Analysis: After a week, control of the US Senate is still up in the air | Tuesday morning coffee

About this time a week ago, political analysts and observers were asking themselves: Will voters punish or reward Pennsylvania’s Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate? John Fetterman after an oft-interrupted debate against Republicans Mehmet Oz?

Fettermanwho is recovering from a stroke and needs closed captioning to compensate for auditory processing difficulties he warned at the beginning last Tuesday’s debate that he may mix up words or twist words.

And now there is an answer: up-to-date New York Times/Siena College Poll from Monday’s programs Fetterman with a 5-point lead, 49-44 percent, over Oz as the race enters its final week.

The polls, which also show slight Democratic leads in the key states of Georgia and Nevada, come at a good time for Democrats, who see a 50-50 upper house as their best chance to maintain their majority on Capitol Hill.

Some analysis last week By Center for Politics at the University of Virginia rated the race as leans towards democracynoting that the nationally observed contest remains “liquidFetterman has a slim 1.5-point advantage in the table RealClear Politics polling average.

US Capitol (Samuel Corum/Getty Images).

The University of Virginia The analysis shows that the overall fight for control of the upper house is a toss-up, with early voting already underway in two swing states, Nevada and Georgia, with “inconclusive” results.

“Democrats should be more worried about the races we rated as Lean Democratic than Republicans should be about the races we rated as Lean Republican,” analyst J. Miles Coleman he wrote.

in Pennsylvania Fetterman lead looks very similar to the similar advantage he uses U.S. Senator Mark Kelly, D-Ariz.who is the leader of the Republican Party Blake Masters in the up-to-date survey by 6 percentage points, but maintains an average advantage of 2.4 percent, by RealClear Politics.

Key difference by Colemanis that “Republicans throw away everything but the kitchen sink in Pennsylvania, but that doesn’t happen in Arizona.”

Coleman further notes that “much attention this year has been focused – rightly so, in our opinion – on the Republican Party’s questionable Senate candidates. Oz is one of them – he had Toomey run again or someone else was nominated, we have doubts Fetterman ever would seem like a favorite at first.

“But if Fetterman loses to Ozthere will rightly be many doubts about the quality in Democratic circles Fetterman candidacy and whether the party should have gone with someone else (or whether Fetterman “he should have withdrawn after suffering a stroke which he has not spoken clearly about since it occurred)” Coleman he stated.

(Capital-Star photo by Stephen Caruso)

So where does it all go overall?

The University of Virginia the analysis found that “Democrats and Republicans favored 49 seats each, with Georgia and Nevada being losers.

But if “Fetterman lead in Pennsylvania, Republicans will need to win both toss-up races to obtain a clear majority of 51 seats – something they seem perfectly capable of achieving.” Coleman he wrote. “Democrats who only need 50 seats, thanks Vice President Kamala Harris decisive vote, winning one of the tosses would be enough.”

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