Why Tuesday’s vice presidential debate may matter more than history suggests

WASHINGTON – Tim Walz and J.D. Vance may have a chance to change the political landscape on Tuesday in their first and only debate.

Vice presidents have traditionally served as political attack dogs, tearing into opponents so that their running mate can appear above the political fray. This has generally become less true since former President Donald Trump violated political norms.

But Walz, Minnesota’s Democratic governor, gained national notoriety for calling rival Republicans “weird.” Vance, the GOP’s junior senator from Ohio, tore into Vice President Kamala Harris’s immigration push, most notably by spreading a false story about Haitian immigrants in his home state, which Trump then brought up during his own debate with Harris.

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Here’s a look at past vice presidential debates and the larger role of the office Walz and Vance are seeking.

What is the job of the vice president?

The vice president presides over the Senate and has the power to cut ties, which Harris has done a record 33 times. Last year it exceeded the previous high resultwhich had been held since John C. Calhoun was vice president from 1825–1832. The incumbent also ceremonially presides over Congress as it certifies the election results, which Vice President Mike Pence did even after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 1, December 6, 2021, in an attempt to stop the process and transfer of power, chanting, “Hang Mike Pence!”

But the vice president’s main job is to be ready to take over if something happens to him. Nine people did so after a president died or left office – the last was Gerald Ford, who became president after Richard Nixon resigned in 1974.

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The 25th Amendment to the Constitution, ratified in 1967, clarified the rules of succession, stating that the vice president would become president “in the event of the president’s removal from office or his death or resignation.” It also allowed the president and Congress to nominate and confirm a new vice president should that office become vacant.

Vice presidential historian Joel K. Goldstein said two recent assassination attempts against Trump “elevate the importance of the succession.” But he added that many voters see vice presidential candidates as adjuncts to the candidates who elected them, not necessarily as potential future presidents themselves.

“People actually look at someone and ask, are they ready to be a heartbeat away?” – Goldstein said. “But it’s also a question of how good a decision-maker the person who elected them is.”

Unforgettable vice presidential debates with Palin, Bentsen and Harris

In 1992, Adm. James Stockdale, an associate of third-party candidate Ross Perot, was in no doubt but seemed bewildered when he opened the debate with: “Who am I? Why am I here?” His subsequent response to the question, “I didn’t have my hearing aid on,” only reinforced this belief.

The debate between No. 2 was highly anticipated in 2008, when Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate and saw a surge in the polls. But her clash with then-Delaware senator Joe Biden is best remembered for Palin walking up to him before taking off and asking, “Can I call you Joe?” It was Palin who tried to refrain from mistakenly calling her opponent “O’Biden,” confusing Biden’s name with that of his running mate, then-Illinois senator Barack Obama.

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Vice presidential candidate and Democratic senator from Texas, Lloyd Bentsen, in 1988 delivered a edged response to his opponent, Republican senator Dan Quayle of Indiana. After Quayle compared himself to John F. Kennedy, Bentsen responded: “You are not Kennedy’s Jack, Senator. But it was one of the few good points for the Democratic Party in a race they easily lost.

In 2020, Harris clashed with Republican Vice President Mike Pence, and when he tried to interrupt her, he declared, “I’m saying,” a sentiment he has repeated throughout the campaign. However, both candidates may have been overshadowed by the fly that perched on Pence’s hair for what seemed like an eternity.

Will the debate have an impact on the campaign?

Historically, a candidate’s No. 2 pick has had little impact on Election Day. This year may be different.

Historical analysis by Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston, suggests that voters are not really influenced by candidate to candidate. Even the idea of ​​using a pick to balance the ticket — like pairing the first major party candidate who is a woman of color with a white man in the case of Harris choosing Walz — may also be overblown.

“We have evidence that they actually vote for the presidential candidate,” Jones said of Americans over the decades.

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The key caveat may be that given how close the current race is expected to be to swing states, “it’s always possible that it could be relevant at the margin,” Jones said.

One reason the Walz-Vance debate may change more minds this year is that Harris and Trump have only shared the stage once, in early September. That means Tuesday could be the last chance before Election Day for voters to see firsthand how both seats stack up.

However, it’s more likely that both Walz and Vance will simply have to avoid making memorable unforced errors that can be repeated indefinitely. Jones said such a race-changing gaffe is unlikely, but not impossible.

“They are disciplined,” Jones said. “But one is enough.”

» READ MORE: Some Republicans worry that Trump’s debate performance could hurt his chances of winning Pa.