The latest poll from Muhlenberg College shows what we’ve all known for a long time: the presidential race in Pennsylvania will be tight.
How tight?
Muhlenberg surveyed 450 likely voters and a tie of 48-48% was found between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Four percent of respondents selected “none/other” as their response, and an additional 1% selected “not sure.”
In the race for the United States Senate Class I seat in Pennsylvania – individuals serving from January 3, 2019 to January 3, 2025 – Senator Bob Casey Jr. received 48 percent support among respondents, while the Republican Party opponent Dave McCormick came in with 43%. Five percent said “neither,” while 4% said they were “not sure.” Casey’s five-point lead is within the poll’s +/-6% margin of error.
Presidential crosstabs
- Man: Trump +23 (59-36)
- Woman: Harris +21 (59-38)
- White: Asset +12 (54-42)
- Person of Color: Harris +39 (66-27)
- Non-College Degree: Trump +21 (58-37)
- Age 18-29: Harris +26 (61-35)
- “I’m definitely voting”: Harris +1 (49-48)
- “Very likely to vote”: Trump +17 (50-33)
US Senate Crosstabs
- Male: McCormick +15 (53-38)
- Woman: Casey +23 (57-34)
- White: McCormick +3 (47-44)
- Person of Color: Casey +31 (59-28)
- Non-College Diploma: McCormick +15 (52-37)
- Age 18-29: Casey +24 (59-35)
- “I’m definitely voting”: Casey +5 (48-43)
- “Very likely to vote”: McCormick +7 (45-38)
Favor
- Harris, minus-3 (47-50%)
- Trump, minus-7 (45-52%)
- Casey, minus-5 (33-38%)
- McCormick, minus-10 (28-38%)
Trump’s approval rating has risen steadily since December, from minus-23 (33-56) to minus-7 (45-52). Casey’s approval rating has fallen since April, from plus-6 (39-33) to minus-5 (33-38), while McCormick’s approval rating has also fallen from plus-2 (28-26) to minus-10 (28-38).
Work efficiency
- Biden – 36% approve, 58% disapprove
- Shapiro – 59% approve, 27% disapprove
Biden’s approval ratings have continued to rise steadily in each survey, rising from 34% in December to 35% in April and 36% in September. Shapiro, the symbolic runner-up in the Democratic vice presidential race, has seen his approval rating fall from 64% to 59% over the past five months. 59% is still eight percent higher than in December.
General Congressional Ballot
When asked whether respondents would vote for a Democrat or Republican in their district, the poll revealed a 45-45 percent tie, with seven percent of respondents saying they were unsure.
The most essential thing
More than 1 in 3 respondents cited “economy/inflation” as the most essential issue in deciding their vote. “Abortion/reproductive rights” came in second (13%), while “immigration” was the only other issue (11%) to cross the 10 percent threshold.
Seventy percent of those surveyed said it was very or extremely essential for the United States to be actively involved in world affairs, while an additional 19% said it was somewhat essential.
Election Integrity
The survey asked respondents how confident they were that votes cast using the following methods would be accurately cast and counted in November.
- Paper ballot – 72% certain, 23% uncertain
- Electronic voting systems – 68% certain, 27% uncertain
- Postal voting – 54% certain, 43% uncertain
Nearly one-third of respondents said “voter fraud” posed the greatest threat to the security, certainty and accuracy of Pennsylvania’s elections, while nearly one-quarter said “making it harder for individuals to vote.” One in seven said foreign interference in the election, while another 13% said the utilize of mail-in voting.
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 450 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania from September 16 to 19, 2024. Respondents were surveyed in English on both landlines (111) and cell phones (339). Using a randomly selected sample of respondents, the survey has a margin of error of +/- 6% at the 95% confidence level.
