It’s been a long, tardy march, but at least for one organization, the Republican Party Dave McCormick he even pulled out with a Democrat Bob Casey Jr. in the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania.
Cook Political Report the report released today moved the race from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up.
While public polls in the Keystone State continue to show Casey ahead by 3-5 points, Cook writes that private, internal polls paint a very different picture, pointing out that the race is a contest with a “margin of error.”
Casey held the lead for most of the election cycle, gaining a double-digit lead thanks to pollsters like New York Times/Siena, Franklin and Marshall CollegeAND Fox News back in summer.
However, McCormick consistently gained popularity. In 19 polls conducted in the race since Labor Day, Casey has an average lead of 5.3 percentage points. However, the average of the last five polls shows the deficit has shrunk to 3.7 points.
According to Cook, “private polling from both parties shows McCormick strengthening the GOP base and making gains in the western part of the state, particularly in and around Allegheny County in Pittsburgh, where he currently lives. Republicans argue that undecided Senate voters tend to vote absentee and are more susceptible to inflation, although they are less prone to vote.
“McCormick’s biggest weakness remains abortion, which Casey — previously the last pro-life Democrat in the Senate — urged him to do during the last two debates. This is where Democrats believe Casey will have an advantage in Philadelphia’s most important suburbs where women vote.”
McCormick’s Super PAC – Key renewal – sharply criticizes Casey as a career politician who is part of the problem in Washington, pointing to record grocery prices in Philadelphia and his votes to support Wall Street. From July 1 to September 30, the PAC spent $30.7 million, mostly over the air.
Democrats continually portrayed McCormick as a “carpet stripper,” pointing to his Connecticut residence and the fact that he was not “from Pennsylvania.” They also highlighted the fact that McCormick is a former hedge fund executive.
According to AdImpact, as of the final days of the race, Republicans had budgeted $30.7 million for advertising time, and at the time of publication, just $19.8 million for Democrats.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter provides independent, unbiased analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors and president, as well as American political trends.
