The latest New York Times/Siena College poll brings good news for a pair of Democratic candidates.
Vice President Kamala Harris reached the 50 percent threshold in the survey of 693 registered voters in the Commonwealth conducted between August 6 and 9, while former President Donald Trump was 46 percent. It should be noted that the difference of 4.0 percentage points is within the margin of error of +/- 4.0.
Beneficiary Senator Bob Casey Jr. also crossed the 50% mark, polling 51% against its Republican rival Dave McCormick which received 37 percent support.
President
More than 9 in 10 (92%) respondents said they were almost certain or very likely to vote in the November election. Two percent said they were not at all likely to vote.
In July, the NYT/Siena poll showed Trump leading Harris 48%-46%, a margin that grew by six points in the Democrat’s favor. When other candidates were included in the hearing, Harris’ lead halved to 45%-43% for independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. bringing in five percent profit.
Harris has a plus-2 rating (50-48) — up 17 points since the last survey — while Trump has a minus-4 rating (48-52) — a five-point improvement from last month.
Forty-four percent of those surveyed said Harris was “too liberal or progressive,” while nearly the same number (43%) said she was not too liberal or progressive.
On the other hand, more and more people think Trump is becoming “too conservative” — that number has risen from 32% last fall to 38% in this survey.
In May, just 58 percent of those surveyed were satisfied with their choice of candidates in the fall presidential election. That number rose to 77 percent among respondents in the latest hearing.
More than 1 in 3 (35%) said that if Trump were elected, he would completely tear up the system, up 10 percent since the spring poll. Forty-two percent said that any changes he made would be “very bad for the country,” up 8 percent. A third disagreed, saying the changes would be “very good for the country.”
When asked if the phrase “she’s smart” was an right description of the candidate, nearly two-thirds (68%) agreed that it described Harris, compared to 58% for Trump. Fifty-seven percent thought Harris had the right temperament for the job, while only 45% thought the same about Trump.
Vice President
Newly elected Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Waltz starts with a plus-9 rating (37-28), while his Republican counterpart JD Vance is minus-13 (36-49).
Two in nine respondents (22%) said they were “enthusiastic” about Harris’ selection of Walz as her vice presidential running mate. An additional 27% indicated they were “pleased but unenthusiastic,” while 11 percent were “angry” about the selection.
Fewer than 1 in 5 respondents (19%) indicated they were “enthusiastic” about Vance’s selection on the Republican ticket, while 25 percent said they were “pleased but not enthusiastic.” And 23% said they were “angry” about Vance’s selection.
Senate
Among likely voters, Casey topped the 50 percent mark in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat, receiving 51 percent support. It was the fifth time in the last seven polls compiled by PoliticsPA that the Democrat had reached 50 percent or higher.
McCormick’s 37 percent result is the Republican’s lowest since delayed June, when he had 36 percent in a Commonwealth Foundation poll.
Big problem
Asked to choose just one issue, Pennsylvanians said the economy, including jobs and the stock market, was most crucial (21%) in deciding how to vote in November. Immigration (16%) and abortion (14%) came in second and third, respectively. Respondents were evenly split (48%) on which candidate was better prepared to address the issue they saw as most crucial.
Who would do a better job
- Economy: Trump 52-46% (+6)
- Abortion: Harris 59-35% (+24)
- Immigration: Trump 51-46% (+5)
- Democracy: Harris 54-42% (+12)
Various
- Which information source do you apply most often?
- Fox News 17%, Network Television 16%, Social Media 16%
- How often, if at all, do you apply social media like Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and others?
- Often 49%, Sometimes 20%, Never 17%
- How often (if you are a social media user), if at all, do you apply TikTok?
