F&M Poll: Perry, Stelson in a statistical tie in PA-10

According to statistical data, the fight for the place in the 10th congressional district is even the latest survey by the Franklin & Marshall College Opinion Research Center.

F&M surveyed 397 registered voters living in the district covering Cumberland, Dauphin and York counties in south-central Pennsylvania.

Six-term Republican incumbent Rep. Scott Perry has a one percentage point advantage over the Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson45-44%, with 11% saying they are undecided.

However, the survey data was collected in the final days of the former president’s term Donald Trump A crime case in New York, the verdict of which was announced in recent days.

Before the verdict, Perry had a seven-point lead, 49-42%, but knowing about the jury’s decision, Stelson reversed those numbers and led 47-39%.

The leading category of responses from supporters of Stelson, a former WGAL-TV journalist, is that they vote against Perry (40%). On the other hand, supporters of the newly appointed member of the House Intelligence Committee have a positive opinion of him (27%) and agree with their personal views (25%).

Data shows Stelson’s supporters view her as more moderate, although there are concerns about her lack of experience. While Perry’s supporters cite his conservatism, support for the military and defense of the Constitution as reasons for supporting him, those who disagree cite his involvement in the January 6 insurrection and attempts to overturn the 2020 election as reasons for supporting his opponent. year.

Perry won re-election in 2022, defeating a Harrisburg city councilwoman Shamaine Daniels, 54-46%. The district has become more competitive since Perry’s beginnings as a result of redistricting.

More PA-10 numbers

Perry’s job acceptance rates are low considering his seniority, as just over one in three respondents believe he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as their representative. Not surprisingly, nearly 2 in 3 Republicans (68%) view him favorably, while Democrats (9%) and independents (17%) view his performance in a different delicate.

Ratings of the official’s personal favorability are approximately equal: 39% have a positive opinion and 41% have a negative opinion. Stelson’s overall rating is plus-10, with 33% rating her positively and 23% unfavorably. The challenge is that almost half (44%) say they don’t know enough about it to have an opinion.

The race failed to capture the attention of most voters, who are still learning about the backgrounds of both candidates. More than a quarter of respondents (26%) did not know that Perry voted against the certification of Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results or that he was involved in a plan to pressure the former vice president Mike Pence throw out electoral votes from states won by President Joe Biden (29%). Half of respondents did not know that Stelson, who lives in Lancaster County, did not live in the county.

Presidential race

New York’s verdict also played a role in the data in the race for the White House. Trump beat Biden in PA-10 in 2020 by about four points (51-47%) and has an overall six-point advantage (44-38%) in this poll. Before the verdict, respondents gave Trump a 47-36% advantage, and after the verdict was announced, both candidates had an advantage of as much as 40-40%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. he received 8% support before the verdict and 13% after it.

State direction

Respondents in Pennsylvania’s “Capitol District” had a similar number (47%) as respondents surveyed across the commonwealth in April (45%) saying they were “worse off” than a year ago.

A quarter (25%) expect to be in a “worse financial situation” next year as well. The cynical group says the country is “going on the wrong track (49%)”, while 2 in 5 (42%) say the country is “moving in the right direction”.

The survey results presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted between May 28 and June 2, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Opinion Research Center at Franklin & Marshall College. The data in this release represents responses from 397 Pennsylvania registered voters living in the 10th Congressional District, including 151 Democrats, 175 Republicans and 71 Independents. The sampling error in this study is +/- 6.1 percentage points when design weighting effects are taken into account.

Internal survey

Stelson’s campaign released an internal survey conducted by Normington Petts on Tuesday, which also showed the race was within the margin of error.

The poll gave Perry a three-point lead over Stelson, 51-48%, with a margin of error of +/-4.9%.

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