We’ve finally arrived at the final voter registration update ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
As you can clearly see in the map above, Pennsylvania Republicans continue to take advantage of the Democratic registration advantage that has been built during the Obama years. IN end of October 2016for example, Dems had 911,621 registration leads statewide.
Four years later, the GOP this has been reduced to 700,853. Today, the Democratic margin is just 281,091.
Now, that momentum doesn’t guarantee former President Donald Trump a win in the Keystone State. It’s worth repeating that with Election Night just days away, voter registrations tend to be lagging indicators. Basically, it’s not the case that fresh voters necessarily join the ranks of voters who want to vote for Trump; we’ll probably see it instead Democratic ancestors who voted for Trump in the past are now officially switching to the Republican Party.
Taking this into account, the elections are approaching – and in this Community preferred as critical condition – this is a great time to not only look at the latest registration numbers, but also analyze what Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump will need to do in these regions to win Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.
So let’s dive in.
Quick note: I’m exploring our changing electoral trends by tracking the profits that one party has accumulated in registrations relative to the other party. For example, R+500 means that the Republican Party gained 500 net more registered voters in that county than the Democratic Party during this period, while D+500 means the opposite.
Central
- Blair: R+1444
- Bradford: R+793
- Cameron: R+56
- Center: R+145
- Clearfield: R+1055
- Clinton: R+491
- Colombia: R+755
- Canada deer: R+384
- Huntington: R+440
- Juniata: R+254
- Lycoming: R+1128
- McKean: R+450
- Mifflin: R+541
- Montour: R+154
- Northumberland: R+945
- Potter: R+219
- Codes: R+422
- Sullivan: R+70
- Tioga: R+478
- Union: R+276
Even with an influx of fresh students entering Penn State University, Democrats still failed to make gains in Center County. Donald Trump is trying to limit Harris’s support among teenage men, and he is doing this to this end paid a visit to the State Higher Vocational School last week. Although it would certainly be a surprise if the GOP won this county for the first time since 2004margins will matter everywhere, even in this largely rural central part of the Commonwealth.
Northeast
- Coal: R+716
- Lackawanna: R+1357
- Lucerne: R+2904
- Monroe: R+792
- Pike: R+636
- Schuylkill: R+1710
- Susquehanna: R+554
- Wayne: R+679
- Wyoming: R+364
Since my last update, we have seen Republicans overtake Democrats in registration numbers in Luzerne County, which is progress long time in preparation. After all, Trump is here he won Lucerne twice by double digits. Still, Scranton Joe did a real attack on roads across the North East four years agoi.e. benchmarks that may be tough to achieve next week. To this end, the White House just approved nearly $9 million in Amtrak funds to support Senator Bob Casey and U.S. Representative Matt Cartwright here.
Northwest
- Spicy: R+506
- Crawford: R+1020
- Erie: R+1310
- Forest: R+55
- Jefferson: R+701
- Mercer: R+1379
- Then: R+592
- Warren: R+353
There is a reason why all four candidates for president and vice president – Harris, Trump, Vance AND Walz – all held rallies in the lakeside community of Erie. Bellwether County voted for the statewide winner 18 of 19 presidential elections after World War IIand I imagine next week it will be 19 of 20. In terms of registration numbers, Erie is like many of the most vital counties in the commonwealth: Republicans have momentum, while Democrats still hold the advantage.
South Central
- Adams: R+1078
- Bedford: R+624
- Cumberland: R+1061
- Dolphin: R+856
- Franklin: R+1422
- Fulton: R+225
- Lancaster: R+3987
- Lebanon: R+1351
- Perry: R+533
- York: R+3688
The south central region includes college-educated white voters that Harris is trying to reach arguments about Trump’s threat to democracy AND her long list of support from the Republican Party, which has never supported Trump. Janelle Stelson also depends on these voters make her nervous over GOP brand representative Scott Perry w PA 10th Congressional District Here. Nevertheless, the Republican Party continues to make registration gains in the region, especially in densely populated Lancaster and York counties, where Democrats they aimed to reduce Trump’s margin.
Southeast
- Berki: R+3566
- bucks: R+4437
- Chester: R+1391
- Delaware: R+298
- Lehigh: R+1103
- Montgomery: R+2002
- Northampton: R+712
- Philadelphia: D+8146
The good news for Democrats is that they managed to enhance their numbers in Philadelphia, the bad news is that Republicans continued to make real gains in the Coll County suburbs. As I will illustrate in a moment; Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery are key to Harris’ path to the White House and she absolutely cannot afford to underperform here.
With all this in mind, we shouldn’t underestimate the Lehigh Valley, especially cities like Allentown, where This was recently reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer that Puerto Ricans constitute 27% of the total population. Harris’ campaign was they are already targeting these voters as a demographic where they could improve after Biden’s performanceand that was before racist comments at Trump’s MSG rally. Now Democrats are hopeful that the controversy could turn thousands of late-deciding voters to their side.
Southwest
- Allegheny: D+2134
- Armstrong: R+1032
- Beaver: R+1554
- Butler: R+2431
- Cambria: R+1509
- Fayette: R+1849
- Greene: R+421
- Indiana: R+1118
- Lawrence: R+985
- Somerset: R+1002
- Washington: R+2499
- Westmoreland: R+3932
While the Southeast will certainly be key, we still cannot overlook this vote-rich region. Trump 2016 upset after all, it was fed by the southwest, and Four years later, Biden was trying to eat into Trump’s margins were integral to his success. To this end, the Harris campaign sent the vice president to various locations like Aliquippa AND Johnstown in hopes of once again destroying some of Trump’s support in this country.
Moreover, Harris will have to outdo Biden good results in Allegheny Countythe only other place where Democrats collected registrations over the past month. The Steel City seat was a fundamental element of Democratic victories this decade – John Fetterman AND Josh Shapiro both were very successful here in 2022 – so Harris will want to become the first presidential candidate to exceed 60% in Allegheny from LBJ in 1964.
How many votes will Harris need from Philadelphia and its suburbs?
Elections are really about margins.
Trump’s team is seeking to maximize its margins in rural Pennsylvania while seeking to shrink Harris’ margins in urban and suburban areas. Harris, on the other hand, is trying to bite into Trump’s rural periphery while growing population in urban and suburban areas.
Given the proximity of the 2020 result (50.01% to 48.84%) each campaign will compare how the number of votes cast in precincts on election night differs from the number of votes in 2020.
Harris will look to expand gains in the Commonwealth’s south-central region, while Trump will try to expand in the Northeast. Then there are the areas targeted by both campaigns, including: Erie, the Lehigh Valley and the counties surrounding Allegheny.
But in every respect, one region stands out from the rest. Philadelphia and its four collar counties four years ago it constituted one third of the total number of votesand Harris’s margin in this regard will certainly be crucial.
To illustrate this point, I’ve compiled this list of SEPA margins that various statewide Democratic candidates have accumulated over the last few decades.
SEPA Voting Margins (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia Counties)
- 2022 Shapiro: 749865
- 2022 Fetterman: 588575
- 2020 Biden: 764144
- Wilk 2018: 754020
- 2018 Casey: 704,428
- Clinton 2016: 663,630
- 2016 McGinty: 504264
- 2012 Casey: 639536
- Obama 2012: 615,666
- 2008 Obama: 682,392
- 2006 Rendell: 712,080
- 2006 Casey: 464,857
As seen for years Gov. Ed Rendell’s re-election landslide In The year of the wave of democracy 2006 was a high-water mark. Hillary Clinton took aim at this in 2016and although she did better than several others, she failed to achieve Rendell’s high. In the Clinton race he lost by 44,292 votesa difference of 48,450 votes to Rendell made the difference.
In Half-year 2018However, Tomek Wilk AND Bob Casey both won landslide victories, and then-Gov. Wolf he even managed to arrange a fresh vote on SEPA a record margin of 754,020. The list also allows us to chart Casey’s rise in votes cast in this region, which will be crucial to his re-election hopes.
Just two years after Wolf broke Rendell’s record, Joe Biden was able to break it with a lead of 764,144. Biden achieved this mainly by his performance in the suburbsbecause his lead in Philadelphia (471,050) didn’t just decline Obama’s record margin in 2012 in the city (492,339), but also Hillary Clinton’s margin for 2016 (475,277).
In his own Victory in 2022 is a landslideShapiro set a fresh record in the suburbs (388,273), but with lower turnout in Philadelphia (361,592), it was slightly lower overall (749,865).
Ideally for Harris’ campaign, she would combine a Shapiro-style suburban performance with a return to Obama’s margins in Philadelphia. That’s almost certainly an overly hopeful conclusion, but the reality is that Harris’ hopes in the White House depend on raising the ceiling in the Southeast.
While her campaign is cleverly questioning the entire Commonwealth, the job will likely still go unrewarded if Harris receives a SEPA margin in the range of Hillary Clinton’s (663,630). Instead, she will have to aim closer to the 800,000-vote margin to give her as much breathing room as possible in the rest of the state.
So that’s the state of affairs heading into election night. Given the stakes of this election and the importance of PA’s 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania’s vote has never mattered more than it does now. Choose wisely.
YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE.
