Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro still has a double-digit advantage over them State Treasurer Stacy Garrityalthough the gap has narrowed Quinnipiac University poll of 895 self-identified registered voters in the Keystone State.
Shapiro received 53% support among those polled, while Garrity received 40% support. For comparison, in February the incumbent governor led by 18 points, at 55-37%. Interestingly, among men, Garrity leads with a result of 48-46%, while among women Shapiro leads with a result of 60-33%.
Latest surveys
- Quinnipiac (July 2026): Shapiro 53, Garrity 40
- PennLive (June 2026): Shapiro 54, Garrity 29
- Franklin and Marshall (June 2026): Shapiro 50, Garrity 28
- Susquehanna Poll (April 2026): Shapiro 58, Garrity 36
- Quinnipiac (February 2026): Shapiro 55, Garrity 37
Shapiro continues to have a mighty grip on Democrats, with 96% of them identifying with the party supporting the former attorney general, and he also has 58% support from independents. Garrity, who was elected to a second term as state treasurer in 2024, received the support of 87% of Republicans and 29% of independents.
The governor continues to receive high marks for his handling of his position, with 56% approval and 34% disapproval. Shapiro receives positive reviews from both genders: men aged +7 (48-41) and women aged +36 (63-27).
The survey was conducted in the field from July 9 to 13 with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
The gigantic 5-point swing can be somewhat attributed to AI data centers and voter reaction to Shapiro’s handling of the issue. Nearly a third of respondents (34%) disapprove of the way he runs data centers, while a quarter (24%) approve.
“There is a big wave of negativity among Pennsylvania voters over AI data center saturation,” Quinnipiac poll analyst said Tim Malloy. “There is nothing artificial about Pennsylvania voters’ approach to the emergence of artificial intelligence. Opposition grows as the inevitable new industry takes root in their districts. And Governor Shapiro receives low marks for managing their emergence.”
Personal finances may also play a role, with more than 4 in 10 voters (44%) saying they are in a worse financial situation than they were a year ago. This correlates with survey conducted last month by Franklin & Marshall College which shows that 47% believe they are worse off.
“Many Pennsylvania voters are looking at their finances, looking back to last July and seeing things getting worse,” Malloy said.
More than half of voters (52%) believe the country’s economy is deteriorating. No wonder there were partisan divisions. Among Republicans, 43% believe the country’s economy is improving, compared with 16% of independents and just 1% of Democrats.
Favorability ratings
Josh Shapiro | 51% positively, 33% unfavorably, 14% have not heard enough about him | +18
Stacy Garrity | 22% positively, 18% unfavorably, 58% have not heard enough about it | +4
Shapiro is +6 among men (44-38) and +29 among women (57-28). Garrity is +13 with male voters but minus-3 with women.
The most vital problems
- Economics (74%)
- Maintenance costs (73%)
- Healthcare (66%)
- Ethics in government (57%)
- Immigration (57%)
Senator John Fetterman
More than half of those surveyed (52%) would like Fetterman to leave the Democratic Party, while 31% would like him to stay.
“Democrats would like to show him the door. Republicans seem to welcome him. That’s the political irony of Senator John Fetterman,” Malloy added.
Work approval | 48% support, 41% disagree, 11% have no opinion | +7
Republicans 77-12 (+65), Democrats 19-69 (-50), Independents 44-48 (-4)
Men 55-39 (+16), Women -3 (41-44)
Senator Dave McCormick
Work approval | 40% support, 33% disagree, 28% have no opinion
Republicans 68-11 (+57), Democrats 18-52 (-34), Independents 33-39 (-6)
Men 42-32 (+10), Women 38-33 (+5)
President Donald Trump
Respondents continue to express dismay at Trump’s handling of the presidency. In the QU poll, Trump is minus 19 points, with 39% approval and 58% disapproval. The gap is widening as Trump was minus 15 (40-55) in February.
On the economy, Trump is also down -19 (39-58), a two-point difference (39-56) from the last Quinnipiac survey.
Midterm elections
If the election were held today, nearly half of respondents would like to see the Democratic Party take control of the U.S. House of Representatives, compared with 43% who want the GOP to govern again. There is a wide gender gap: 51% of men want Republicans to remain in control, while 57% of women want Democrats to be in the majority.
Democratic Party
A warning sign for the Party in Blue, as almost half of respondents (49%) said the party had moved too far to the left, including 1 in 7 Democratic respondents.
AI data centers
Controversy surrounding AI data centers continues unabated in the Commonwealth, as more than three-quarters of respondents (76%) say they follow the news very or quite closely. Nearly 3 in 4 (74%) say they would oppose building an AI data center in their community, while 16% say they would support it. In February, that number was 68-20.
