Warning Signs Behind Kamala Harris’ 4-Point Lead in Pennsylvania

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In this edition:

—Julia Terruso, Anna Orso, Fallon Roth, Katie Bernard, Gillian McGoldrick, Oona Goodin-Smith, pa2024@inquirer.com

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This week, The Inquirer partnered with the New York Times and Siena College to publish a poll of 1,082 likely Pennsylvania voters, was held after the debate that took place on September 11–16. National Political Reporter Julia Terruso takes a closer look at these numbers:

The news coming out of Pennsylvania after the debate seems positive for Harris, but a closer look shows the race is still tight.

While Harris has gained support in the state, especially among voters who seemed to be reluctant to vote for Democrats when President Joe Biden was the nominee, she faces challenges of her own. despite her lead in the polls:

What does it all mean? This race is likely to be decided on the margins in three states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. And the weekly visits to the Keystone State by both campaigns are likely to become even more regular as the campaigns move from persuasion to turnout operations.

On Saturday, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice presidential nominee, is scheduled to appear in Berks County, about an hour’s drive from Allentown, where Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz is also scheduled to appear. And on Monday, Trump returns to the state for the first time since visiting Shanksville on the anniversary of 9/11 for a rally in Indiana County.

🚙 Similar to skyrocketing ad spending, The Inquirer’s travel reimbursements are at an all-time high.

The Latest

📊 US Senator Bob Casey has a comfortable lead over Republican rival Dave McCormick, according to the latest Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll. But the poll also shows there is reason to believe the race could get much tighter before Election Day.

🎙️This week in PhiladelphiaHarris said she does not treat black male voters as a monolith, amid signs that Trump has reached out to that demographic: “I’m working to get their votes, and I don’t assume I’m going to get them because I’m black.”

🏙️ Biden is also back in town This week he spoke at the National Conference of Historically Black Colleges and Universities, where he condemned the “lies and hate” spread about Haitian migrants.

⛪ Trump was on the list to visit Bucks County this weekend with the president of Poland — but his staff said Thursday that he would no longer be attending the ceremony.

⛰️ In Nanticoke, Pennsylvania.national politics is either a front porch poster or a topic best avoided. And that’s the kind of place that could decide the election, as Trump seeks to shore up support among white, working-class voters while Harris tries to replicate Biden’s 2020 successes, and some voters say they’re disillusioned with both parties.

💸 The Richest Man in Pennsylvania is behind a political action committee that has spent huge sums on ads to elect the Republican Party candidate for state attorney general — about $6 million in total.

✍️ Bucks County Republican and a Chester County Democrat were among 32 lawmakers who signed a pledge last week to certify the 2024 election results and attend the next president’s inauguration — regardless of who is elected.

Claim: “[Charleroi] experienced a 2,000% increase in Haitian migrants under Kamala Harris… This is a small town,” Trump said in Tucson, Arizona, last week. “Suddenly, thousands of people have arrived. Schools are scrambling to find translators for the influx of students who don’t speak a word of English, and it’s costing local taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars.”

✖️ Check: FALSEHOOD.

After promoting false and xenophobic claims about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, during last week’s presidential debate in Philadelphia, Trump turned to Charleroi, a small borough in western Pennsylvania, to spread more lies. While Charleroi’s Haitian immigrant population has grown, the community is “not a drain” on local government resources, said Joe Manning, the borough’s superintendent, and hiring English teachers “doesn’t necessarily” cost more local taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars, said the superintendent of the Charleroi Area School District. Trump also said the city is “virtually bankrupt” and that Haitians are driving the rise in crime, which is not true.

🎤 We now turn the microphone over to a reporter from Philadelphia City Hall. Anna Orso to see what The Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll showed when it comes to candidates, the economy, and Philadelphia:

It is widely believed that Trump should lead in this race, given that a Democrat is in the White House and voters have a generally poor opinion of the country’s economic health.

Only 22% of likely voters who responded to a poll we released this week said the economy was doing well. That should, in theory, worry Democrats. As the saying goes, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Is that so? Harris has a slim lead in Pennsylvania, according to this poll, and voters favor Trump over Harris on economic management by just a few percentage points. The vice president had a significant lead on that issue over Biden before he dropped out of the race.

Another explanation is Philadelphia. Residents of the state’s largest city are decidedly worse off economically — only a quarter of Philadelphia likely voters said the economy was in good shape.

But 72% of likely voters in deep-blue Philadelphia trust Harris more than Trump on the economy, a whopping 49-point lead for Harris over the former president on that issue.

📈 Montgomery County Board of Elections: After delays in the April primary that caused mail-in ballots to reach voters only days before the election, Montgomery County has been ahead this month. The county was the first in the Philadelphia area — and likely the state — to print and distribute mail-in ballots. On Tuesday, the day after the Pennsylvania Department of State certified the slate of candidates, Montgomery County voters were allowed to show up at the county building to pick up and submit their mail-in ballots. But Montgomery’s speed raised eyebrows. The Republican National Committee sent a letter accusing the county of skipping required tests of logic and accuracy.

📉 Josh Shapiro: Pennsylvania’s governor headed to Rutter’s in Perry County this week to celebrate the availability of ready-to-drink cocktails at gas stations, restaurants and grocery stores under a new state law. The first-term Democratic governor, shoulder to shoulder with GOP lawmakers, reached out to Surfsides and talked freedom, Spotlight PA Stephen Caruso reported. But Shapiro made a major mistake (aside from going to Rutter’s instead of Wawa) when he went to checkout. The 51-year-old forgot his ID, so he couldn’t buy his Surfside boozy lemonade. (Despite the embarrassment, Shapiro is still riding high, as The Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll shows him doing better in Pennsylvania than Harris, Trump, and even Taylor Swift.)

📸 Scenes from the election campaign

🎅 Overheard this week:

“I think women in particular, we are the mothers of civilization. We have to protect the boys and girls, the little ones and the ancient ones. And I think it’s time for us to get more involved. And I like her running mate. I like the gentleman. First of all, he looks like Santa Claus.” — Gloria Johnson, Philadelphia voter who took part in the surveyon the importance of women voters in this election and her thoughts on Walz.

What will we watch next?

➡️ Will other New Jersey counties follow suit and remove the “county line” from their ballots, a move Senate candidate Andy Kim has called “the beginning of a new era in politics”?

➡️ And the campaigns are returning to Pennsylvania — that is, if they ever really leave. Vance is coming to Berks County, Walz is scheduled to meet with two Latino actors in Allentown, fellow gentleman Doug Emhoff will drum up volunteers in Bucks County, and Trump will hold a rally in the western part of the state.

👩‍💻 One last thing about data: If you can’t get enough of the Pennsylvania polls, we have some good news for you. From now until Election Day, you can return to this page to find the latest updates.

Thanks for reading and see you next week. 👋