FAU: Presidential race too close to call; Casey has the advantage over McCormick

One race is too close to call while the other is outside the margin of error the latest battlefield survey from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Laboratory of Political Communication and Public Opinion Research together with Mainstreet Research.

The group examined three battleground states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – and its results showed that the race for the White House between President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump it’s too close to summon all three.

In the Keystone State, Trump has a two-point lead over Biden among both all voters (45-43%) and likely voters (47-45%) with a margin of error of +/-3%.

“Neither side currently has a significant advantage in any of the three states,” he said Duchong Kimprofessor of political science at FAU.

When the poll asked about a three-candidate race, including independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the race swung in Biden’s favor (41-39%), and Kennedy received eight percent of all voters. The numbers changed to 43-42, or 7 among likely voters, still in Biden’s favor but within that MOE.

The group also surveyed 1,012 Pennsylvanians about the Democratic U.S. Senate race Bob Casey Jr. and Republican challenger Dave McCormick. Incumbent Casey received 48% of all voters, while McCormick received 40% and 7% were undecided. Among likely voters, the lead fell by one point, 49-42%.

Not surprisingly, over a third of respondents indicated that the economy was the most crucial thing to them (37%), followed by immigration (18%) and abortion (16%).

Respondents were also asked whether they believed Trump was guilty of the crime he was charged with in New York state, with half saying yes, 37% saying no and 13% saying they didn’t know. When asked if prison time was deserved, 47% said no and 42% said yes.

Across the sample, 49% believe Trump is guilty of wrongdoing. This view is more widespread among black voters (69%), Latinos (59%), and college-educated white voters (50%) than among white voters without a college degree (40%), the only group in which there are many , who do not believe in Trump’s guilt. Belief in guilt was also higher in women (54%) than in men (44%).

“Trump’s legal threat could rally some of his base,” said Dr. Kevin Wagner, co-director of FAU’s PolComLab and professor of political science. “The majority of his supporters do not believe he is guilty, while Biden voters overwhelmingly believe he committed crimes.”

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