Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are in fierce fight for the White HouseEvery voting bloc will count – including union members and others in their households.
Most union leaders have experience spanning generations supported Democratic candidatesAND this race is no exception. Although rank-and-file union members have also historically sided largely with the Democratic Party, that support has fluctuated for at least the past 45 years. In 2016, indicated exit polls that voters in unionized households supported Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton over Trump by just 8 percentage points, compared with 18 percentage points in 2012, when Barack Obama was on the ballot.
No Democratic presidential candidate has scored worse among union voters since Ronald Reagan Reagan’s victories over Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale in 1980 and 1984.
Union voters are particularly popular in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevadathree states where the percentage of unionized voters exceeds the national average of 10%.
End of 2023 New York Times/Siena College poll covers six key states that Joe Biden won in 2020 – those three plus Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin – shows that Biden and Trump were tied at 47% among union voters when asked who they would vote for in 2024. Biden had 8 percentage point lead among the same voters in 2020according to another study.
3 key issues
Union voters, like all U.S. citizens, worry about many issues. But more than most people, they take seriously a candidate’s record of support for workers and organized labor. Labor historians generally agree that Biden Administration has the second-best score on favorability toward unions, after Franklin D. Roosevelt.
And I state that historian Nelson Lichtenstein, who argues that the Trump years were bad for unions when he was in power, which illustrates how labor experts assess his record so far.
As a labor scholar, I believe three aspects of candidates’ performance are most likely to influence union members’ decisions.
Federal employees
Trump signed three implementing decrees in 2018 which restricted the labor rights of about 950,000 unionized federal government workers. In 2020, he signed another bill known as Annex Fwhich, according to The Washington Post, was “designed to destroy civil service job protections.”
Biden these executive orders were revokedHe also created a White House task force to make recommendations on improving federal employee unionization procedures, chaired by Harris. The number federal workers in unions has increased by tens of thousands during the Biden administration.
Union elections
The rules governing how elections are conducted when workers express an interest in forming a union date back to the 1930s, when Roosevelt signed Labor Relations Act to the law. National Labor Relations Boardestablished under this legislation, supervises union elections.
In 2019, when Trump appointees held a majority of five seats on the NLRB, the board overturned an Obama-era NLRB ruling ordering a snap election. In 2023, when Biden appointees were in the majority, the board issued a ruling in favor of the unions that reversed the Trump-era ruling.
Today, when a majority of employees in the workplace say they want union representation, the employer must either recognize the union and negotiate with it or seek elections. If the employer violates labor law in the period leading up to the election, the election will be canceled and The NLRB may order an employer recognize the union and negotiate with it.
OSHA
This Occupational Health and Safety Administrationan agency of the Department of Labor, responsible for the health and safety of U.S. workers.
There have been fewer workplace inspections under the Trump administration than under Obama’s second term. Much of the decline is due to the snail-paced hiring of recent OSHA inspectors. to replace those who have retired.
This the number of inspections is growing againHowever, according to OSHA calculations, workplace injuries and deaths increased during Biden administration.
This The Trump administration has not issued any workplace regulations. on coronavirus safety, putting hundreds of thousands of people working in healthcare, grocery stores, meat processing plants and education at risk.
By comparison, two days after taking office in 2021, Biden issued an executive order establishing guidelines for wearing masks, and his administration I have implemented workplace health and safety protocols a priority during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Compared to the Trump administration’s inaction during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Biden administration has been more proactive in proposing health and safety measures. For example, in July 2024, it proposed legislation to protect an estimated 36 million workers from health risks associated with extreme heatAfter the written comment period has passed, public hearings will be held on the bill.
When Trump tried to cut OSHA funding for 2018 by about $10 million, Congress blocked his efforts. The Biden administration is demanding a 3.7% boost in OSHA’s budget for tax year 2025.
Legislative and Gubernatorial Records
Harris was a U.S. senator before she became vice president; her vice presidential running mate, Tim Walz, is the governor of Minnesota and previously served in Congress; and the Republican vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, is also currently a U.S. senator. The candidates’ records in these positions are also indicators of what they might try to do in the White House.
The AFL-CIO, the largest umbrella organization of labor unions in the U.S., awarded Harris Life Score 98% on her voting history in the Senate. Waltz received a 93% voter approval rating from the AFL-CIO while he was in the House of Representatives. He was a member of National Education Associationlargest trade union in the country, working as a secondary school teacher.
As governor of Minnesota, Walz signed the bill into law paid diseased days for public employees and a measure that made Minnesota the first state to establish a minimum wage for Uber and Lyft drivers. In 2023, Walz also signed legislation creating the Nursing Home Workforce Standards Board to oversee the health and well-being of nursing home workers.
AFL-CIO admitted Vance 0% evaluation of his Senate votes in the 2024 midterms. Among other things, Vance has opposed the nominations of several judges and government officials with a pro-union history.
Addressing Automotive Industry Workers
Perhaps the most noticeable sign Biden’s Support for Labor Unions this came in September 2023, when he walked the picket line in Michigan with striking members of the United Auto Workers. He was the first president to do so.
Trump appeared nearby the next day. He gave a speech at a non-union auto parts factory.
Trump recently did not do any favors for union voters and their allies when, in a highly publicized conversation with Tesla, SpaceX and X CEO Elon Musk, praised Musk for firing workers Who spoke about problems in the workplace and tried to form a trade union.
It is not clear how union households will vote in 2024. But it is There is no doubt that the Harris and Trump campaigns you are sure it will matter, just like in 2020when Biden won narrowly Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – and in 2016, when Clinton lost in these states.
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