to a very miniature group of undecided voters.

Even after Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee, voters expressed frustration with the political system — a feeling that is often especially true for undecided voters, who tend to be moderates or independents.

Although both Trump and Harris have served in the White House, each has tried to portray himself as a candidate who can bring a fresh beginning. Some of Trump’s campaign banners read “Save America.” Harris has been vice president for almost one term, but he often talks to voters about “fighting for a better future.” As both candidates argue that they are the change the country needs, who will do it better?

» READ MORE: About 3% of Pennsylvania voters are still undecided. Here’s what we know about the group that could change the outcome of the race.

“He has to remember that his target audience is the voters who can be persuaded,” Reilly said. “That’s when the undecided voters are focused on the race, and he has to dismantle the Kamala 2.0 movement. He has to remind people, in a calm way, with facts, that Harris was there. Harris had a long history before she was vice president, and as vice president, she supported Biden’s views that turned them off.”

Harris, for her part, believes Stern needs to inform voters about the details of his plans and how they can aid the American working class, a key voting group in Pennsylvania and other blue wall states.

“I’m glad she’ll be talking about abortion rights, greed and fighting corporate price gouging,” he said.

Ultimately, she believes her best way to attract undecided voters who might follow her campaign is to present them in an anti-Trump way.

“Tell them this guy is a fraud, this guy is dangerous. He’s been convicted of crimes… he’s no good to you, he’s dangerous.”

Search for questions about fracking, US Steel and other direct appeals to Pennsylvania

Both candidates are sure to hit on a number of issues, but with the debate taking place in Pennsylvania — a state that both Trump and Harris see as a path to the presidency — expect to see appeals to two very commonwealth issues: fracking and the sale of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel.

“I think you’ve heard a lot about fracking,” said Murtaugh, a Trump campaign adviser from Pennsylvania.

» READ MORE: Everything You Need to Know About the Pennsylvania Steel Deal That’s at the Center of the Presidential Election

Ironically, these are also issues that Harris and Trump now agree on. But on both issues, Harris only recently solidified her position, saying she would not ban fracking and also opposing the sale of U.S. Steel to Japan.

Expect Trump to try to prove himself as the rightful defender of the Rust Belt, and Harris to double down on her position.