LANGHORNE— Speaking to a group of conservative campaigners supporting his candidacy, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick underscored how much is at stake in the election in one of Pennsylvania’s top Democratic counties.
“This is the most important election in the country, the most expensive, the most prestigious,” McCormick said at the Courtyard by Marriott in Bucks County. “You’re sitting at ground zero right now, and I can’t do this without you.”
Much of McCormick’s remarks were based on his campaign speeches aimed at unseating three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.). The group of campaigners he spoke with Tuesday morning work or volunteer with Americans for Prosperity (AFP) Action, a conservative group backed by Koch’s organization, and LIBRE Action, a sister organization that works to turn out Latino voters.
AFP Action endorses McCormick in 2023 before formally joining the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania. The group supported former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley for president before she withdrew from the race and continues to not endorse any candidate in the race for the White House.
Emily Greene, a senior adviser at AFP Action, said Tuesday that the organization has knocked on 600,000 doors so far and plans to reach 1 million undecided voters registered in Pennsylvania to support McCormick’s candidacy.
“They can’t silence us. They can’t throw us out like the mailman,” Greene said. “We’re out there as human beings, begging them that we can get this economy back on track if we elect Dave McCormick to the U.S. Senate.”
Speaking to reporters after her speech, Greene said AFP Action has 230 canvassers in all 67 counties but is primarily focused on three counties.
“We’re focused on Bucks, Montgomery and Allegheny counties,” Greene said in response to a question from the Capital-Star. “We know those three counties are going to determine the state election. Especially here, where we’re in Bucks County, all eyes are on that county.”
Of the three counties, Bucks County is expected to have the closest result in the 2024 election.
During Democrat John Fetterman 5-point Senate win in 2022 defeating Republican Mehmet Oz, he won Bucks County by 7 points, while winning the other two counties by double digits.
However, in 2018Casey defeated Republican U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta by 13 points, carrying Bucks County by 14 points, just one point shy of winning the statewide primary.
IN 2016The last time a Republican won a U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey defeated Democrat Katie McGinty by one point statewide. However, Toomey won Bucks County by 5 points, while Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by just under 1 point.
Bucks County is notorious for vote splitting, and AFP Action expects a significant portion of Pennsylvania voters to experience the same in the 2024 election.
“We’re predicting that between 5% and 13% of likely voters in Pennsylvania will split their vote,” Greene said. “So with a projected 7 million voters in the November election, that could be between 300,000 and 800,000 voters. So that will certainly decide the outcome of the election.”
When Trump Lost in Pennsylvania 2020 Biden won Bucks County by just 1 point, by 4 points.
McCormick said he is running a campaign that is “authentic” to him but acknowledged that his campaign and Trump’s are intertwined.
“I think President Trump will be a big help in getting out the votes for key Republicans, that’s part of the strategy to win,” McCormick told reporters. “I hope I can help him in the sense that I hope I can appeal to voters that will take a second look at him that might not have happened otherwise.”
“It’s going to be very, very close,” he added. “We’re certainly aligned. I’m running my campaign. I’m running a campaign that’s both authentic to me and that I think voters across our community will enjoy, but I have every hope that it succeeds and that I succeed.”
The latest polls appear to indicate that some Pennsylvania voters intend to split their mandate.
AND CBS News Poll released on Sunday showed Harris and Trump each have 50 percent support among likely voters in the Keystone State, while Casey led McCormick by 7 points.
Another group of voters that the organization says could impact the election outcome are Latino voters.
LIBRE Action advisor Jennie Dallas said that of Pennsylvania’s 1 million Latino residents, 600,000 are registered to vote. She told reporters that the area Latino voters are reaching out to is the Lehigh Valley, including Allentown, Hazleton, Scranton, the 222 corridor, Lancaster and Reading.
“We’re reaching out to major Latino population centers,” Dallas said.
According to 2020 exit polls69% of Latino voters in Pennsylvania voted for Biden, while 27% voted for Trump. Casey’s most successful re-election campaign in 2018won 65% of the Latino vote, while Barletta won 27%.
Despite these margins, polls from this series have shown that Republicans made some diminutive gains among Latino voters nationwide.
“The fact is that Latinos are inherently very conservative, like we love our families, we love God, we have values,” Dallas said in response to a question about the recent swing to the Republican Party. “And, well, I think all of those values are on the table now.”
This Casey The campaign also focused on Latino voters through various events across the commonwealth. Casey’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Both Greene and Dallas said the issue voters talk about most is inflation.
On Tuesday, Greene said AFP Action would be knocking on doors in Levittown and Bensalem, located in lower Bucks County.
Several national rating agencies such as Cook Political Reportrate the Senate race as “leaning Democratic,” between Casey and McCormick, while the presidential race is “uncertain.”
