Franklin-Marshall Poll: It’s a turnout race

The snapshot in time that is any survey has never been truer than with the latest edition Franklin & Marshall College Survey meaning the presidential and U.S. Senate races are so close together that the winner will be determined by turnout.

In a poll of 794 registered voters in Pennsylvania, the results showed a one-point difference between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump with the same separating margin Senator Bob Casey Jr. AND Dave McCormick.

In the presidential election, Trump has less than a percentage point lead over Harris among likely voters (49.6-49.3%) and is within the poll’s margin of error of +/-4.3%.

However, things are changing among registered voters who have another choice, and Harris has a four-point lead, 48-44%.

Basically, if registered voters get out the door and vote… that could make the difference. If they stay home and let potential voters have their say… that could tip the scales.

In other words… too close to call.

Berwood Yostdirector of the Franklin & Marshall poll, stated that “the difference in preferences among likely voters and registered voters is primarily due to the different partisanship, ideology and age profile of these voters – the current pool of registered voters is more Republican in terms of party identity, has fewer ideological moderates and has fewer voters under the age of 35.”

In a four-way race that covers Jill Stein AND Chase OliverHarris has a 49-45% lead, which is similar to the September F&M poll and one point higher than the August poll (46-43%)

The survey also asked whether voters were sure who they were voting for or whether they were still hesitant. Ninety-one percent of 752 respondents said they were sure, and nine percent of about 68 people said they were still deciding.

In the U.S. Senate race, Casey leads among likely voters (49-48%) and increases that lead to seven points among registered voters (49-42%).

McCormick is bringing Republicans home, however, as he has increased his approval rating from 75% to 86% since September

Yost also noted that splitting tickets was uncommon among respondents. Nearly half (49%) of registered voters are Harris-Casey voters and two in five (43%) are Trump-McCormick voters, both of which have seen an augment in the number of regular votes since September. There are a compact percentage of Trump-Casey (1%) and Trump-Other (1%) voters and virtually no Harris-McCormick or Harris-Other voters. Polarization is even stronger among likely voters: 49% of likely voters are currently Harris-Casey voters and 48% are Trump-McCormick voters.

Nearly all respondents indicated they would definitely vote (94%), and an additional four percent said they would probably vote. Two percent said it was a 50-50 proposition, and 1% said they didn’t think they would vote.

Three-quarters of respondents said they were very interested in the 2024 elections.

Nearly 3 in 5 Pennsylvanians (61%) are irritated by the Keystone State as THIS swing state, with 32 percent finding it quite or very invigorating. Fifty-five percent say it makes them feel much more responsible as voters, with an additional 20% feeling slightly more responsible.

President

The most essential thing when deciding which candidate to support

  • Economic policy – ​​18%
  • Honesty/honesty/good character – 14% (at most in the last 3 surveys)
  • Women’s Rights – 10% (at most in the last 3 surveys)

Which candidate is…

  • He understands the concerns of ordinary Americans best – Harris 49, Trump 41 (largest difference in 3 surveys)
  • Prepared to deal with the economy – Trump 48, Harris 42 (smallest difference in 3 surveys)
  • Closest to your views on values ​​- Harris 51, Trump 40
  • Serve as Commander in Chief – Trump 45, Harris 42 (smallest difference in 3 polls)
  • He has the character and common sense to be president – Harris 47, Trump 36

Favor

  • Joe Biden: minus-13 (43% – 56%)
  • Donald Trump: minus-12 (44% – 56%)
  • Kamala Harris: minus-1 (49% – 50%)
  • Bob Casey: plus-2 (42% – 40%)
  • Dave McCormick: minus-6 (38% – 44%)

Work efficiency

Josh Shapiro

  • Excellent – ​​26%
  • Good – 22% (48% total is the lowest result since February 2024)
  • Honest – 24%
  • Poor – 22% (highest total since the first question asked)

Joe Biden

  • Excellent – ​​15%
  • Good – 19%
  • Honest – 14%
  • Poor – 51% (11th test in a row at the level of 50% or more)

Pennsylvania

The direction of affairs in Pennsylvania

  • The right direction – 42% (+7% compared to the previous year)
  • Going down the wrong path – 48% (-7)

The most essential problem facing the country

  • Economy, finance – 30% (+12% compared to last year)
  • Government, politicians – 10%

How is your family doing financially?

  • Better – 17% (+6 compared to the previous year)
  • Worse – 43% (-7%; lowest percentage since August 2023)

How about next year?

  • Better – 25% (highest percentage since October 2020)
  • Worse – 13% (lowest percentage since October 2020)

Has fracking helped your community?

  • Not at all (28%), Very much (20%), A little (16%), A little (14%)

Has fracking harmed the environment in your community?

  • Not at all (40%), A little (18%), A little (14%), A lot (7%)

Has fracking in Pennsylvania helped the economy or harmed the environment?

  • More for the economy – 51%
  • More damage to the environment – ​​33%

The survey results presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 9–20, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Opinion Research Center at Franklin & Marshall College. The data in this release represents responses from 794 registered voters in Pennsylvania, including 351 Democrats, 326 Republicans and 118 Independents.

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