Odd-numbered or odd-numbered years tend to favor parties outside the White House, and 2023 appears to be no exception.
From my last voter registration update in October 2022Pennsylvania Republicans made impressive gains across the commonwealth. At that time, the Democratic statewide lead was 549,288, and that lead has dropped to 445,890, a 103,398 shift toward the Pennsylvania GOP.
How I noticed a lot times beforegiven the historical Democratic advantage, the GOP always tends to gain points except during the most Democratic-leaning periods. Nevertheless, this degree of change is still noticeable.
So what exactly can these trends tell us ahead of Election Night 2023 and the 2024 presidential cycle? Well, let’s dive in and find out!
Quick note: I’m exploring our changing electoral trends by tracking the profits that one party has accumulated in registrations relative to the other party. For example, R+500 means that the Republican Party gained 500 net more registered voters in that county than the Democratic Party during this period, while D+500 means the opposite.
Central
- Blair: R+319
- Bradford: R+130
- Cameron: R+82
- Center: R+1217
- Clearfield: R+764
- Clinton: R+573
- Colombia: R+557
- Canada deer: R+555
- Huntington: R+384
- Juniata: R+108
- Lycoming: R+355
- McKean: R+197
- Mifflin: R+188
- Montour: R+137
- Northumberland: R+1053
- Potter: R+193
- Codes: R+117
- Sullivan: R+64
- Tioga: R+248
- Union: D+38
Traditionally, Center County, home to Penn State University, is the only blue island in a sea of red in the central Commonwealth. This time, however, the exception is Union County, home to Bucknell University. This county has gained popularity from then on to the left the beginning of the Trump eraand this map is simply the most blatant example of this movement.
Northeast
- Coal: R+864
- Lackawanna: R+2836
- Lucerne: R+3986
- Monroe: R+1479
- Pike: R+656
- Schuylkill: R+1321
- Susquehanna: R+214
- Wayne: R+362
- Wyoming: R+136
Pennsylvania Republicans choose registrants already a quarter of a century In the once solidly Democratic Scranton/Wilkes-Barre corridor running through Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. And yet, candidates Josh Shapiro AND John Fetterman they both did quite well here last year, much better than even “Scranton” Joe Biden did in 2020. As a result, this will be one area I will be watching closely on November 7 to gauge the prevailing mood here ahead of 2024.
Northwest
- Spicy: R+301
- Crawford: R+639
- Erie: R+2989
- Forest: R+81
- Jefferson: R+227
- Mercer: R+1440
- Then: R+257
- Warren: R+484
The northwest corner of the Commonwealth is home to one of Pennsylvania’s two victories Obama, Trump and Biden counties. Actually since Trump’s upset in 2016political observers consider this lake county a statewide leader. Nevertheless, Democratic candidates in almost every major race they win in Erie, even though the GOP continues to make gains there. At some point, one of these two trends will have to give way to the other.
South Central
- Adams: R+355
- Bedford: R+194
- Cumberland: D+282
- Dolphin: R+1458
- Franklin: R+337
- Fulton: R+216
- Lancaster: R+62
- Lebanon: R+373
- Perry: R+187
- York: R+1860
Just as Union was an outlier in central Pennsylvania, Cumberland is an outlier in south-central Pennsylvania. Thanks well-educated suburbs there are Democrats across the river from Harrisburg is slowly but steadily gaining popularity in this traditionally Republican county. Last year, Gov. Josh Shapiro I managed to win italthough Fetterman it came out compact in the Senate competition. This divergent result suggests that Cumberland County may very well become a 2024 presidential battleground.
On the other hand, despite the latest democratic trends in places like Dauphin and Lancaster, the GOP was able to turn things around. Republicans continued to gather significant membership in York County, Washington The large red machine Keystone State.
Southeast
- Berki: R+3937
- Bucks: R+3497
- Chester: D+104
- Delaware: D+898
- Lehigh: R+2969
- Montgomery: R+430
- Northampton: R+2349
- Philadelphia: R+26040
Altogether, these are probably the most disturbing numbers for Pennsylvania Democrats, considering just that how dependent they have become on enormous margins from Philadelphia and its counties. Even Montgomery County, Shapiro’s hometown, saw a slight loss last year. Ultimately, only Chester and Delaware managed to stem the tide.
Meanwhile, Berks County – long the reddest of the Lehigh Valley trio – was also one of two counties to switch from a Democratic plurality to a Republican plurality within the last year. The the reddest of Philadelphia’s countiesBucks County also saw a large shift toward the GOP; although Democrats still have the advantage there. Finally, Republicans had major successes in Northampton, Pennsylvania another leader of Obama, Trump and Biden.
Southwest
- Allegheny: R+16024
- Armstrong: R+549
- Beaver: R+2097
- Butler: R+979
- Cambria: R+2468
- Fayette: R+4990
- Greene: R+745
- Indiana: R+726
- Lawrence: R+1232
- Somerset: R+715
- Washington: R+2368
- Westmoreland: R+3820
In addition to Berks, Republicans also overtook Democrats in Fayette County, one of the last vestiges of the revolution ancestors Appalachian Democrats. The last Democratic holdout among Allegheny’s neighbors is Beaver, where narrow advantage is expected to disappear in the next few weeks.
All the while, the Pennsylvania Republican Party was making gains on more than just the playing field main red voting engines like Washington and Westmoreland counties, but also in Allegheny. As a result, any statewide Republican victories on Nov. 7 will be fueled by colossal margins in this increasingly red southwestern corner of the Commonwealth.
Application
What does all this tell us? How well do voter registration trends predict actual election results?
Well, during the last off-year elections in 2021. Republican gains he finally did it lead to victories this November. Moreover, we also saw a marked rise in the Democratic Party after Dobbs in the period preceding them better-than-expected interim results in 2022.
At the same time, the Pennsylvania Republican Party was sanguine that theirs Registration Profits in 2020 were signs another gloomy victory for Trumpwhich of course it never happened. So we know there is no perfect correlation here.
We’ll just have to wait for the results, as the November 7 election has given us a fantastic overview of the Commonwealth of Nations, from statewide judicial races to individual district contests. So let the lesson be that there are really no years past due.
