We’re only a month away from Pennsylvania Voter registration deadline is October 21 and Republicans continue to gain ground across the state. This will come as no surprise to anyone who follows my regular updatessince the Pennsylvania Republican Party spent the last decade or so gradually reducing the Democratic Party’s advantage in registrations.
A little over last monthFor example, that lead shrank from 356,207 to 343,071. This was not because Democrats lost support, as the party gained 23,711 registrants during that time, but because Republicans overtook them, gaining 36,847 registrants.
However, a quick glance at the map will reveal that amidst this general history, there are many tales to be told about trends across the community. So let’s dive in.
Quick note: I’m exploring our changing electoral trends by tracking the gains one party has made in registrations over the other party. For example, R+500 means the Republican Party gained a net 500 more registered voters in that county than the Democratic Party during that period, while D+500 indicates the opposite.
Central
- Blair: R+438
- Bradford: R+281
- Cameron: R+14
- Center:D+55
- Clearfield: R+336
- Clinton: R+222
- Colombia: R+242
- Canadian deer: R+161
- Hunting: R+176
- Juniata: R+99
- Lycoming: R+296
- McKean: R+171
- Mifflin: R+275
- Installation: R+18
- North Tumberland: R+284
- Potter: R+43
- Codes: R+115
- Sullivan: R+38
- Tioga: R+145
- Union: D+11
The fall semester has begun at colleges across the country over the past month, and we can see its effect here in the blue hue of Centre and Union counties, home to Penn State and Bucknell universities, respectively. But beyond those campuses, the GOP has continued to drum up registrants in this rural region.
Northeast
- Coal: R+282
- Lackawanna: R+494
- Lucerne: R+809
- Monroe: R+248
- Pike: R+253
- Schuylkill: R+623
- Susquehanna: R+219
- Wayne: R+298
- Wyoming: R+123
Vice President Kamala Harris did a recent campaign stop in Wilkes-Barrethe largest city in Luzerne County and host of many Donald Trump rallies over the past nine years. The Democratic Party is trying to stem losses in Luzerne, a county where its May 2015 registration advantage The number of 45,467 has been reduced to just 233.
WITH Scranton Joe on the ballot, Trump has a unique opportunity to win votes across the region, especially in Lackawanna. But there is a danger that Trump/Vance Team Hostility Towards Ukraine it can harm them rural areas largely Ukrainian-American here.
Northwest
- Spicy: R+129
- Crawford: R+240
- Eric: R+311
- Forest: R+15
- Jefferson: R+157
- Mercer: R+341
- Wenango: R+218
- Warren: R+76
AND a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll examined Erie and Northampton and found that Harris led by four points in the northwest corner of the state. To put that in context, Erie supported the statewide winner in 18 of 19 presidential elections since World War II (Massachusetts Governor Mike Dukakis in 1988 was the only exception.) I expect this streak to continue in November.
Walz campaigns in Erie, Pennsylvania’s leading county
South Central
- Adams: R+247
- Bedford: R+274
- Cumberland: R+67
- Dolphin: R+28
- Franklin: R+344
- Fulton: R+75
- Lancaster: R+812
- Lebanon: R+420
- Perry: R+152
- York: +1,048 PLN
The South Central region was probably the most encouraging region for the Trump campaign because blue trending counties such as Cumberland and Dauphin both still saw gains for the GOP. More importantly for Trump’s team is his performance in populous red counties Lancaster and York. Remember that Harris’ campaign is aimed at reducing Trump’s advantage in Lancaster, especially – taking Josh Shapiro narrowly avoids victory in 2022 as an inspiration — Harris’ colleague Tim Walz campaigned here at the beginning of this month.
Southeast
- Berks: R+628
- Dollars: R+1,316
- Chester: D+203
- Delaware: D+693
- Lehigh: R+456
- Montgomery: D+280
- Northampton: R+196
- Philadelphia: D+4,747
Not surprisingly, the biggest change of all — and the best for Democrats — came in Philadelphia. In JulyI noted that Harris will almost certainly have to match or break Obama’s record in Philadelphia (492,339 in 2012) to win Pennsylvania’s crucial 19 electoral votes. Fortunately for her, she’s gaining not only in the city, but also in three of the city’s suburbs, where she’ll also need huge margins.
But Bucks still stands out on this map. After all, Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery voted as a trio for the same presidential candidate. Already 21 consecutive electionsstarting from 1940. Nevertheless, despite the already becoming a majority Republican county last summerRepublicans continue to grow their ranks here. My theory, as a Bucks County native, is that Lower Bucks is one of the last Democratic ancestral areas state. So it’s more of a lagging indicator than a sign of things to come, although we won’t know for sure until November.
Southwest
- Allegheny: D+592
- Armstrong: R+320
- Beaver: R+541
- Butler: R+484
- Cambria: R+759
- Fayette: R+621
- Green: R+202
- Indiana: R+246
- Lawrence: R+371
- Somerset: R+226
- Washington: R+736
- West Pomeranian Voivodeship: R+958
The same day Kamala Harris shook her head in Wilkes-Barre, she did too stopped in Johnstownlargest city in Cambria County. It is fighting an uphill battle in a county where The Democrats’ lead of 13,739 registrations became a Republican lead of 13,644 registrations run between September 2016 and September 2024.
Trump assumes that all these efforts will be in vain and that the Southwest will once again be able to secure his victory, as that was eight years ago. Harris’ campaign, on the other hand, will be aided by the Allegheny County results as it seeks to break through Biden’s lead in the 2020 vote was 147,846 votes There.
The board is almost complete, although the final month before the registration deadline will provide us with final guidance on the Pennsylvania electorate before Election Day.
