The Pennsylvania Senate is preparing for a statewide recount, while Casey refuses to budge on the decision

The Pennsylvania Department of State announced Wednesday that Pennsylvania’s nationally watched U.S. Senate race is heading to a recount after incumbent Sen. Bob Casey failed to waive an automatic recount.

The Associated Press called the race last week for Republican Dave McCormick, who narrowly leads three-term Democrat Casey by less than 0.5%, the threshold that triggers an automatic recount.

This will be the eighth time the state’s automatic recount law has been triggered since it was introduced in 2004, and the fourth time an actual recount will take place. The State Department estimated it would cost more than $1 million state dollars.

Casey leads McCormick by almost 30,000 votes, a gap enormous enough that a recount is unlikely to change the outcome of the race. But the State Department said Wednesday that about 80,000 ballots have yet to be counted statewide, though many may be rejected.

If McCormick’s lead holds after the recount, it will be the end of an era in Pennsylvania politics. Casey, the governor’s son, won six statewide elections by a wide margin. His Senate career spanned four presidencies, from George W. Bush to fellow Scranton native Joe Biden.

Casey had until noon Wednesday to opt out of the recount, but he did not exercise that option, so the recount will continue. His campaign insisted the senator still had a narrow path to victory, releasing daily statements repeating that vote counting was ongoing.

“My priority has always been supporting the people of Pennsylvania. “Across the Commonwealth, nearly 7 million people cast ballots in free and fair elections,” Casey said Tuesday morning. “Our county election officials will finish counting these votes as they do during every election. The American democratic process was born in Pennsylvania, and that process will continue.”

For his part, McCormick expressed confidence that his lead would hold.

“I don’t care who voted for me and who didn’t vote for me,” McCormick said Friday in his victory speech. “Today I turn the page. “I am focused on serving every Pennsylvanian.”

Counties are required to start recounting no later than Wednesday, November 20. They must complete their testimony by Tuesday, November 26.

Recounts often result in the final tally of votes changing slightly for each candidate. However, these amendments can work in either direction and usually only affect a very tiny fraction of votes. It is extremely scarce for a recount to change the final outcome of a statewide race, especially one divided by a majority of about 30,000 votes.

Gov. Josh Shapiro, the state’s top Democrat, declined to comment on the recount, deferring to the State Department.

McCormick’s campaign said a recount would be a waste of taxpayers’ money.

“Senator-elect McCormick’s lead is insurmountable, as the AP made clear when calling the race. A recount will be a waste of time and taxpayer money, but that is Senator Casey’s prerogative,” McCormick spokeswoman Elizabeth Gregory said in a statement. “Senator-elect McCormick knows what it’s like to lose an election, and he’s confident that Senator Casey will ultimately come to the right conclusion.”

Interestingly, this will be the second recount that McCormick will be involved in – and in only his second competitive election. In Pennsylvania’s 2022 Senate race, after a recount, McCormick fell less than 1,000 votes behind Mehmet Oz in the GOP primary.

While Casey maintained a lead in the polls for much of the campaign, the race tightened in recent days, with McCormick leading as votes were counted in the days after the election. However, his lead narrowed and fluctuated over time as provisional ballots were processed in some larger counties, and was within the 0.5% threshold as of Wednesday.

After Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (R-N.Y.) initially declined the invitation, McCormick is attending an orientation event for future senators this week.

Counties will complete vote tallies before the recount process begins. According to the Department of State, this includes 60,366 provisional ballots and 20,155 absentee and absentee ballots. Many of these ballots may not be counted as local boards of elections determine their validity and voter eligibility.

Casey’s campaign issued a statement Wednesday criticizing McCormick and Republicans for pursuing lawsuits that could result in some provisional ballots being excluded. The campaign argued that McCormick’s continued litigation over the election showed he believed it wasn’t over yet.

Last week, McCormick’s campaign filed two lawsuits in Philadelphia, asking for permission to challenge provisional ballots in groups rather than individually, and to segregate some provisional ballots. Ultimately, in one case, the campaign withdrew its request for an emergency injunction, and in the other, a judge denied it.

“David McCormick and his allies are attempting to disenfranchise Pennsylvania voters by filing lawsuits to throw out large tranches of votes that they have admitted in legal filings could influence the outcome of the election,” said Casey campaign manager Tiernan Donohue.

The RNC also indicated plans to challenge thousands of provisional ballots. At the Bucks County Board of Elections meeting, the party indicated plans to challenge local officials’ decisions to count undated and provisional ballots cast by voters whose absentee ballots were rejected.

Casey’s insistence on staying in the race has sparked calls for hypocrisy from some on the right who pointed out that he called on then-President Donald Trump to concede to Joe Biden in 2020.

Right-wing project of fair elections he posted the announcement on Tuesday calling for Casey to step down, using excerpts from the senator’s comments from 2020. Trump, who won the 2024 election, is still not over his 2020 defeat.

Casey, however, did not make false claims of voter fraud as Trump did. He also relied on the fact that several race announcement sites still say his race is too close to call, even though the Associated Press has declared the winner.

Writer Gillian McGoldrick contributed to this story.