In response to the trade war released by the United States, foreign governments returned, imposing retaliation tariffs to products perceived as essential in the President of the States, Donald Trump won in the November election.
Kentucky BourbonIN Harley-Davidson motorcycles manufactured in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania i agricultural products In the Middle West they were subjected to modern fees.
In Swing-State Pennsylvania, one valuable sector now observing the Global Tit-For-Tat tariff is the dairy industry, which is one of the best agricultural exports in the State I Supports 52,000 jobs.
Celebrated every year at Pennsylvania Farm Show in Harrisburg-which contains a 1000-pound-button-breeding sculpture, the dairy are a mature political goal when foreign countries try to make the Trump base feel pain from his policy. Analysts say that this can augment the pressure on the Republicans in the Congress directed by GOP in order to weigh phones from voters to the withdrawal of the trade war.
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“I will be honest, the vast majority of farmers voted for Trump. It wasn’t like it was a secret. He wasn’t quiet about it,” said 55-year-old Rob Barley in Lancaster. “So we are in a sense, we wait and see how it looks on the other side. Understanding that in the short term there may be some pain to open some markets and so on.”
China and Canada have already introduced Tariffs for American agricultural goodsIncluding dairy products, but a huge wild card is Mexico – the highest export market for American dairy. Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum at the beginning of this month He swore to take revenge on 25% of American tariffs on import, but It finally refrained After Trump Detained fees for some goods.
Trump undertook to raise this pause in April, raising the specter that Mexico and other trading partners can reflect. “For decades we have been deceived by almost every country on earth and we will not let it happen,” said Trump, a republican, in This month, we are talking to Congress. He added that his trade policy would be “great for an American farmer.”
How Financial markets and the trust of consumers has fallen, the president refused to exclude the possibilities of recession And he admits that the tariffs will cause “slight disturbances”.
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The second largest milk farms in the country
Pennsylvania has about 5,000 dairy farms, every second in the country for Wisconsin, according to Harrisburg non-profit The center of dairy perfection. The center says that 468,000 cows produce around 1.2 billion milk gallons a year.
Dairy farmers in Pennsylvania and all over the country depend on access to foreign markets. According to the latest data developed by the Department of Agriculture, Pennsylvania exported $ 364 million in dairy products in 2023.
Mexico included the largest share in dairy products produced in Keystone last year – 18% – and then Chile and Canada, in accordance with the separate data of the US universal census.
“One day of milk production for which six is ​​intended for international consumers,” Krysta Harden, president and general director of the American Dairy Export Council, he said earlier this month. She said that sales to Mexico, Canada and China are 51% of American dairy exports.
Certainly, some in the dairy industry have their own complaints about trading partners, accusing, for example, Canada adopting patronistic means. However, they say that the extended dispute will not aid American farmers.
The industry suffered the first Trump tariff for Chinese imports, because retaliation from Beijing led to around $ 2.6 billion of lost revenues from milk farm in 2019–2021, according to Export councilNon -profit membership organization that represents producers, processors and cooperatives.
This time the rates may be higher because the second administration of Trump took up a more aggressive attitude about trade – even raising North American trade agreement he negotiated During the first term – this experts say that there is no up-to-date precedent.
In response, Canada applied 25% tariff to American goods worth $ 21 billion, including chocolate, coffee and dairy products. The country later announced another set of tariffs for ponderous machines and other goods.
For their part, China placed a modern 10% tariff for agricultural products, including dairy products. Most of these products had a retaliation hooks from the first term of Trump, According to American Farm Bureau Federation. For example, the butter has been subject to a 25% tariff from 2020.
Reuters announced in January that Mexico plans, among others, to head to pork, cheese and bourbon. They were chosen “because they have a great impact on regions that mostly voted for Trump”, the source of knowledge about Mexico’s plans informed the information organization. The Embassy of Mexico in Washington did not answer the request for comment.
“They chose products that they think they have to administrate political pressure to change our tariff policies” Terrence GuayA professor of international business at Pennsylvania State University said about American trading partners.
“The countries are clever and try to choose products in politically sensitive states, and Pennsylvania is clearly one of them,” he said.
Governor Josh Shapiro, a democrat and a potential pretender for the White House in 2028, emphasized this problem, accusing Trump at the beginning of this month of “raising costs for farmers and producers”.
Lower prices
“It is too early to measure the full impact on American agriculture on current retaliation tariffs,” Betty Resnick, an economist at the agricultural office, He wrote in the analysis on March 18. But, she said, the tariffs “will certainly reduce the demand for American products” in the highest agricultural export markets.
“Farmers cannot set their own prices and are subject to whims of these markets,” she wrote.
Reduced demand in international markets may reduce domestic prices, said Guay, Professor Penn State. “What can be good for consumers who want to buy cheaper cheese, ice cream and milk, but it will be problematic for milk breeders who will see that the prices of their raw milk may fall,” he said.
Alternatively, American farmers could try to sell their products in other markets around the world – but Trump raised the tariffs to a wide range of countries that could answer the same textbook as Canada and China, said Guay.
“So, depending on how it happens in the coming months,” he said, “dairy farmers will be very difficult to find out how much production and where to sell them.”
Barley, whose family is the owner Star Rock Farms In Lancaster, he said that most of his milk is sold in the country. But one of his huge clients, a national cooperative Dairy Farmers of AmericaAlso export to foreign markets.
“At this point, I don’t think it would affect the market,” Barley said about the trade war. He looks to see what was happening to Mexico, what he said he was “an excellent trading partner.”
“I give President Trump the benefits of doubt,” said Barley. “Let’s see how it works. I would not be really happy if … ultimately we get mutual tariffs from Mexico.”
