The survey was conducted for the third time in a row Vice President Kamala Harris received more support than the former president Donald Trump in a survey of 1,793 likely voters in Pennsylvania.
This Quinnipiac University’s latest poll showed Harris with a 50-47% lead in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, while maintaining a three-percentage-point lead over Trump in the plurality election (48-45%). In the latter, the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., He received 4% support – his second consecutive result below five percent.
“With all five candidates in the race, Harris has the edge overall, and she also has strong support from women in Pennsylvania, which is a must-win,” said Quinnipiac University pollster Tim Malloy.
This is the third consecutive poll to show Harris ahead, showing that the supposed “honeymoon” period is not over yet.
“This may be the honeymoon period, but here comes the Democratic Convention, which will certainly give the ticket a boost,” Malloy said. “At least right now, the momentum and the advantage are with the Harris/Walz ticket.”
Senator Bob Casey Jr. He has scored above 50 percent for the fourth time in five polls, receiving 52 percent of support from respondents. That’s eight percent more than the Republican challenger Dave McCormickalthough 44% is the highest result reported by a neutral pollster since he won 46% from Marist in early June.
“Eight points is a good lead for Casey,” Malloy said. “McCormick is limited by his lack of name recognition and the clock is ticking, so there’s a lot of work to be done.”
President
Harris continued to attract sturdy numbers from women (54-41%), blacks (85-9%) and college-educated white voters (67-28%). Independents favored the vice president by a margin of 46-42%, as did those aged 18-34 (48-37%), 35-49 (57-35%) and those aged 65 and older (50-46%).
Trump continues to enjoy support among men (49-42%), whites without a college education (60-33%) and people aged 50-64 (54-41%).
Three in five Keystone State respondents (60%) believe Trump is dishonest, while 46% believe Harris is forthright.
“Trump scores poorly on most key character traits, including empathy, but none is as glaring as integrity, where Harris clearly wins; although both are seen as equal in terms of leadership,” Malloy added.
The gap in support for “enthusiasm” is narrowing, with 70% of likely voters expressing very enthusiastic support for Trump, and 66% for Harris.
But Harris’ choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz because her vice presidential candidate made 59% of respondents more enthusiastic about her candidacy, compared to only 43% who shared the same view as Trump about choosing Ohio Senator J.D. Vance.
“The long-term impact is a matter of speculation, but the math is clear: Walz helps Harris a lot more than Vance helps Trump,” Malloy added.
US Senate
Casey, a three-term incumbent, appears to have a lock on his party’s voters, as 93% indicate support for the Scranton native. McCormick doesn’t have the same approach with the GOP, with 85% support.
Men (49-47%), whites without a college degree (57-38%) and 50-64-year-olds (52-44%) favor McCormick. Like Harris, Casey is drawing sturdy numbers among women (57-40%), blacks (83-13%), college-educated whites (68-30%) and younger voters. He has a 15% lead among 18-34-year-olds and a 23% lead among 35-49-year-olds (59-36%).
Favor
- Harris-2 (46-48)
- Advantage -9 (44-53)
- Waltz +7 (36-29)
- Vance-10 (35-45)
- Kennedy -25 (23-48)
- Casper +7 (42-35)
- McCormick-2 (30-32)
- Governor Josh Shapiro +24 (53-29)
- Senator John Fetterman +5 (41-36)
Harris has a plus-9 rating (52-43) among women and a minus-15 rating among women (39-54). Black voters overwhelmingly view the vice president in a favorable featherlight (77-13, +64), while white voters give her a minus-8 rating (44-52).
Trump, on the other hand, is minus-17 with women (40-57) and plus-1 (49-48) with men. College-educated whites give him minus-42 (28-70), while those without sheepskins give him plus-24 (60-36). Blacks send back minus-71 (14-85), while younger voters also have the former president underwater at minus-22 for those ages 18-34 and minus-28 for those ages 35-49.
Casey is viewed favorably by blacks (+45), voters ages 35-49 (+19), and women (+16). McCormick’s highest numbers come from whites without a four-year degree (+13) and those ages 50-64 (+5).
Shapiro, who was Harris’ leading vice presidential candidate, showed sturdy performance across the board, with only white men without a four-year college degree (-8) viewing him unfavorably. Women gave the first-term governor a +34 rating, while blacks received a +58.
The most vital thing
When respondents were given a list of 12 issues and asked which one was most vital in deciding who to vote for in the presidential election, 32 percent selected the economy, followed by preserving democracy in the United States (25 percent) and immigration (10 percent).
- GOP: Economy (50%), Immigration (20%)
- Democrats: preserving democracy (42%), abortion (16%), economy (13%)
- Indy: Economy (33%), Maintaining Democracy (23%), Immigration (10%)
Approval of work
- President Joe Biden -14 (41-55)
- Shapiro +31 (59-28)
- Casper +9 (47-38)
- Fetterman +11 (48-37)
Postal voting
Nearly 1 in 4 respondents (23%) indicated they would vote absentee/mail-in, with seniors (65+) showing the greatest support (34%). Democrats favor mail-in voting more than Republicans, 34%-14%.
