By Craig Lang
After a balmy welcome from President Donald Trump and Republican and Democratic Party lawmakers earlier this month, troubled Venezuelan President Juan Guiadó’s return home did not reflect the treatment he received from the head of state in Washington.
Supporters of President Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela has two presidents after most of the democratic world refused to recognize Maduro’s 2018 re-election as free and fair) harassed Guiadó at the airport, and his uncle was detained by the Maduro regime.
Next, while Washington’s show of bipartisan support was important, it will mean little if the Venezuelan people and the United States (and its allies) do not persevere in the fight to persuade the authoritarian Maduro to step down and call a presidential election.
However, after a year of political stalemate in Venezuela, these goals will not be simple to achieve; in fact, the United States announced sanctions last week against a company linked to Russia because of its ties to the Maduro regime.
Moreover, U.S. policy goals may require it to diplomatically confront other countries, such as India and China, over their purchases of Venezuelan oil. Should the United States therefore become more involved in Venezuela’s problems? Here are two reasons why this country and its people matter.
Venezuela is important to the US and its allies.
Although Maduro likes to publicly degrade the “Yankee imperialist empire,” the United States has been one of his biggest clients. Before sanctions were imposed on Venezuela’s oil sector, Bought in the USA from 213,000 to 560,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil per year. Following US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil in 2019 Russia now earns hundreds of millions of dollars helping Venezuela bypass the US embargo.
But this relationship is about more than just oil. Bordering Venezuela is Colombia, one of our closest allies. Colombia is important because it remains the largest exporter of cocaine to the United States, and under the free trade agreement, the U.S. and Colombia exchange goods worth about $28 billion annually. Moreover, following Colombia’s historic 2016 peace agreement with left-wing guerrillas, the United States and Colombians were sanguine about improved security and stability in the Andean country.
Unfortunately, instability and corruption in Venezuela complicate Colombia’s efforts to combat illegal drugs and transition to peace, as the former is accused of serving as a protected haven for both sides drug dealers and guerrillas. As a result, a dysfunctional Venezuela is not good for regional security or overall U.S. interests.
Venezuela is immersed in a humanitarian crisis.
At least 4 million Venezuelans have been fleeing their homes, mainly since 2015. Most of the displaced people fled to Colombia, but some remain in the United States. Under President Maduro, the once oil-rich nation of Venezuela is now on the brink of collapse.
Due to mismanagement of the oil sector, lower global oil prices and the government corruptionMaduro struggles to provide even the most basic services. In 2017, one report found that the average Venezuelan has lost 24 pounds this year due to food shortages, and the percentage of Venezuelans living in poverty has increased from 48 percent in 2014 to more than 87 percent in 2017. Rising poverty has also led to an boost in crime. In 2017, Venezuela murder rate (51 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants) is more than twice the average in Latin America.
Due to these conditions, Venezuelans protested seriously against Maduro in 2017. While these protests continue, albeit with less frequency and intensity, government in response, it jailed opposition leaders and detained, tortured, and allegedly killed protesters. This behavior put Venezuela on the radar International Criminal Courtwhich initiated a preliminary study in 2018.
Despite attempts by the international community (recently Norway) to mediate a solution to the situation, Maduro refuses to call early presidential elections, and despite several defections, the military remains devoted to the authoritarian leader.
Even though modern sanctions were imposed this week, democracy supporters in Venezuela cannot afford to tire. The Venezuelan opposition must recommit to unity, its citizens must continue to peacefully demand modern presidential elections, the International Criminal Court must continue its investigations, and those offering Maduro’s rescue must face diplomatic and/or financial repercussions.
Craig Lang is visiting professor of government at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. From 2001 to 2011, he served as a foreign affairs officer at the US Department of State.
