The number of GOP registrations in the Commonwealth continues to grow

If you’re trying to read the tea leaves for clues about how the 2024 presidential election will go in the Commonwealth, you could do worse than looking through voter rolls.

PoliticsPA analyzed the latest voter registration data from the Department of State and, based on numbers alone, Republicans continue to chip away at Democrats’ numerical advantage, and these attacks reinforce Pennsylvania’s recent slogan, “The Swingiest of Swing States.”

Since the end of March, the Republican Party has gained an additional 10,152 recent subscribers, while Democrats have lost almost 4,600. Just over 18,000 Democrats have chosen to change their party affiliation from D to R, and an additional 11,000 have left either party.

In Philadelphia, nearly 2,000 voters defected from the Democratic Party in the first 4 1/2 months of 2024, while the GOP lost just 366. In Allegheny County, just over 400 voters chose to defect from the Republican Party, while Democrats lost more than twice as many ( 922)

Republicans saw 5,800 former party members switch to Democratic registration and another 8,100 quit either party.

Only smaller counties in the Commonwealth saw more Republicans than Democrats change positions, including Bedford (-13), Butler and Mifflin (-9), Huntingdon (-8) and Bradford (-7).

The map below shows each of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties with registered parties for both major parties and those not affiliated with a political party.

Highest percentage of Republicans (by county)

1. Fulton, 73.7
2. Bedford, 73.1
3. Potter, 71.9
4. Juniata, 69.9
5. Mifflin, 68.2
6. Jefferson, 67.8
7. Snyder, 67.2
8. Perry, 67.1
9. Tioga, 66.9
10. Huntington, 66.5

Highest percentage of Democrats (by county)

1. Philadelphia, 74.8
2. Allegheny, 56.3
3. Lackawanny, 54.2
4. Montgomery, 50.0
5. Delaware, 49.9
6. Erie, 45.9
7. Lehigh, 45.7
8. Dolphin, 44.5
9. Monroe, 43.9
10. Lucerne, 43.9

Highest percentage of non-affiliation (by county)

1. Pike, 16.3
2. Lehigh, 16.0
3. Monroe, 15.2
4. Northampton, 14.9
5. York, 14/1
6. Center, 13.8
7. Wayne, 13.3
8. Chester, 13/0
9. Dolphin, 12.7
10. Cumberland, 12.6

Swing Counties (difference between parties by county)

1. Beaver (926, GOP favor)
2. Cameron (1092 GOP)
3. Forest (1121, GOP)
4. Center (1226, Democrats)
5. Sullivan (1530, GOP)
6. Bucks (1946, Democrats)
7. Montour (2568, GOP)
8. Lucerne (2,954, Democrats)
9. Greene (3031, GOP)
10. Berki (3518, GOP)