House Speaker Mike Johnson attended a fundraiser in Mechanicsburg on Friday for U.S. Sen. Scott Perry (R-10th District), as the former Freedom Caucus chairman faces perhaps his toughest re-election challenge since taking office in 2013.
Perry’s campaign spokesman Matt Beynon did not say how much participants donated to share a meal with Johnson and Perry, but said “these are very generous voters.” He estimates that about 90 people took part.
“We have a really important Republican delegation in this state,” Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, told a group of reporters who were moved to a side room of the restaurant where the event was being held. “One of the most important members of Congress from my perspective and from the perspective of my colleagues is Scott Perry.”
Johnson’s show of support is the latest development surveys find Perry trailing his Democratic opponent, Janelle Stelson. And campaign finance records show that he does is also overrated.
“It’s a sign that Republicans are deeply concerned about this race,” said Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University. “They wouldn’t waste time, effort, money, etc. on something they didn’t care about.”
However, both Johnson and Perry rejected the unfavorable polls.
“These polls are now designed to excite opinion, not reflect it,” Perry said. “The poll that interests me and the speaker the most will take place next month,” he added, referring to the elections.
An August poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee showed Stelson leading Perry by one point, within the margin of error. But the latest poll, conducted privately and by Susquehanna Polling, showed Perry trailing Stelson by nearly 10 points, with a five-point margin of error. Stelson also had significantly higher favorability ratings than Perry, ranging from 40% to 27%. Dagnes noted that congressional polls can often be less correct than national polls because there are fewer polls and the samples tend to be smaller.
“He is who he is”
Perry’s apparent decline in support is due to a number of factors, but many local analysts have pointed to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
“It has had a lot of interest since 2020,” said Dan Mallinson, associate professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg. “His involvement in 2020 and his takedown attempt [election] the results here in Pennsylvania, all the subsequent information that came to light in the investigation into his post-election activities, the seizure of his phone by the FBI… There was just a lot of negative attention given to the candidate.”
Perry was propagator conspiracy theories alleging fraud in the 2020 election and voted against certifying the results in Pennsylvania. After January 6, the FBI began investigating him for his alleged role in organizing attempts to overturn the election results. Information from this investigation, as well as from the January 6 Congressional Committee, has been leaked for years.
During a recent debate with Stelson, Perry did not directly answer a question about whether the upcoming election would be fair, and elsewhere he stated that the Postal Service would destroy 2020 ballots.
The fundraiser with Johnson took place just days after Perry he signed the lawsuit requiring the state to impose more stringent voter identification requirements on overseas voters, including members of the military. The complaint, filed on behalf of six Pennsylvania Republican congressmen, asks the state to segregate foreign ballots until voters who returned them can verify their identities.
“He is who he is,” Mallinson said. “I don’t think he’s the type of politician who relaxes his stance in an effort to meet the moment.”
Perry, a retired Army brigadier general, said the lawsuit was intended to prevent foreign interference.
“We are trying to ensure that overseas votes for military veterans are not exploited by people in other countries, such as Iran, who have openly talked about and openly targeted hacking our electoral process to obtain overseas votes,” Perry said.
The Pennsylvania Department of State responded and accused Perry of attempting to intimidate or disenfranchise military voters.
“This lawsuit is nothing more than an attempt to confuse and intimidate people ahead of an critical election,” the State Department said in a statement. “Ballots cast by ineligible voters are extremely rare, and when they do occur, they are routinely investigated and prosecuted by the appropriate authorities.”
Asked about the possibility of military votes being rejected or diminished in connection with the lawsuit, Perry said: “If we follow the law, everything will be fine. It is unfortunate that we have to appeal to our government or demand that our government follow its laws.”
However, according to the Department of State, Pennsylvania law provides an exception to voter identification requirements for overseas voters. A federal law signed by Republican President Ronald Reagan that would give military members the ability to vote also does not require it.
“What’s interesting to me is that the parties to this lawsuit are mostly lawmakers,” Ari Mittleman, executive director of Keep Our Republic, a nonpartisan group that researches voting threats and provides civic education on voting issues. “They have been the majority for some time. This right could be examined through committee hearings or through parliamentary action.”
Asked if he would attempt to change the Citizens in Uniform and Abroad Voting Act, Perry declined.
“We have a lot of work to do,” said Perry, who serves on the House Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committee. “There are many problems across the country, and America has just been holding its breath for the past four years, hoping this nightmare would end.”
Stelson’s campaign aimed to paint Perry as an extremist and bombarded the 10th District with ads. The tactic apparently caught the attention of Republicans. Johnson attributed Perry’s decline in favor to the Stelson campaign, “carpet-bombing him with negative advertising attempting to attack the character of a man who bravely served his country for 40 years.”
In a statement to the Capital-Star, Stelson’s campaign said: “Perry voted against health care for veterans at risk of toxic burns, voted against housing for homeless veterans, and now is trying to reject the voices of the men and women who serve our country overseas. This type of extremism is exactly what is wrong with Washington, and Central Pennsylvanians are tired of it.”
A changing landscape.
Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling, noted that the demographics of the 10th District are changing.
While much of Pennsylvania is losing population, the cities of York and Cumberland County – a significant part of Perry’s district – are growing.
“The growth patterns are such that the population moving to North York and Camp Hill on the west coast in Cumberland County is, in my opinion, moderate,” Lee said. “I don’t think they are ruby red republicans on social issues.”
The political landscape regarding social issues has also changed, especially since Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Dobbs decision in 2022.
During a recent debate with Stelson, Perry dodged the question of whether he would continue to support a nationwide abortion ban.
“I oppose taxpayer-funded abortions, but I make exceptions for rape, incest and maternal life, and that has never changed,” Perry said.
But Perry isn’t the only Republican hurting in the 10th District. The Susquehanna poll also showed Trump trailing Harris by four points, which is within the poll’s margin of error.
In 2020, Lee beat Biden by four points in the district. Information collected by Daily Kos shows similar results.
“If Trump can’t win the 10th Congress, how will he win the state?” Lee said. “He needs to at least match his 2020 performance, and if not, then do a little better if he is to offset the shelling he will face in the southeast.”
Ultimately, however, Lee, like Mallinson, believes Perry’s political fortunes could rise or fall depending on his own decisions.
“I think he’s being true to himself,” Lee said.
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