These seats in the House of Pa. may change parties in the November elections

All 203 state House seats are up for re-election this year. But only a few races will decide who takes or maintains control.

Democrats shocked the state in 2022 when they flipped the state House by a slim majority for the first time in 12 years. Officials expected the state’s modern redistricting maps, which gave Republicans a slight edge over Democrats, to be more competitive, but they didn’t expect they would change that so quickly.

House Democrats currently control the lower chamber by just one vote and have at times had to rely on moderate Bucks County Republicans to pass bills they couldn’t get the support of the entire bench. During the two-year legislative session, lawmaking was repeatedly halted by more than a half-dozen resignations that resulted in Democrats gaining a numerical majority.

“We have shown what it means to truly meet the needs of everyday Pennsylvanians and better meet the needs of our communities,” said Joanna McClinton, the history-making House speaker representing parts of Philadelphia and Delaware County in the 191st District. who was elected after Democrats took control.

Gov. Josh Shapiro is campaigning for Democrats to maintain control of the House of Representatives. A first-term Democratic governor has a better chance of enacting his shared priorities with a Democratic House than if he continually championed a Republican legislature. (Republicans control the state Senate and are expected to maintain that control after the November 5 elections.)

Despite the more competitive maps, there are still fewer than a dozen races that are real toss-ups that will decide who controls the State House. National Democratic groups and party leaders have pumped millions into maintaining control of the House of Representatives and are expected to spend more in the final five weeks before the election.

According to an Inquirer analysis of 2020 election data and voter registration data across Pennsylvania, five Democrats and five Republicans are vulnerable to a challenger because of the composition of their districts.

Here’s a look at the most competitive statewide races in the Nov. 5 election and how much leaders are willing to risk — for Republicans to take back the House or for Democrats to shore up their slim majority.

Defenseless Republicans

Local races to watch

Among the most vulnerable are two Republicans from Lower Bucks County, a Democratic stronghold that Republicans managed to hold until the last election. Rep. Joe Hogan (R., Bucks)representing parts of Middletown Township, Penndel Borough and Hulmeville Borough in the 142nd District, won in 2022 by fewer than 80 votes. Challenges for him Anne PayneMiddletown County Supervisor.

Rep. KC Tomlinson (R., Bucks)which represents part of Bensalem, also faces a competitor Anand Patelformer director of the Bensalem City School Board and petite business owner in District 18.

The last Republican from Delaware County, Rep. Craig Williams (R., Delaware) he will also have to fight a difficult fight to stay in his place Elżbieta Morobusiness owner, in the 160th district. Williams’ district covers parts of Delaware and eastern Chester counties. It remains a Republican-controlled district, but Democrats are confident they can flip the seat and turn Delco all blue.

The seats of Tomlinson, Williams and Hogan are top targets that Democrats believe can flip and expand their majority (after protecting seats they already hold), top Democratic legislative leaders said.

“The suburbs offer a huge path forward,” said House Majority Leader Matt Bradford (R-Montgomery). “The reorientation that we have been observing in the suburbs only since 2018, i.e. the wholesale transition from red to blue, is encouraging.”

Other races to watch across Pennsylvania

In the Lehigh Valley 147th district, Rep. Joe Emrick (R., Northampton)who represents the commune of Bethlehem and surrounding communities, will face a hard challenge Anna Tomaszone of the main candidates National Democrats considered it a key choice.

In western Pennsylvania, a Republican incumbent Rep. Valerie Gaydos (R., Allegheny)will face Hadley Haasgun reform supporter and leader of Moms Demand Action in Pittsburgh’s 44th District. Gaydos is part of a politically mixed suburb of Pittsburgh, while the rest of Western Pennsylvania runs red.

Sensitive Democrats

Local races to watch

Rep. Brian Munroe (D., Bucks) faces a tough challenge from Republicans Daniel McPhillips in the 144th district. While Democrats say they think they can flip the remaining Republican seats blue, Republicans have an advantage in November: Republicans outnumber Democrats in Bucks, the purplest county in the battleground.

“Bucks County is kind of ground zero,” said House Minority Leader Bryan Cutler (R., Lancaster).

Other races to watch across Pennsylvania

Former President Donald Trump may have received over 65% of the vote in 2020, but… Rep. Frank Burns (D., Cambria)was re-elected to an eighth term in 2022. He is running a Trump-style campaign against Amy Bradleythe president of the local chamber of commerce in the 72nd district to keep his headquarters. Burns rejected several more socially liberal policy proposals from Democrats in the House, but is still seen as a possible advantage for Republicans.

“There are about a half-dozen seats that President Trump has done very well in, and I expect we will do well in them,” Cutler added.

Rep. Ryan Bizzarro (D., Erie) it also represents a Republican-leaning district, although to a lesser extent. Bizzarro, who chairs the House policy committee responsible for setting the Democratic agenda, lost his nomination for treasurer in April and now must keep his job to remain in state government. He faces a Republican challenger Michah Goringpetite business owner and U.S. Air Force veteran from the 3rd House District.

Two suburban Pittsburgh Democratic representatives in the 16th and 33rd House Districts also face losing their seats: Representatives Rob Matzie AND Mandy Steele. Matzi’s district is Republican and extends into Beaver County, while Steele’s district leans Democratic. Both are seen as potential benefits for Republicans.