An internal poll shows Stelson within the margin of error against Perry

An internal poll released by the campaign shows the Democrat Janelle Stelson within the margin of error compared to a six-term Republican incumbent Scott Perry for the 10th Congressional District seat.

Poll conducted by Democrats Public Policy Survey (PPP) states that Perry received 45% support from 532 respondents, while Stelson received 43%, which is within +/-4.3% of the MOE. An additional 12 percent were undecided.

Stelson, a former WGAL-TV news anchor, has a proven track record after more than three decades as a television journalist in the region. According to PPP, among people who actually had an opinion about her, her positive net score is 6 points (33-27).

However, Perry’s scores are below expectations: -4 job acceptance and -5 favorability ratings. Thirty-nine percent of those surveyed approved of the congressman’s actions, while 44 percent disapproved.

PPP campaign disclosures also highlighted the importance reproductive rights will play in the race, as nearly 2 in 3 (65%) respondents said they would oppose a national abortion ban, while only 1 in 6 (16%) would support such a ban. Nearly half of Republicans (48%) and two-thirds of independents (645) asked said they would oppose such a move.

During PoliticsPA Voices of reason podcast, Berwood Yostdirector of the Floyd Institute for Public Policy and the Center for Public Research at Franklin & Marshall College, advised political observers to exercise caution when watching the “horse race.”

“Stop looking at horse racing,” he said. “This is the most unstable and difficult element for us to understand. We ask many other questions, and these are usually much more stable. So whether it’s the direction of the country’s development, whether it’s about citizens’ personal finances, whether it’s the most important issue facing the voter… there are many indicators that we ask about that tend to remain relatively stable from survey to survey.

“I would say if you’re evaluating a survey and trying to understand it, look at its methods.”

Stelson’s campaign released a preschool poll commissioned in February that showed her with a 20-point lead over the other five Democratic candidates for the nomination. It turned out to be the unofficial final advantage over the runner-up Mike O’Brien.

According to pollster ratings collected by 538.com because the organization relies on the historical track record and methodological transparency of each research firm’s surveys, PPP ranks 206th out of 277 in its survey. Its rating of 1.4 out of three is an indicator of 538 confidence in its work in 537 surveys.

By comparison, Muhlenberg College’s Public Opinion Institute ranks 11th and Franklin & Marshall ranks 57th. Susquehanna Polling & Research, a group that also conducts public opinion research in Pennsylvania, ranks 62nd.

PPP surveyed 532 voters in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District on April 24-25, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 4.3%. Fifty-eight percent of the study’s interviews were conducted via text message and 42% by telephone.