Donald Trump won back Pennsylvania and the presidency on Tuesday when the urban coalition that propelled Joe Biden to victory in the state in 2020 failed to show up for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump won the state by 171,000 votes, largely by reducing Democratic turnout in the major metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Harris won 89,000 fewer votes in these major metropolitan areas than Biden did in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump won about 30,000 more votes this year than he did in 2020 in and around the same counties of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. (The Daily Yonder defines major metropolitan areas as those with at least 1 million people.)
The difference was crucial in a state where both candidates had to win Electoral College votes.
By percentage, Trump won in every county category except major metro cities and suburbs. It lost the core counties of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (major metro) by 39 points, but that was 2 percentage points better than in 2020. In the suburbs of these major cities, it lost less than a point, which was 2 points better than in 2020.
Trump carried all other types of counties, from diminutive rural areas to mid-sized cities. Thanks to this, he improved his results in 2020. In mid-sized metro areas it performed about 1.5 points better; 0.9 points better in diminutive meters; and 0.8 points better in rural (non-metric) counties.
Rural districts were the least likely to shift toward Trump from 2020 to 2024, but that’s partly because his margin was already so high. Trump won 73.4% of the vote in rural Pennsylvania this year, compared to 72.5% in 2020.
Medium-sized metropolitan areas
In mid-sized metropolitan areas, Trump received 38,000 more votes than in 2020, while Harris received 19,000 fewer votes than Biden in 2020.
Trump won both those metropolitan core counties and their suburbs by about 11 points, about 1.5 points better than in 2020.
Medium-sized metropolises have populations ranging from 250,000 to less than 1 million. These include cities and surrounding counties such as Allenton, Erie, Harrisburg, Lancaster, Reading, Scranton and York.
Little Metro
Turnout was lower for both candidates in diminutive Pennsylvania metropolitan areas of less than 250,000 people. There are nine diminutive metropolitan areas in the state, from East Stroudsburg (Monroe County) in the east to Johnston (Cambria County) in the west.
In diminutive towns, both Trump and Harris won 25,000 to 30,000 fewer votes compared to the 2020 election.
Trump received nearly two-thirds of the vote in these counties, a slight improvement from 2020.
Rural districts
Trump improved his rural vote share in Pennsylvania by less than a percentage point compared to 2020. Trump gained about 17,000 additional votes compared to 2020, while Harris lost about 2,100 compared to Biden’s 2020 performance. The net change was about 15,000 additional votes for Trump among rural voters.
Trump won rural counties by more than 45 points.
Methodology: Daily Yonder uses 2013 data from the Office of Metropolitan Statistical Area Management and Budget to determine county categories.
This article appeared for the first time Daily Tam and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
