Analysis indicates that the closely watched Pa. governor’s race. to “Leans Dem” | Friday morning coffee

Good morning Friday, dear seekers.

In the face of abortion access and voting rights, Pennsylvania Democrats are pinning all their hopes on the state’s attorney general Josh Shapiro in a gubernatorial contest that is becoming more and more significant by the day.

Shapiro is facing a Republican Senator Doug Mastrianofrom Franklin County, who won last month’s Republican primary with just 44 percent of the vote. according to the Department of State.

Mastrianothe culture warrior and election denier who was at the US Capitol on January 6 defeated his closest competition, his former Republic of the USA by Lou Bartlettwho won 20 percent of the vote, according to unofficial results. Shapiromeanwhile, he ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

So for Pennsylvania Democrats, there may be little consolation, perhaps sweating Mastriano above-average performance, according to a recent analysis that moved the race from a “flip” to a “Democrat tilt.”

The ruling came from a team of political forecasters at ul Crystal Ballanalytical workshop conducted by University of Virginia political sage Larry J. Saturday, it was published the day after primary school on May 17.

Establishment Republicans who worried about this MastrianoWho gained support from ex President Donald Trumpwas too extreme to win statewide, they lined up anyway behind an instigator in central Pennsylvania.

“Given Mastriano obligations i Shapiro our strengths, we believe that the transition from the Toss-up approach to the Democratic Leans model is justified. While it is scarce for us to shift such a key race to the Democrats in these types of circumstances, we believe it is prudent to do so in this case.” Coleman he wrote.

“According to our sources, approx Shapiro campaign takes nothing for granted, nor should it.” Coleman he wrote.

But as Coleman notes, and I emphasize, “a leaning Democrat does not mean a protected Democrat because the environment can be so good for Republicans that even an extreme candidate like Mastriano could have won.”

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mehmet Oz (LevittownNow.com photo)

Meanwhile…

Republican primaries in the nationally watched U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania is already a done deal. AND Mehmet Oz, Trumpa celebrity-endorsed doctor whose seniority is still up for debate is the GOP standard-bearer in the fall campaign.

Oz faces Lt. Governor John Fetterman Who They turned out to be slightly worse for wear from the Democratic primary. And when it comes to upper chamber control, the race remains as competitive as ever.

And this is a reality reinforced by recent events Crystal Ball analysis that keeps the contest in the toss-up column.

“Pennsylvania is the only race we have placed in this category that does not have a Democratic first-term candidate.” Coleman – he wrote in his package, which had been folded again earlier Oz officially blocked the nomination, defeating the former hedge fund CEO David McCormick.

“With both Oz Or McCormick as the candidate of the Republican Party, we are willing to maintain our recommendation at the current level,” Coleman he wrote.

Get some popcorn. Or maybe a little Dramamine. It’s going to be a wild summer.

A mob of Trump supporters breaks through police barriers at the U.S. Capitol, January 6, 2021. (Screenshot from video posted by ProPublica)

Our stuff.
A widely anticipated Thursday hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives committee investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol found that two groups supported then:President Donald Trump planned the riot to stop the transfer of presidential power – one sec Trump tacitly supported the uprising and was indifferent to calls for hanging then-Vice President Mike Pence. Story by us Washington reporter Jacob Fischler.

Members United States House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture are wondering how to lend a hand farmers struggling with rising costs in the case of fertilizers, fuels, seeds and chemicals – the unfortunate harvest of the war in Ukraine, tensions in the global supply system, inflation and complex weather conditions, Capital-Star Washington correspondent, Allison Winter I’m writing.

US Senate is expected to approve the sweeping bill in the coming days led by the bipartisan duo Montana’s Jon Tester and Kansas Jerry Moran it would expand health care and benefits for veterans exposed to burns abroad – although a few final details remain, Capital Star Washington reporter Jennifer Shutt reports.

The Commonwealth Court could temporarily stop Pennsylvania Department of Transportation they plan to take down nine bridges across the state, but it’s a collection of lawmakers, activists and local government officials gathered at the state Capitol on Wednesday call the Democrats Governor Tom Wolf administration to withdraw the initiative once and for all. Justin Sweitzerour partners in City and State of Pa.contains details.

In the Capital Star: Dad will start quoting unlicensed assisted living facilities this week. And defenders and families collection for social care workers.

On our comments page this morning: Regular opinion Fletcher McClellan explains why the commission’s public hearings were held on January 6 will not repeat Watergate. And why Republicans elected officials basically not concerned about gun violence? Laura K. Chapinwriting for our sibling site, Colorado Newshe thinks it’s a crazy question.

U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, R-10th District, speaks at a news conference at the Capitol on Thursday, July 29, 21 (C-Span screenshot)

Elsewhere.
U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, R-10th District He asked for a pardon after the January 6 attack, U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo.– he said during Thursday’s hearing. Questioning has a history.

Country Sense. ScottMartin AND Ryan Aumentboth Republicans from Lancaster County, will introduce legislation soon as does Florida’s “Don’t Say You’re Gay” law., Mail Newspaper reports.

USA Today Network explains why former Veep Mike Pence is a central figure in the January 6 investigation.

Former Lancaster County attorney who threatened to kill U.S. Democratic Party senators will be sentenced on Friday, Lancaster on the Internet reports.

The United States Supreme Court will enable counties to count absentee ballots that were submitted on time, but no handwritten date, Related press reports (via PennLive).

The Morning call takes readers during a tour of the revitalized Allentown waterfront.

Chief of the Wilkes-Barre Fire Department – says the draft law on fireworks, which is currently being considered by the General Assembly doesn’t go far enough Voice of Citizens reports.

Philadelphia published the results of an independent report regarding the city’s misconduct MOVE remains of bombing victims, WHY-FM reports.

Abortion bans can create uncertainty among people willing to donate their embryos, Stateline.org reports.

Here’s your #Pennsylvania Instagram of the Day:

(Photo via @keith_zpix/instagram.com)

What’s going on
The desk is immaculate. Enjoy the silence.

What’s Going On (Naked Political Edition)
16:30: Party for Libertine. Mike Schlossberg, D-Lehigh. Admission costs between $100 and $1,000.

Wolf watch
At the time of writing Governor Tom Wolf there is no public schedule today.

Heavy rotation
This week we’re going with a singer/songwriter track Pete Yorn. Here’s ‘Strange condition.’

Friday’s free hockey link
The Lightning in Tampa Bay won the fifth match Eastern Conference play-off final, They defeated the New York Rangers 3-1 on Thursday nightand pushing New York on the brink of elimination.

And now you’re up to date.

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