Trump Polls Better on Pennsylvania Economy, But Harris Is Closing Gap, Especially Among Young Voters

Just two months into her turbulent Democratic campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris is making progress on the most critical issue for Pennsylvania voters: the economy.

A modern Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll finds that while Trump still enjoys support on economic issues, Harris is gaining confidence among likely voters in Pennsylvania — especially those under 30.

The poll, conducted days after the presidential debate in Philadelphia, found that 51% of likely voters still trust Trump more on the economy, compared with 47% who trust Harris more. Overall, Harris leads Trump by nearly 4 percentage points statewide.

And while hiring is rising and inflation is slowing, voters in the state are only slightly more likely to say the economy is doing well than they were in May. The poll found that 51% of likely voters in Pennsylvania would rate current economic conditions as “poor,” down from 52% in a similar poll conducted in May.

The biggest change since the spring is that a Democrat has topped the ballot, and a larger share of voters trust Harris on the economy than President Joe Biden, who had 42% of likely voters trust her on the issue in a May poll.

Barbara Cherry, a 64-year-old cleaner in the Fashion District who works with her union, SEIU Local 32BJ, said she has heard potential voters complain about the economy and connect it to the Biden administration.

“They say the economy was better when Trump was in office,” Cherry said. “And I tell people that [Harris is] only the vice president. She doesn’t have the final say.”

Here are three things the poll showed about how voters in the state view the economy — and the upcoming election.

Young people saw the biggest increase in economic confidence for Harris, the biggest drop for Trump

More voters aged 18 to 29 trust Harris than Biden on the economy. Just 33% of younger respondents trusted Biden on the issue in May, compared with 55% who trusted Harris in a September poll.

On the other hand, Trump has lost a significant amount of confidence in the economy among young people, falling to 41% in September from 65% in May.

Harris’ historic candidacy mobilized young voters, as evidenced by the outpouring of memes on social media.

Her economic priorities, which include expanding the child tax credit for families with children under 1 and investing in affordable housing, could also appeal to younger voters. Still, voters aged 30 to 44 are more likely to believe Trump will do a better job of handling the economy, with 52% favoring the president and 46% favoring Harris on the issue.

Harris’ growing support in the suburbs appears unaffected by the worsening situation feelings about the economy

In the latest poll, 48% of suburban Philadelphia voters say the economy is doing poorly, up from 36% in May.

But those feelings didn’t seem to subside. Harris’ support is growing in suburban counties. In the latest poll, 58% of likely voters in the Philadelphia suburbs said they would vote for Harris if the election were held when the survey was conducted, between Sept. 11 and 16. In May, 52% of respondents in collar counties said they would vote for Biden

Trump’s support remained steady, with 39% of suburban respondents saying they would vote for him in both polls. These key counties could tip the election in Harris’ favor if she maintains her lead.

Trump’s support in rural and small towns remains steady, Harris sees slight increase

People in rural and small-town Pennsylvania are still more likely to say the economy is doing badly, but that percentage has fallen slightly, from 62% in May to 57% in September. That group’s overall support for Trump has remained relatively stable.

The percentage of respondents from rural areas and small towns who believe the economy is doing well increased from 18% in May to 22% in September.

These coveted voters, who have been hit especially demanding by the changing economic landscape, don’t think Harris would do a better job handling the economy than Biden did in May. But the share of rural and small-town voters who said they would vote for her rose 5 percentage points to 36% over those who said they would vote for Biden.