(Central Square) – Removing a sitting governor is historically considered an uphill battle for any candidate, even if a party clears the primary field for one candidate.
It’s even harder when it happens to be the governor Josh Shapiropopular Democrat, once considered as Kamala Harris presidential candidate and has long been rumored to run for president in 2028.
Treasurer Stacy Garritybut he hopes to do just that.
“Josh Shapiro let us down,” Garrity said Friday during the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference at the Penn Harris Hotel in Camp Hill. “But somehow he believes he deserves a promotion.”
“He is more focused on his personal political ambitions than on fixing the problems facing Pennsylvanians today,” she added.
Garrity also recalled the story that came before President Ronald Reagan she would talk about how voters’ eyes “opened” and compare it to the dynamics she believes it is gaining.
However, surveys and nationwide ratings agencies paint a challenging road ahead.
Susquehanna Polling and Research conducted a March 9–17 poll that showed Shapiro leading Garrity by 22 points. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted February 19–23 showed Shapiro ahead of Garrity by 18 points.
On March 11, the Cook Political Report, a national ratings outlet, moved the 2026 gubernatorial bid even further in Shapiro’s favor, changing his rating from “Likely Democratic” to “Strong Democratic.”
“Shapiro has a consistent 60% approval rating, a huge cash advantage and a commanding polling lead over GOP state treasurer Stacy Garrity, making it almost impossible for him to see him fail in his bid for a second term,” the Cook Political Report said in its summary of the race.
Chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party Greg Rothman in an interview with The Center, Square rejected the credibility of the polls.
“Eighteen months ago, there was a real poll during the election and every Republican won,” Rothman said. “Trump won a point and a half. Now you’re telling me that 18 months later our candidate is down 30 points?”
“This is ridiculous. These are not polls,” he continued. “They’re trying to suppress the spirit of the Republicans. That’s what these polls are used for. And they’re not real polls… I’ve been at this for a long time and ultimately the election was decided on Election Day.”
Beyond Trump and Garrity’s 2024 Republican wins Tim DeFoor, Dave McCormickAND Dave’s Sunday won their statewide races for office in Pennsylvania. Excluding judicial elections, the last Democrat to win a statewide race in Pennsylvania was Shapiro in 2022.
Rothman also told The Center Square that there had been unrest in Pennsylvania, specifically citing victories Harris Wofford defeat Dick Thornburgh in 1991 to the US Senate, Rick Santorum Wofford’s unseating in 1994, and the recent example of McCormick’s victory over a three-term U.S. senator. Bob Casey.
It wouldn’t be the first time Garrity unseated an incumbent Democrat. Her rise to statewide office in 2020 came after defeating treasurer Joe Torsella by a majority of about 53,000 votes – the first Republican to do so in nearly three decades.
During Garrity’s successful 2024 re-election bid, she broke the Pennsylvania record for most votes received in a statewide election, which was previously held by Shapiro during his 2022 gubernatorial victory.
And this time Garrity has support President Donald Trumpwho appeared with her on March 30 at the Mar-a-Lago fundraiser in Palm Beach, Florida. Calling herself a “strong ally,” Garrity touted that her campaign was one of the first endorsed by the president this year.
Although Trump won Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes over Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, recent polls show that a majority in the state disapproves of his job performance.
Democrats, including Shapiro, say the association hurts Garrity more than it helps.
“As Governor, Josh Shapiro brought people together to do something for all Pennsylvanians and protect our freedoms and our democracy,” Shapiro’s campaign said in a news release promoting upcoming events. “Whether it is investing in our schools and small businesses, supporting law enforcement and Pennsylvania farmers, expanding economic opportunity, or standing up to Donald Trump’s chaos, cruelty and corruption, Governor Shapiro is fighting for Pennsylvania families and continuing to move our Commonwealth forward.”
Rothman disagrees. He sees Trump as an asset to Garrity this November, arguing that “it’s all about turnout” and that the president is getting people to the polls.
“We need him here. We need him to come here,” Rothman told The Center Square. “We need him to talk more about Stacy and Jason.”
“We know he’s busy saving the free world and sending people back into space, but yes, I think he’ll help her,” he added.
Rothman said he “100 percent” expects Trump to campaign for the seat this year, and cited House Speaker Mike Johnson traveling to Pennsylvania this week to support Republican officials in battleground congressional districts.
“They know how important Pennsylvania is,” Rothman said. “Again, the most important state in the country.”
On Saturday, Shapiro hit the campaign trail in north-central Pennsylvania, a region that has long supported Republican candidates.
