by Louis Jacobson
PoliticsPA contributing writer
As Election Day 2024 approaches, it’s time to compile our final PoliticsPA Congressional Vulnerability Rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House of Representatives.
For the eighth time since 2010, PoliticsPA has published Congressional Vulnerability Rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation. This is ours fourth handicap 2024 election cycle
Because ours last analysis in Septemberwe saw enough movement to make one change – regarding the race between the Republican incumbent Rep. Scott Perry and democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.
The Perry-Stelson contest, a district covering parts of Harrisburg and York regions, has steadily climbed our vulnerability rankings over the past year and a half. It started with the fifth most vulnerable socket in the game July 2023 issue from our list. Now we’re tied for second place, joining the spot held by Democrats Rep. Susan Wild.
As was the case in September, Democrats are in the weakest position in our analysis Rep. Matt Cartwright.
The fourth race in our “Vulnerable” category, behind Perry and Wild, is the one in which the Democratic Party is seeking re-election Rep. Chris Deluzio.
The only other spot on our list remains in the “Potentially Vulnerable” category, that is, occupied by Representative Brian Fitzpatrick (R).
Here’s our full breakdown. Statistics come from American Politics Almanac 2024.
Highly sensitive
No racing
Sensitive
No. 1: 8th Congressional District
Job holder: Matt Cartwright (D)
Term: 6th term
Geography: Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe Counties
2022 House Result: Cartwright, 51%-49%
2020 presidential election result: Trump, 51-48%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
White: 75%
Black: 6%
Latinos: 13%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 26%
Poverty rate: 13%
Once again, Cartwright tops our vulnerability list.
The Scranton-based district went all out Donald Trump in 2020 by three points and although Cartwright has won challenging races before, he has to challenge himself construction director Rob Bresnahan this year, who is considered a robust GOP recruit.
Cartwright’s biggest advantage is money. By mid-October, Cartwright had more than doubled Bresnahan’s spending amount and entered the final phase with a 4-to-1 cash advantage. Outside groups opposing each candidate spent roughly the equivalent.
The Scranton area is a key area in the presidential race because it is historically Democratic but has been shifting toward the GOP in recent elections. The local development of the presidential race will likely have a major impact on the House race.
No. 2 (tie): 7th Congressional District
Position holder: Susan Wild (D)
Term: 3rd term
Geography: Lehigh Valley: Mainly Lehigh and Northampton Counties
2022 House Score: Wild, 51%-49%
2020 presidential election result: Biden, 49.7-49.1%
Partisan Voting Rate (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+2
White: 69%
Black: 5%
Latinos: 19%
College degree or higher: 30%
Poverty rate: 11%
Wild won this swing district in three elections in a row, but by reducing his vote share – 54%, 52% and most recently 51%. This time face to face six-term state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
As with Cartwright, his current position has provided a major fundraising advantage: WIld outraised Mackenzie by mid-October by a 6-to-1 margin, and has had more than twice as much money in the bank throughout that time. Given Pennsylvania’s crowded airwaves with competitive presidential and Senate contests, it remains to be seen whether Mackenzie will be able to sufficiently define himself against the incumbent president.
No. 2 (tied): 10th Congressional District (shifted from No. 3)
Incumbent: Scott Perry (right)
Term: 6th term
Geography: Harrisburg and surrounding areas: Dauphin, Cumberland and York counties
2022 House Result: Perry, 54%-46%
2020 presidential election result: Trump, 51-47%
Partisan Voting Rate (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5
White: 71%
Black: 10%
Latinos: 9%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32%
Poverty rate: 10%
Perry has moved up on our list for the third year in a row.
Although Perry resides in a Republican district, the region is turning purple and his far-right politics have left him vulnerable. He chaired the hard-line House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for his involvement in then-President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
She will face Janelle Stelson, her ex Republican who won the six-person primary thanks in part to her connections as a longtime news anchor for WGAL-TV.
The only poll in the race since July showed Stelson leading by nine points and just two points tiny of 50%. A poll published in mid-October by Susquehanna Polling and Research probably overstates her advantage, but indicates a real chance of changing the Democratic mandate.
Perry hopes Trump has a solid victory in the district; Trump won it by 4 points in 2020. Perry won in 2022, even though Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro won the district by double digits. However, Stelson is widely considered the stronger and better-financed candidate.
Unusually for a challenger, Stelson has spent more money than the incumbent through mid-October and has more cash in the bank as Election Day approaches. But outside groups, including the GOP Congressional Leadership Fund, have recently begun attacking Steelson.
No. 4: 17th Congressional District
Job holder: Chris Deluzio (no)
Term: 1st term
Geography: Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs: Allegheny and Beaver counties
2022 House Result: Deluzio, 53%-47%
2020 presidential election result: Biden, 52-46%
Partisan Voting Rate (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 82%
Black: 8%
Latinos: 2%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 8%
Deluzio won this animated district by a six-point margin in 2022, keeping it for Democrats after Conor Lamb’s failed bid for Senate. He comes face to face with another veteran and the state Libertine. Rob Mercury.
This race was quieter than the top three contests, but like the others, it may have been shaped by the highest-vote races.
Deluzio has tripled Mercuri’s spending by mid-October and has slightly more money at its disposal than Mercuri has had in recent weeks. The largest discrepancies occurred for negative advertising from outside groups; the money spent by outside groups attacking Mercuri was seven times greater than the amount spent on outside attacks on Deluzio.
Potentially vulnerable
No. 5: 1st Congressional District
Job holder: Brian Fitzpatrick (right)
Term: 4th term
Geography: Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks County
2022 House result: Fitzpatrick, 55%-45%
2020 presidential election result: Biden, 52-47%
Partisan Voting Rate (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 80%
Black: 4%
Latinos: 6%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 5%
The district supported Biden by 5 points in 2020 and is a key battleground in the 2024 presidential race. But Fitzpatrick’s moderate voting record and his family history (his tardy brother finished ahead of him) made it challenging for Democrats to unseat him.
Democratic candidate Ashley Ehaszthe former Army Apache helicopter pilot, who lost to Fitzpatrick by 10 points in 2022, is nominated again.
Fitzpatrick he rejected the chance debate Ehasz, but polls show he can afford it. Both campaigns released polls in September that showed Fitzpatrick ahead. Ehasz lost to her by 5 points; Fitzpatrick showed him a 14-point lead.
Although Ehasz’s fundraising was better than in 2022, Fitzpatrick benefited from his tenure. It doubled its fundraising during the current election cycle and additionally benefited from positive outdoor advertising spending. In the last days of the campaign, he has 10 times more cash at his disposal than Ehasz.
Minimally susceptible
No racing