Vice President Kamala Harris has an advantage over the former president Donald Trump in Pennsylvania as well as in two key Keystone State counties, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released Monday evening.
Harris, the Democratic nominee, has a three-point lead over the Republican nominee, 49%-46%, in the survey of 500 likely voters in the Commonwealth conducted Sept. 12-15. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points.
Pennsylvania is considered a key swing state in both campaigns, and the state’s 19 electoral votes will largely determine who holds the White House for the next four years.
The poll showed the vice president also ahead of the former president in Northampton and Erie counties — the two counties that determined the winner of the last two presidential elections.
Harris had a five-point lead (50-45%) over Trump in Northampton County, located in eastern Pennsylvania and home to the cities of Bethlehem and Easton. President Joe Biden In 2020, after Trump won the election, he won 50-49% of the vote countywide Hillary Clinton50-46% in 2016
In the northwest corner of the commonwealth, Harris has a four-point lead over Trump, 48%-44% — larger than either winner in the last two elections. Biden squeezed out a 1-point lead (50%-49%) in winning 2020, while Trump won Erie by two points, 49%-47%, four years earlier.
Suffolk polled 300 likely voters in each of those counties, and the margin of error was +/- 5.7 points.
The gender gap widens in the Keystone State, as Harris leads among women in Northampton by 18 points (55-37%) and by 20 points in Erie (55-35%). Trump leads among men, but not by the same margins (Northampton 53-44%, Erie 52-42%).
“It’s a female advantage on steroids,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “In all three data sets, the female advantage is almost twice as large as Trump’s advantage among men.”
In a state poll, abortion rights were named the most crucial issue by 11% of likely voters in Pennsylvania. The most crucial issue for likely voters was inflation/the economy (35%), followed by immigration (14%) and “unifying the nation” (13%).
This is a developing story that will be updated.
