Trump, Biden Were Close in Pennsylvania Before Assassination Attempt, Poll Shows

A New York Times-Siena College poll conducted shortly before the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump showed Trump leading President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by 3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.

This the survey also showed the desire of Democrats and independent candidates to replace Biden on the candidate list.

In a hypothetical situation In a comparison of Trump to Vice President Kamala Harris, Harris did slightly better than Biden in Pennsylvania, but she was still 1 percentage point worse than Trump, which is also within the margin of error plus/minus 3.8 percentage points.

While there have been rumors that various candidates are being considered as potential successors to Biden due to concerns about the president’s age, Harris was considered the most natural successor because he is already on the candidate list and serves as vice president.

The results of the poll, conducted between July 9 and 11, are a reminder that Pennsylvania remains a key swing state. for both candidates. Trump won the state in 2016 by a little less than 1 percentage point, and Biden won in 2020 by a little more than 1 percentage point.

The Biden-Trump results show a continuing statistical tie in Pennsylvania, mirroring the results of an Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll from May. Analysis of times. Biden’s campaign conceded Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the “brightest path” to victory for a Democrat.

In addition to making the race incredibly close, the poll reflected the nationwide debate over whether Biden is the best Democratic candidate and showed that independents are dissatisfied with neither option.

Among likely voters, 43% of self-identifying Democrats in Pennsylvania wanted Biden to withdraw and allow another candidate to be nominated, while 63% of self-identifying independents said the same. By contrast, only 14% of self-identifying Republicans said the same about Trump, while 49% of self-identifying independents said Trump should withdraw.

According to the Times, Democratic respondents who wanted Biden to step down were mostly younger and better educated than those who wanted him to remain the candidate.

The ages of both candidates were a subject of ongoing debate during the campaign, with increasing attention paid to Biden’s aging. Among likely voters, 59% of self-identified Democrats in Pennsylvania said Biden, 81, was too senior to run for president, but only 19% of self-identified Republicans said the same about Trump, 78. Self-identified independents were more critical of each candidate, with 77% calling Biden too senior and 48% calling Trump too senior.

Concerns about Biden’s age intensified after his indigent debate performance, and a Times/Siena College poll conducted after the debate showed Trump leading Biden nationally by six percentage points.

The percentage of likely voters in Pennsylvania who view Trump and Biden very favorably remained the same as in the May poll, with Biden at 20% and Trump at 29%. However, Biden saw a slight decline, from 21% to 19%, among likely voters who viewed him somewhat favorably, while Trump saw a slight escalate, from 16% to 17%, among likely voters who viewed him that way.

Overall, among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Trump’s approval rating remained at 45% from May to July, while Biden’s approval rating fell from 42% to 39%. Support among likely voters who had an unfavorable view of Biden rose slightly, while Trump’s approval rating fell slightly.

Still, 53% of likely voters in Pennsylvania believe Trump, who was convicted in New York in May of 34 felonies for falsifying business records to conceal a hush money payment to a porn star during the 2016 election and who faces criminal charges over his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, has committed “serious federal crimes.”

Harris is viewed slightly more favorably overall than Biden, with 42% support among Pennsylvania likely voters. Her net unfavorability is 55%, which is lower than Biden’s 59%. That said, more likely voters viewed Harris as “somewhat favorable” (24%) than very favorable (18%).

Positive views of Harris were slightly stronger than overall views of Biden among black voters, younger voters and women, significant voting blocs for a Democratic victory. But most of her support came from infrequent voters who may not be reliable in showing up at the polls, according to the Times.

Biden has managed to gain more support among black voters in Pennsylvania. But he has also lost some support in the suburbs, according to The Times. Both groups are significant to a Democratic victory.

The poll also showed Biden struggling in Virginia, a state he won by 10 points in 2020. A July poll showed Biden with just a 3-point lead over Trump in the state, another close race within the margin of error. A Republican presidential candidate has not won Virginia since 2004.