What a difference a few weeks can make.
Just three weeks ago, Pennsylvania Republicans we sailed along as they continued to chip away at the Democratic Party’s registration lead in the Keystone State. Of course, the latest voter registration update came just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
So, ahead of next week’s Democratic National Convention, we wanted to first see if Harris’s rise has caused a noticeable change in the numbers. As you can see from the map above, some of the most liberal counties in the commonwealth are finally starting to get excited about this presidential contest.
But before we get into specifics, let’s take a quick look at integersPennsylvania Democrats managed to reverse their downward trend – they 2214 registered lost for example, between April and July – and 11,650 people actually registered in the last three weeks.
On the other hand, during the same period, Republicans registered 16,425 people, while independents and third parties registered 11,871 times.
As a result, the Democratic Party’s statewide lead narrowed from 360,982 to 356,207.
But in all of these statewide numbers, we’re already seeing some intriguing county trends that give us key clues about the campaign ahead. Let’s dive in.
Quick note: I’m exploring our changing electoral trends by tracking the gains one party has amassed in registrations over the other party. For example, R+500 means the Republican Party gained a net 500 more registered voters in that county than the Democratic Party during that period, while D+500 indicates the reverse.
Central
- Blair: R+86
- Bradford: R+148
- Cameron: R+4
- Center: R+96
- Clearfield: R+144
- Clinton: R+45
- Colombia: R+84
- Canadian deer: R+65
- Hunting: R+61
- Juniata: R+40
- Lycoming: R+94
- McKean: R+41
- Mifflin: R+83
- Installation: R+29
- North Tumberland: R+97
- Potter: R+33
- Codes: R+40
- Sullivan: R+10
- Tioga: R+57
- Union: R+13
In this region, I always pay special attention to Centre and Union counties — home to Penn State and Bucknell universities — as gauges of student voters. But since school is still not back in session, we’ll have to wait until next time to get a clear picture of how students are influencing enrollment.
Northeast
- Coal: R+88
- Lackawanna: R+175
- Lucerne: R+328
- Monroe: R+88
- Pike: R+59
- Schuylkill: R+184
- Susquehanna: R+55
- Wayne: R+118
- Wyoming: R+8
WITH Scranton Joe out of the vote, former President Donald Trump, the GOP candidate, needs to make an even bigger push in this corner of the state. He already did Wilkes-Barre one of his regular campaign stops and He is return to the city on Saturday. This strategy makes sense because the democratic corridor that runs through Lackawanna and Luzerne is probably his most tempting target for November.
Northwest
- Spicy: R+88
- Crawford: R+105
- Eric: R+165
- Forest: R+13
- Jefferson: R+79
- Mercer: R+186
- Wenango: R+33
- Warren: R+43
Another encouraging sign for the Republican Party came from Erie, Obama-Trump-Biden District Where Pennsylvania Republicans continue to win. If Trump is to reclaim the Keystone State, he will need to make record gains even in these rural Northwest counties.
South Central
- Adams: R+148
- Bedford: R+84
- Cumberland: R+71
- Dolphin: D+39
- Franklin: R+108
- Fulton: R+40
- Lancaster: +350 PLN
- Lebanon: R+107
- Perry: R+47
- York: R+460
Democrats made their first breakthrough in Dauphin County, home to the capital of Harrisburg. The Harris-Walz team will try to break Obama’s highest score in 2008 here and get as close as you can to Flipper Cumberland, which is located just across the Susquehanna River.
Meanwhile, Republicans must be heartened to see these gains in Lancaster and York, most populated red counties in the Commonwealth. In recent years, Democrats have managed to make surprisingly well in these two counties – Governor Josh Shapiro almost won Lancaster in 2022 – and Harris’ campaign is actively aiming cut Trump’s advantage in this case.
Southeast
- Berks: R+374
- Dollars: R+270
- Chester: D+353
- Delaware: D+316
- Lehigh: D+13
- Montgomery: D+439
- Northampton: R+171
- Philadelphia: D+1,682
As you might expect, the biggest change came in Philadelphia, perhaps aided by last week’s Harris-Waltz rally at Temple University. The Pennsylvania Democratic Party also saw gains in three of the four Philadelphia counties where the Harris-Walz team will huge margins are needed to win the crucial 19 Commonwealth electoral votes.
On the other hand, Republicans continue to post impressive results in Bucks, he won the GOP majority last month for the first time since spring 2008. They are also catching up in Northampton, the second state Obama-Trump-Biden District.
At the same time, the party has seen some slippage in neighboring Lehigh, which is worth watching. If Harris is indeed gaining momentum among Latino voters in the stateWe will see signs of this in the Lehigh Valley.
Southwest
- Allegheny: D+31
- Armstrong: R+127
- Beaver: R+222
- Butler: +400 PLN
- Cambria: R+314
- Fayette: R+268
- Green: R+68
- Indiana: R+114
- Lawrence: R+164
- Somerset: R+84
- Washington: R+172
- West Pomeranian Voivodeship: +400 PLN
Republicans once again posted the biggest gains in the state’s Appalachian region: once the ancestors of the Southwest Democrats This eight years ago he helped Donald Trump winThe only exception is Allegheny County, where Democrats are finally getting ready for November, when they will try exceed the 60% barrier for the first time since 1964.
Up to this point, Harris and Walz are we start the bus tour in Pittsburgh on Sundaywith other stops in Pennsylvania reportedly planned. This pre-convention trek actually reflects a journey through the convention that Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine took together throughout the Commonwealth of Nations in 2016. The 2024 team is undoubtedly hoping for greater success on this expedition.
So what do these results tell us? Well, there are some real signs of hope for Pennsylvania Democrats, as Harris’ nomination is generating physical enthusiasm for the first time this election cycle. But the Pennsylvania GOP has significant momentum with less than three months to go before election night. Until then, we’ll just have to keep an eye on these numbers.
