Analysis: 2024 Pennsylvania Primary Turnout

The highlight of the 2024 Pennsylvania primary may have been Nikki Haley’s performance. This was significant enough to gain the attention of President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, making it clear that Haley, Pennsylvania voters would be welcomed into the Biden-Haley camp. Among the voters who cast ballots for Haley was former Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey The case was reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer..

Despite suspends the campaign on March 6still former governor of South Carolina received 157,581 votes or 16.6% of the GOP tally on Tuesday, indicating a downward trend in her total. For example, in the March 19 primary elections she average 15.3%but by the April 2 primary election, this percentage had dropped to approximately Average 12.5%..

But what’s much more troubling for the Trump campaign is where Haley’s votes came from. I compiled A Top 10 counties based on Haley’s resultsincluded below:

  • Chester: 24.98%
  • Montgomery: 24.66%
  • Delaware: 23.49%
  • Cumberland: 23.14%
  • Dolphin: 20.86%
  • Lancaster: 20.41%
  • Erie: 20.39%
  • Center: 19.41%
  • Allegheny: 19.32%
  • Bucks: 19.10%

All four of Philadelphia’s most critical counties made the list and even took all three of the top spots. Recall that Biden had a margin of 293,034 votes in these counties necessary for his victory in 2020because it was a noticeable improvement over Hillary’s 188,353-vote margin in 2016.

Key: Deep Pink – Haley performed better than the statewide average. Light Pink – Haley performed worse than the statewide average. (Map by Nick Field via Dave’s Redistricting)

Two years ago, Gov. Josh Shapiro set a recent record when recorded a margin of 388,273 from southeastern counties. Every step Biden can take toward that Shapiro number will exponentially enhance his re-election chances.

Speaking of Biden’s performance, turnout as the incumbent president in non-competitive primaries exceeded that of his immediate predecessors, though the only exception was Donald Trump.

asset in 2020 i Bush in 2004 both lost the Keystone State despite excellent base turnout service, while Bill Clinton AND Obama both won the commonwealth.

His tough to calculate although Pennsylvania enrollment totals NBC News reports this number in the Democratic primary – 55,339, or 5.3%. Geographically, buy-in votes tended to come from the left areas of Philadelphia or the state’s most rural counties.

Turnout in the Senate

As for the Senate matchup, while U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and GOP candidate David McCormick came out uncontested, we can still read a bit about the results. For example, Casey managed to overtake Biden collecting 1,011,430 votes. A total of 1,010,515 Democrats voted for Biden or Dean Phillips, meaning that even those who could have cast protest votes entered presidential votes while still filling the oval for Casey.

What’s more, we can compare these results to a similar point in Casey’s career. In 2012, he took part in the vote at the same time as the incumbent president of the Democratic Party. We’ve already discussed how Barack Obama got 616,102 votes in this race against the negative vote Senator Casey only received 565,488. That same year, he faced longtime primary challenger Joseph Vodvarka, who won 133,683 protest votes, or just over 19%.

However, in November, Casey won the race for Margin 53.69% to 44.59%. over Republican Tom Smith, overtaking President Obama Margin 51.97% to 46.59%. over Mitt Romney. In total, Casey received 31,090 more votes than Obama, and yet he did not finish first among statewide candidates, which is an honor he went instead to Democratic candidate for Attorney General Kathleen Kane (actually).

On the other hand, McCormick received 874,035 votes in Tuesday’s Republican primary. With 948,057 votes for Donald Trump or Nikki Haley in the presidential election, that means just over 92% of GOP presidential voters cast ballots for McCormick. They could be anti-Haley voters or even Trump supporters who still aren’t in love with McCormick. In fact, Trump took the time during one of his Tuesday court statements insist that his Pennsylvania supporters vote for McCormickso maybe the McCormick campaign saw penniless results internally and asked for facilitate?

In all of these cases, the lesson we can draw is that while the headline results don’t tell us much about November, they do reveal a lot about where all campaigns are currently at.

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