The Cook Political Report called it a “flashing red warning light” for GOP congressional candidates this fall.
In a survey of districts rated by CPR as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat – districts that President Donald Trump won by an average of two points in 2024 – Democrats have a six-point advantage in overall congressional votes, 50-44%
Three of these counties are in Pennsylvania:
- PA-07, Representative Ryan Mackenzie
- PA-08, Representative Rob Bresnahan
- PA-10, Rep. Scott Perry
If survey results proves true in November, Democrats will find the three seats needed to gain majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the Keystone State alone.
Currently, Cook’s political report has all three races in Pennsylvania as Toss Ups. The only location that appears to be in the game at this point is PA-01, occupied by Representative Brian Fitzpatrick. CPR calls its contest “probably Republican.”
The poll notes that Democrats have an intensity advantage, evident largely in this cycle’s special elections, where Democratic voters appear to be more motivated to vote. The poll also showed this with Democrats having a 14-point lead over GOP voters in battleground districts who say they are most interested in voting this fall.
Across the 36 districts surveyed, support for Trump is deeply frail, with just 42% approving and 58% disapproving of his job performance. These needy numbers are driven by independent voters who gave the president a 70% disapproval rating.
The last successful midterm for Democrats was in 2018, when independents moved blue by 12 points. In this poll, Democrats win independent voters in the overall vote by 25 points.
Surely it’s because independents like Democrats, right?
Not so rapid, my friend.
Nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable view of Democrats in Congress, and only 36% say the party’s ideas and values are “aligned” with their own views.
But independent voters see this election more as a referendum on Trump than a choice between the two parties. In fact, 63% of independent voters who currently support the Democratic candidate say their decision is more about opposing what the Republican Party stands for than showing support for the Democratic Party. More than half of independent voters (60%) say they are more worried about a Republican-controlled Congress that fails to “stop Trump” than a Democrat-controlled Congress that “only focuses on impeaching Trump.”
“Our data shows that Trump is increasingly becoming a liability for Republicans across the country, creating a more favorable environment for Democrats in November — provided they avoid unforced errors,” he said. Lindsay doesn’t givealso the democratic firm New River Strategies.
“Despite Democrats’ initial lead in the general election, their party and leadership remain deeply unpopular,” Republican pollster said Greg Stremple GS Strategic Group. “The Republican path to maintaining the majority requires that this election be a choice, not a referendum on President Trump.”
The poll of 1,029 likely voters was conducted April 7-14, 2026, in 36 House districts that were rated competitive by CPR on April 3, 2026. The margin of error is +/- 3.06%.
