by Louis Jacobson
PolitykaPA co-author
In recent months, Pennsylvania has only solidified its position as a must-win state in the 2024 election. With 19 electoral votes at stake—the most of any battleground state—Pennsylvania is widely expected to decide whether Kamala Harris Or Donald Trump wins the presidential race. In addition, a competitive Senate contest between Democratic incumbents Bob Casey and the Republican candidate Dave McCormick is a key element of the Senate majority.
Finally, with control of the U.S. House of Representatives also within reach, Pennsylvania remains a key state for the House prospects. Democrats currently hold a 9-8 advantage in the congressional delegation.
For the eighth election cycle dating back to 2010, PoliticsPA is publishing vulnerability rankings for Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation. This is our third assessment of Pennsylvania’s 2024 congressional elections, and depending on how much the election changes in the next two months, we could run another one before Election Day.
Because we last place in the ranking of the most vulnerable seats in Congress We saw enough change in Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation in May to slightly modify our list, although the general outline of the map remained largely the same.
As in our last assessment, our highest category, “Highly Vulnerable,” remains empty. But the second highest category, “Vulnerable,” still includes four races — in descending order, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), Representative Susan Wild (D), Rep. Scott Perry (R) and Representative Chris Deluzio (D).
That means a move up for Perry: For the second year in a row, we’re moving Perry up our vulnerable list. He’s running against Janelle Stelsona former news anchor who is well-known locally and who — in a scarce feat for a challenger — had more money in the bank by the end of June than the incumbent. This race moves from the 4th most vulnerable on our list to 3rd, remaining in our “vulnerable” category.
Our third highest category, “Potentially Vulnerable,” includes one more spot, occupied by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R).
Another change in this updated analysis is the removal of our lowest-rated category: “Minimally Vulnerable.”
In our last issue, the two Democratic Party incumbents received the following ratings: Chrissy Houlahanwho represents Chester and Berks counties, and Summer Leewho represents Pittsburgh. But Houlahan faces Neil Young, a social studies teacher and wrestling coach who has almost no money in the bank, and Lee, a staunch progressive, has seen no well-organized or well-funded Republican opposition after her primary victory over Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patelwho started as a more moderate alternative.
The districts represented by Houlahan and Lee join 10 other Pennsylvania House of Representatives districts that we currently do not consider at all at risk.
Here’s our full breakdown. Statistics come from American Politics Almanac 2024.
Very vulnerable to attacks
No races
Sensitive
No. 1: 8th Congressional District
Beneficiary:Matt Cartwright (defender)
Tenure:6 semester
Geography:Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe Counties
2022 House of Representatives Election Results:Cartwright, 51%-49%
2020 presidential election results:Trump, 51%-48%
Party Voting Index (The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
White: 75%
Black: 6%
Latino: 13%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 26%
Poverty rate: 13%
Cartwright maintains his position at the top of our vulnerability list. His No. 1 position is partly because the Scranton district is slightly less Democratic than the Democrat Wild is at risk; Trump won the 8th District by three points in 2020.
The second reason for his continued leadership position is the strength of his rival Cartwright, general director of construction Rob BresnahanBresnahan said he had more than $1.2 million in his bank account by the end of June, and received an additional $240,000 in support from outside groups during the same period.
That’s an impressive haul, though still a fraction of the $4.5 million Cartwright has in the bank. (Incumbents in both parties typically raise more money than their rivals.)
Scranton Times-Tribune reported that Bresnahan donated $2,000 to Cartwright’s October 2022 campaign, although it added that he also gave $1,000 to Cartwright’s Republican rival in the 2022 election, Jim Bognett. Bresnahan told the newspaper that after making the donation, he became “disappointed” in Cartwright’s support for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ agenda, which is why he decided to run against them.
Cartwright and Bresnahan are planned to meet for a debate at the end of October.
No. 2: 7th Congressional District
Beneficiary:Susan Wild (D)
Tenure:3 semester
Geography:Lehigh Valley: Primarily Lehigh and Northampton counties
2022 House of Representatives Election Results: Wild, 51%-49%
2020 presidential election results:Biden, 49.7%-49.1%
Party Voting Index (The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter):R+2
White: 69%
Black: 5%
Latino: 19%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 30%
Poverty rate: 11%
Wild has won the close district in three consecutive elections, but has received fewer votes – 54%, 52% and, most recently, 51%. This time, she will face six-term state representative Ryan Mackenziewho previously worked on the then-President’s 2004 re-election campaignSenator Pat ToomeyHe also worked as a civil servant for the U.S. and Pennsylvania Departments of Labor.
Mackenzie has improved his fundraising stance since we last looked at the race. Since winning the three-candidate primary, Mackenzie’s cash on hand has risen to $373,000, boosted by $623,000 in outside spending. But that’s still well below the nearly $3.9 million Wild reported having on hand through the end of June.
Wild and Mackenzie took part in a debate in early September about press coverage Described as “petually irritated.” Mackenzie slammed Wild for her 100% support for Biden’s agenda, including his foreign policy and economic accomplishments. Wild responded by emphasizing her efforts at bipartisanship.
No. 3: 10th Congressional District (moved from No. 4)
Beneficiary:Scott Perry (right)
Tenure:6 semester
Geography:Harrisburg and surrounding areas: Dauphin, Cumberland and York counties
2022 House of Representatives Election Results:Perry, 54%-46%
2020 presidential election results:Trump, 51%-47%
Party Voting Index (The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter):R+5
White: 71%
Black: 10%
Latino: 9%
Higher education Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32%
Poverty rate: 10%
For the second year in a row in our analysis, Perry moved up one spot on the list – from No. 4 to No. 3 – while remaining in the at-risk category.
While Perry holds a Republican district, the region is trending purple, and his far-right politics have made him vulnerable to attacks. He chaired the radical House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for involvement in then-President Donald Trump invalidation of the 2020 presidential elections
Democrats are hopeful about their rival, Janelle Stelson, a former Republican who won the six-candidate primary, in part because she was a long-time news anchor at WGAL-TV.
Stelson had an impressive $1.1 million in the bank as of June 30, up from the $788,000 Perry reported. (Including outside spending narrows the gap.) A Franklin & Marshall College poll in June found Perry leads Stelson within the margin of error, 45%-44%, with 11% undecided.
Stelson goes on the offensive on the airrunning an advertising campaign worth almost $300,000 Criticize Co-sponsored by Perry Life from Conception ActIn a sign of the interest the race is generating among national Democrats, Stelson is also receiving televised support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC.
No. 4: 17th Congressional District (moved from No. 3)
Beneficiary:Chris Deluzio (O)
Tenure:1 semester
Geography:Pittsburgh North Suburbs: Allegheny and Beaver Counties
2022 House of Representatives Election Results: Deluzio, 53% -47%
2020 presidential election results:Biden, 52%-46%
Party Voting Index (The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 82%
Black: 8%
Latino: 2%
Higher education Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 8%
Deluzio won the volatile district by six points in 2022, holding it for Democrats after Conor Lamb unsuccessfully ran for Senate. He faces a fellow veteran and state The Lecherous. Rob Mercury.
Both candidates have increased their fundraising: Deluzio said he had nearly $1.9 million in the bank by the end of June, ahead of Mercuri with $801,000. Deluzio has used a six-figure sum to air an ad focusing on his actions following the February 2023 derailment of a Norfolk Southern train in neighboring Ohio.
Potentially susceptible
No. 5: 1st Congressional District
Beneficiary: Brian Fitzpatrick (right)
Tenure:4 semester
Geography:Philadelphia Suburbs: Bucks County
2022 House of Representatives Election Results:Fitzpatrick, 55%-45%
2020 presidential election results:Biden, 52%-47%
Party Voting Index (The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 80%
Black: 4%
Latino: 6%
Higher education Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 5%
As a Republican, Fitzpatrick is a perennial target in a district that went for Biden by 5 points. But Fitzpatrick’s moderate voting record and family history (his deceased brother held the seat before him) have strengthened his position. He easily defeated Mark Houckhis opponent from the right earlier this year.
Democratic candidate Ashley EhaszThe former U.S. Army Apache helicopter pilot who lost to Fitzpatrick by 10 points in 2022 is running again and has improved her fundraising performance. By the end of June, Ehasz had already raised more than twice what she raised in the entire 2022 cycle, which helped her fund six-figure advertising purchase who attacks Fitzpatrick over abortion.
Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick has already raised as much as he did in the entire 2022 cycle, and leads Ehasz in cash, $3.9 million to $1.3 million. That’s a hefty margin in Philadelphia’s pricey media market, especially in an election year when presidential, Senate and other campaigns will be competing for ad space.
Internal Democrat Poll for June found Fitzpatrick 47%, Ehasz 45%, 8% undecided. But observers see Fitzpatrick as less vulnerable than any of the other four incumbents on our list.
