Census data sparks partisan fights in statehouses over seats in the U.S. House of Representatives

The results of the current state-level fights will shape not only the partisan makeup of each congressional delegation, but also lend a hand determine whether Democrats will be able to maintain their narrow grip of control of the House of Representatives.

That, in turn, affects policy moves from gun control to immigration to voting rights — including the speed with which Democrats move this year in trying to pass their priorities.

Redistricting will also have an impact on Electoral College votes at stake in 2024, as each state’s electoral votes for president depend on the number of lawmakers in Congress.

Preliminary analysis Monday’s Census data suggests a boost, albeit a petite one, for Republicans. According to David Wasserman, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, if the 2020 presidential election were held with a novel division of congressional seats, President Joe Biden would win the White House with 303, not 306, electoral votes.

States key to Biden’s victory, such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, will lose congressional districts, and Colorado, which also supported Biden, will gain another seat.

Texas, Florida and North Carolina, which voted for former President Donald Trump, will gain a total of four seats. Ohio, which also favored Trump, will lose its seat.

‘Justice means a lot to me’: Pa. residents. they are trying to chair the legislative committee on redistricting

In terms of congressional math, early settlement is also better for the GOP, although there is a high degree of uncertainty about the magnitude of that impact. Wasserman’s analysis suggests that Republicans could gain three to four seats solely due to the positive effects of the reapportionment process.

It’s not much, but Democrats currently have just two votes more than the 216 needed to pass bills in this chamber. Another Democrat, Troy Carter, won the special election in Louisiana on Saturday, and when he takes the oath, the party will be split 219-212, with four vacant seats.

Kyle Kondik, elections analyst at the University of Virginia Policy Center, he also predicted that Republicans would see most of the gains under the novel lines.

GOP officials will control the map-drawing process in Texas, Florida and North Carolina, and benefits will also accrue in Montana and Oregon, providing an advantage in six of the seven novel seats drawn, he said.

“On balance, Republicans should benefit from these changes — not necessarily through better performance in states losing seats, but rather by potentially winning the lion’s share of new seats in states gaining districts,” Kondik wrote.

Who controls the maps?

A critical factor is which party will draw the boundaries in each state. According to Wasserman, Democrats have the final power and can draw more districts than in 2011 – 75 districts in the current process compared to 44 in 2011.

But Republicans will hold the pen in drawing many more districts – 187 districts, up from 219 in 2011, he added. The remainder will be drawn either by bipartisan commissions, as is the case in Colorado and Michigan, or in states where control is split between the parties.

That’s the case in Pennsylvania, where Republicans control the Legislature but a Democratic governor can (and likely will) veto GOP-drawn congressional maps, sending the process to court.

A national Democratic redistricting group with ties to former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder has already filed a lawsuit in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Louisiana, asking state courts to prepare now to step in and ensure the timely development of the map after what the group says will be a partisan gridlock.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court reworked the state’s congressional map in 2018, ruling one drawn in 2011 unconstitutional. That moved the state’s delegation from 13 Republicans and five Democrats to an even nine-to-nine split.

The lawsuits were the first to be filed through the usual judicial process, and Marc Elias, a lawyer representing the National Redistributive Action Fund, wrote on Twitter: “They won’t be the last.”

A spokesman for the National Republican Redistriting Trust sought to downplay the lawsuits, calling them “expensive press releases.”

The number of districts in a state and the political affiliations of the believers drawing the boundaries are just two of many factors that come into play.

Another critical factor will be detailed data on where the population has moved, which won’t be available from the Census Bureau until at least August.

This data will clarify which areas are growing and can be the basis for adding a district. The North Carolina state senator wagered on that prospect by filing campaign paperwork months before securing the state’s 14th congressional district. as reported by North Carolina Policy Watch.

It will also show which districts need to recruit the most people to create districts of roughly equal size. In the novel congressional districts, each House member will represent an average of 761,000 people. inhabitants.

These changes will impact every map, creating uncertainty as challengers wait for their home to go to the district of an incumbent member of the same party or to a much more competitive seat than expected.

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