Vice President Kamala Harris’s potentially historic bid to become the first woman in the White House did little to attract more women to the Democratic Party in the first presidential election after the loss of federal abortion rights, with seemingly one exception: women over 65.
These women were motivated by the same issues that mattered to the entire electorate, such as the economy, threats to democracy, immigration and abortion, issues central to Harris’ failed presidential bid. But they were more likely to cite priorities such as caregiving, aging and maintaining the government’s retirement savings program as deciding factors, according to an AARP analysis of an AP VoteCast survey of 120,000 registered voters.
The specific priorities of women over 65 may explain why they voted for Harris at higher rates than men their age and leaned more toward Harris than younger women.
“Social Security… is not an issue that people ranked as first or second most crucial, but 70 percent of voters said Social Security was an extremely or very crucial issue in their vote, and the percentage was slightly higher among voters who voted Democrats, said Jeff Liszt, a partner at Impact Research, a Democratic research firm, during a post-election briefing hosted by AARP.
“And then voters 50+? Eighty percent of voters age 50+ said Social Security was extremely or very important to their vote,” he continued.
By gender, age and race, the electorate has largely moved away from Democrats this year, and that shift has usually, but not always, been favorable to Republican President-elect Donald Trump. This happened even as a record percentage of voters said abortion was their most crucial issue and majorities of the electorate across all demographic groups said they trusted Democrats to do a better job on it.
Trump gained support despite his role in strengthening the conservative majority on the Supreme Court, which overturned Roe v. Wade, dozens of sexual misconduct charges against him and his sexual abuse conviction last year. Compared to 2020, it received more support from women in all age groups, except women 65 and older, which changed in favor of Harris on several points: 54 percent of them supported Harris, while her support was from men in the same age group it was 44 percent. – according to CNN exit polls.
The biggest takeaway from this year is that the gender gap that many political pundits thought might be historic has not materialized, in part because the share of the female electorate that Harris won has fallen across all age groups except women. over 65 years of age.
Gender inequality existed in in every presidential election since 1980with more women supporting the Democratic candidate. This year it was smaller than in the two previous elections. Trump was involved in both cases – winning the first and losing the second – although each occurred before Roe was overturned and the former president was convicted of sexual abuse. He has also since been convicted of 34 crimes related to falsifying business records to conceal payments to an adult film star during his first campaign.
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The gender gap is usually considered to be the difference between the proportions of men and women who supported the winning candidate. In 2024, the gender gap was 10 points. In 2020, the gender gap was 12 points. In 2016, the gender gap was 11 points, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.
AND smaller percentage of women he overall supported Harris this year more than President Joe Biden did in 2020, with 53% of the vote for her; CNN’s analysis shows that 45 percent voted for Trump exit polls, e.g an imperfect science that nevertheless allows for a preliminary look at the electorate. Same exit polls from Elections 2020 indicated that 57 percent of women supported Biden and 42 percent supported Trump.
CNN exit polls showed Harris losing support in all other female age groups this year. The decline ranged from two points among women aged 30 to 44 to seven points among women aged 45 to 64.
However, women and men over the age of 65 voted roughly equally in favor of Harris compared to 2020 – and women in this age group were still more likely than men to support the Democratic candidate.
Liszt attended a briefing hosted by AARP along with Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward, a Republican research firm. Two interviewers analyzed this AP VoteCast data in 43 of the most competitive U.S. House districts, most of which were also in presidential battlegrounds. When gender was compared by age and race, a more complete picture began to emerge as to why women 65 and older in these key areas seemed to defy the ideological shifts seen in other demographic groups.
AARP’s analysis found that abortion and immigration were overall the top issues that determined candidate choices this year, with about one in four voters citing each as a deciding factor. The economy and jobs came second, although overall they became the top issues when inflation and social security were expanded into the broader category of “personal economic concerns.”
Voters aged 65 and older were also significantly more likely than voters in other age groups to say that “protecting democracy” was at least a “very important” issue to them. About 90 percent of women over 50 said it was very crucial to protect democracy, compared with 79 percent of men.
(*65*) women over 50 were less likely than men of the same age to cite “personal economic problems” as the most determining factor, more of them chose Social Security in particular. Women in this age group preferred the Democratic approach, with 59 percent of them saying Social Security was or was expected to be their “primary source” of household income. An AARP analysis found that fifty-one percent of men of the same age said the same.
The biggest gender gaps among voters over 50 were on abortion and immigration, with women prioritizing the former and men the latter, pollsters found.
Voters caring for an elderly, diseased or disabled person were more likely to vote for Harris, and more women than men over 65 said they were caregivers. Women over 50 were also 10 points more likely than men to say they trusted Democrats more than Republicans to “help seniors live independently.”
AARP’s takeaways are supported by interviews The 19th conducted with more than 65 women ahead of the November election.
Take Kathryn Engelhard, 69. She said following a Harris campaign event in mid-October in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, that her primary concern is protecting Social Security, followed by health care, particularly GOP policies on reproductive rights and abortion.
Sue Shomsky, a 70-year-old Michigan voter who endorsed Harris, said she was inspired to put up yard signs and knock on doors for the first time this year because of the January 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection. ., which she saw as a threat to democracy, as well as the Republican abortion policy, which she sees as a threat to her grandchildren.
“You know, after January 6, I said, ‘My God, we can’t let this man go back to the White House.’ I will do everything in my power to protect the rights of my daughter and granddaughters. Whatever it takes, I’m ready to do it,” Shomsky told The 19th in tardy October.
AARP’s analysis is based on the AP VoteCast survey of more than 120,000 registered voters in every state and is conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. These interviews, conducted in English and Spanish, took place in the last week before Election Day and reflect responses from registered voters who voted in person, early, absentee, by mail or chose not to vote. It is a more wide-ranging study than the exit polls analyzed by CNN, which were based on voluntary interviews with about 23,000 voters.
