Cook Political Report: Trump Holds Slim Lead Over Biden; Casey leads McCormick, 49-41

One sec President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania still has less than impressive poll numbers, Senator Bob Casey does not suffer the same fate, according to “Swing state design“, a collaboration between The Cook Political Report and two pollsters, Benenson Strategic Group (BSG) i GS Strategic Group.

The former president polled 730 likely voters in the Commonwealth Donald Trump he had a 41-37% advantage over Biden, however Robert F. Kennedy Jr. he finished third in the polls with seven percent. When asked who they would choose if they had to choose from five candidates, Trump increased his lead by an additional percentage point. This difference decreases to three points and is within +/-3.6% error when respondents have only two choices.

Casey has a double-digit lead over the Republican Dave McCormick, 46–36%, with 10% undecided. This margin shrinks to eight points (49-41%) when the numbers include slim people.

The race in Pennsylvania is not far from the norm, as other Democratic Senate candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin are not only outperforming Biden, but also leading their GOP opponents by 2-12 points.

Digging deeper into the numbers, Democratic incumbents in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the furthest ahead of the President, while Democrats running for open seats in Arizona and Michigan are performing slightly better than Biden.

For those polled who believe the US economy is getting worse, Biden is losing significantly (-44), but Casey is not painted with the same brushes, losing -30 points. The three-term senator from Scranton trails his opponent by 42 points among those who disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, while the president’s score is -59.

Among those who believe Trump will try to ban abortion, Casey is ahead of Biden, +45 to +34, while those who believe Trump will try to become a dictator give Biden a spectacular +78 to plus -72 for Casey. Democrats have repeatedly attacked McCormick for his comments during the first Senate debate in 2022 in which he claimed he only supported maternal life exceptions, not rape or incest.

“At this point, the presidential race is a referendum on the economy and Biden’s handling of it, not on Donald Trump’s many commitments,” said Amy Walter, CPR’s editor-in-chief. – However, with competitions at the Senate level it is the opposite. “Democratic Senate candidates are not paying as much of a price for voters’ economic frustrations, while Republicans have not created a divide between themselves and Trump’s most problematic positions.”

And at a time when Split-ticket voting is becoming increasingly infrequent in national contests, this could bode well for Democrats. In 2016, every Senate race was the same as the presidential election results, if only Rep. Susan Collins among Republicans, he was able to win reelection when Biden carried Maine.

In partnership with Cook Political Report and GS Strategy Group, BSG conducted polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin among likely 2024 voters from May 6-13, 2024. Polls were conducted in English via SMS messages – to-Web methodologies and online panels.

A total of 3,969 likely voters in 7 states completed the survey, with a margin of sampling error of ±1.6 at a 95% confidence level. The full data set included:

527 likely 2024 voters in Arizona (±4.3)
600 likely voters in 2024 in Georgia (±4.0)
606 likely 2024 voters in Michigan (±4.0)
402 likely 2024 voters in Nevada (±4.9)
601 likely 2024 voters in North Carolina (±4.0)
730 likely 2024 voters in Pennsylvania (±3.6)
503 likely 2024 voters in Wisconsin (±4.4)

For the purposes of this study, likely voters are defined as any person who is currently registered to vote and has voted in at least 1 of the last 4 presidential or midterm elections, or registered to vote after the 2020 general presidential election.

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