“In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what has been.”
This analysis comes from Amy Walterpublisher and editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, after the group released its latest Swing states poll on Wednesday.
The study shows that Vice President Kamala Harris continues to show momentum, with a five-point lead over the former president Donald Trump48-43% in a multi-candidate race in Pennsylvania.
In a hypothetical two-person contest, Harris has a 49-48% lead over Trump in the poll of 411 likely Keystone State voters.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In the multi-candidate survey, the figure was five percent, while 4% remained undecided.
“Given that the political parties are now equally engaged, we will spend the next 80 days fighting a battle of inches focused on (re)defining the image of the vice president and defining the issues around which the presidential election will be fought,” Walter said.
Harris leads among women in the five-way contest 52-38%, and has a significant lead among black voters 63-22%. She also has leads among younger and older voters, with leads of 10 and 18 percentage points, respectively, among voters ages 18-24 (48-38%) and 65 and older (56-38%).
Trump leads Latinos 51-42 percent and non-college educated voters 45-42 percent, and voters 30-44 percent (45-41 percent) ahead by four points.
Independents currently favor Harris (46-25%), while 15% support RFK Jr.
Trump’s Choice JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his vice presidential candidate doesn’t appear to have much, if any, influence in Pennsylvania. Virtually the same percentage of voters are more likely (26%) or less likely (27%) to vote for the former president if the Ohio senator joins the ticket.
The study was conducted before Minnesota’s decision was announced. Governor Tim Walz to the Democratic ticket. But some of the questions about who Harris should choose are illuminating.
Nearly half of respondents (48%) said that if they had to choose Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro that they would be more likely to vote for a Democrat in the presidential election. Walz was 14 percent more likely, and the same percentage said his election would make voters less likely.
Slight majorities (50%-48%) said they trusted Harris more than Trump when it came to handling the economy. Larger shares favored the vice president on abortion (56%-33%), protecting democracy (51%-43%), health care (53%-36%) and protecting Social Security and Medicare (53%-40%).
Trump scored higher on the border and immigration (52-40%), inflation (49-44%) and crime (47-45%).
The Cook Political Report also found that respondents were evenly split on four separate statements about Harris:
- “too liberal to effectively govern the entire country” (50-50%)
- “too inexperienced to govern the country effectively” (50-50%)
- “too frivolous to effectively govern the country” (50–50%)
- “will never be taken seriously as a leader” (50-50%)
Most respondents preferred the following statements about Trump:
- “criminal convictions make him unfit to govern the country effectively” (54-46%)
- “too unstable and uncontrolled to govern the country effectively” (58–42%)
- “too old to run the country effectively” (53–47%)
More than a third of respondents (36%) said they believed “Republican rhetoric and extremism” were more to blame for the recent rise in political violence in the United States than “Democratic rhetoric and extremism” (24%).
Fifty-five percent agreed with the statement that “Kamala Harris is not responsible for Joe Biden’s age or his decision to run for president again,” while 45% agreed with the statement that “Kamala Harris deceived voters by covering up Biden’s deteriorating mental health.”
On the issue of abortion, 65% said it should be legal in all (26%) or most (39%) cases, while 35% said it should be illegal in most (28%) or all (7%) cases.
Working with Cook Political Report and GS Strategy Group, BSG conducted the surveys in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin among likely 2024 voters from July 26 to August 2, 2024. The surveys were conducted in English using SMS-to-Web and online panel methodology.
A total of 2,867 likely voters in 7 states completed the survey, for a margin of sampling error of ±1.83 at the 95% confidence level. The full data set included:
435 Arizona Likely Voters in 2024 (±4.7)
405 likely voters in Georgia in 2024 (±4.9)
406 Likely Michigan Voters in 2024 (±4.9)
403 Likely Nevada Voters in 2024 (±4.9)
403 Likely 2024 Voters in North Carolina (±4.9)
411 Likely Pennsylvania Voters in 2024 (±4.8)
