Marist: Trump Has Slight Lead Over Biden in Pennsylvania; Casey leads McCormick in the Senate race

Ex-president Donald Trump has a narrow edge President Joe Biden in a recent Marist College Pennsylvania poll, although the difference remains within the margin of error.

Marist also surveyed 1,277 Keystone State registered voters about the U.S. Senate race and found that the Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey Jr. has a 6-point lead over the Republican challenger Dave McCormick. The poll was conducted June 3-6 and has a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

Trump still maintains a slim lead over Biden, 47-45%, and has led his opponent in the last eight polls conducted in the commonwealth. This comes with the caveat that any difference in the study is within the margin of statistical error.

These numbers include people who are undecided but are leaning towards a candidate. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. respondents at the level of 3%, while Cornel West AND Jill Stein everyone received 1% support. Among those who indicated that they “definitely” plan to vote in November, the competition has not changed much – Trump (48%) and Biden (46%) are separated by two percentage points.

“Once a Democratic stronghold, Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are up for grabs,” he says Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marystical Institute of Public Opinion. “Though Obama easily carried Pennsylvania in 2008 and 2012, Trump broke the blue wall in 2016 against Clinton before Biden ‘held the service’ for Democrats in 2020. Now there are no guarantees for either candidate.”


Biden continues to enjoy the support of Philadelphia and its counties. Three in four (75%) of those polled in Philadelphia favor Biden, compared with 18% for Trump, while the numbers are 50-43% for Biden in the suburbs. Trump leads in the Northeast (51-40%), the Midwest (56-32%), and the West (51-43%).

The demarcation line is college education, as Biden leads 58-36% among sheepskin wearers, while Trump is plus 16 among non-skin wearers (53-37%). Among white men, those without a college degree favor the 45th president (62-28%), while those with a college degree are divided, 47-47%. In turn, women with education constitute 65-30% for Biden, and those without education – 58-34% for Trump.

Approval of work

Biden’s approval rating among adults is 42 percent, rising to 44 percent among registered and likely voters. Nearly two in three Philadelphia respondents (68%) approve of his performance, compared to 46% in suburban Philadelphia.

Its lowest numbers are in central Pennsylvania (32%). More than half (53%) of college graduates and non-white respondents (55%) approve of his job, while only 1 in 4 white men without a college degree do the same. According to Marist polls from September 2022 and November 2022, the percentage remains stable at 42%.


Biden still ranks low (minus-13) when it comes to favorability, with 42% having a favorable impression of the president and 55% having an unfavorable view of him. The results are better among Philadelphians (69%), blacks (66%), and college graduates (54%). Biden has the lowest ratings among Central Pennsylvanians (30%), college graduates (35%), and people under 35 (36%).

Trump is also underwater at minus 10, with a 43-53% split. He has a nearly 50% approval rating among those outside the Philadelphia region and has good approval ratings among white evangelicals (71%) and college graduates (55%).

US Senate

Casey’s six-point lead over McCormick (52-46%) shrinks to four points among those who “definitely vote” in the election (51-47%). Like Biden, Casey has a significant lead in Philadelphia (83-16%) and its suburbs (56-42%). Like Trump, McCormick is ahead of Casey in the Northeast (50-44%) and the Midwest (58-41%), while the Western Commonwealth is split 49-49%.

The Democrat polls high among Black people (77-22%), people under 45 (56-41%), and women (56-41%). The strength of the Republican Party challenger is white men without a college degree (64-34%), white evangelical Christians (74-22%), and rural voters (62-35%).

Casey has a favorability rating of plus-15, with 46% viewing him favorably and 31% viewing him unfavorably. It is on the water in all regions of the Commonwealth, including +23 in Philadelphia. He is rated highest by black voters (65%), followed by representatives of the “Quiet/Greatest” generation (60%).

McCormick is viewed favorably by a third of respondents (33%), while 31% view him differently. Its strength lies in central counties (41%) and among white men without a college degree (50%).


Among respondents who “definitely will vote” in November, 78 percent said they already know who they will vote for and “nothing will change” their minds. An additional 17 percent responded that they knew who they were voting for but left the opportunity to change their mind.

Registered voters said preserving democracy (31%) was top of mind when thinking about the November vote, while 3 in 10 (30%) cited inflation. Immigration (17%) and abortion (10%) also reached double digits.

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