Violent and property crimes in the United States declined in 2023, continuing a downward trend after higher crime rates during the pandemic, according to the FBI’s latest National Crime Report 2023 report.
The number of murders and intentional homicides, known as negligent homicides, decreased by 11.6% compared to 2022. The number of property crimes decreased by 2.4%.
Overall, FBI data shows violent crimes are down 3%.
Violent crime has become a major issue in the 2024 presidential race, with former President Donald Trump saying that crime was “spreading through the roof” under Biden.
During the campaign, Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, cited findings from another source – a national crime victimization survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics – to show that crime was out of control.
Although the FBI data only covers crimes reported to police, the victimization survey is based on interviews conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and includes both reported and unreported crimes. Callers are asked whether they have reported the crime to the police. However, the survey does not include murder data and only tracks crimes committed against people aged 12 and older.
Victimization questionnairereleased in mid-September shows that the violent crime victimization rate increased from 16.4 per 1,000 people in 2020 to 22.5 per 1,000 in 2023. The report also notes that the rate in 2023 is statistically similar to the rate from 2019, when Trump was in office.
Many crime data experts consider both sources to be reliable. However, agencies track different trends, measure crime differently, and collect data over different time frames. Unlike the victimization study, the FBI’s data relies largely on distress calls or police reports. Still, most crimes go unreported, meaning FBI data is neither completely correct nor complete.
Victimization studies published during the height of the pandemic were particularly arduous to conduct, which is a key reason why some experts say the FBI and the study may show different trends.
As a result, these differences, often unknown or misunderstood, make it straightforward for anyone – including politicians – to manipulate the findings to support their agendas.
National, state and local political candidates on both sides of the aisle have used crime statistics in their campaigns this year, with some taking credit for promising trends and others using various numbers to bash their opponents. However, it is arduous to draw definitive conclusions about crime trends or attribute them to specific policies.
“There is never one reason why crime trends move one way or another,” said Ames Grawert, a crime data expert and senior adviser to the Brennan Center for Justice’s criminal justice program. The Brennan Center is a left-leaning law and policy group.
“When there is an answer that may make intuitive sense or may be based on certain political beliefs, it is all too natural to move to that answer. The problem is, that’s not how crime works,” Grawert told Stateline.
At an August rally in Philadelphia, Democratic vice presidential candidate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, he said: “Violent crimes have increased under Donald Trump. That doesn’t even count the crimes he committed.”
During Trump’s first three years in office, the violent crime rate per 100,000 people actually declined each year, from 376.5 in 2017, 370.8 in 2018 and 364.4 in 2019, according to the FBI.
It wasn’t until 2020 that the rate rose to 386.3, the highest level under Trump, when the country saw its largest annual augment in murders.
We live in a world of sound bites and people don’t take the time to digest information and check facts. The burden is on the voter.
– Alex Piquero, former director of the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics
Walz’s comments ignored the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the social upheaval following the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer in 2020. Despite the augment this year, the violent crime rate in the final year of Trump’s presidency remained slightly lower than in the last year of the administration President Barack Obama. In 2016, this rate was 386.8 per 100,000. inhabitants.
Following the release of the FBI’s annual crime report last month, Republican Dan Bishop, candidate for North Carolina attorney general, common and later deleted a retweet on X that falsely claimed that FBI data showed zero homicides in Los Angeles and New Orleans last year. In fact, FBI data showed that the Los Angeles Police Department reported 325 homicides while the New Orleans Police Department reported 198 in 2023.
Voters are worried
Crime has become a major issue in voters’ minds.
AND questionnaire conducted in March found that nearly 80% of Americans are “very much” or “quite a bit” concerned about crime and violence, ranking it above issues such as the economy and illegal immigration. In another questionnaire In a survey conducted overdue last year, 63% of respondents rated crime in the U.S. as extremely or very earnest, the highest percentage since Gallup began asking this question in 2000.
Crime data is typically delayed by at least a year, depending on the agency or organization collecting and analyzing the statistics. But some experts in crime and voter behavior say the lack of correct, real-time crime data from official sources such as federal or state agencies could leave some voters vulnerable to political manipulation.
There are at least three trackers that collect and analyze national and local crime data that aim to fill the gap in real-time reporting. Developed by Criminal Justice Councildata consulting firm AH Datalytics AND NORC at the University of Chicagoall of these trackers show a similar downward trend in crime rates.
Trump continues to demonize immigrants in Ohio while the national Republican Party judges Latino votes
“We live in a world of sound bites, and people don’t take the time to digest information and check facts,” said Alex Piquero, a criminology professor at the University of Miami and former director of the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics. interview for Stateline. “The burden is on the voter.”
Crime trends and reductions
In 2020, as shutdowns during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic forced people to stay home, homicides rose by nearly 30%, the largest augment in a single year since the FBI began tracking crime.
Violent crimes dropped to near pre-pandemic levels in 2022, and FBI data showed a further decline last year. The violent crime rate dropped from about 377 incidents per 100,000 people in 2022 to about 364 per 100,000 in 2023, slightly below the 2019 rate.
The largest cities with at least 1 million inhabitants saw the largest declines in violent crime – almost 7% – while cities with populations of 250,000 to 500,000 saw a slight augment of 0.3%.
Rape cases dropped by over 9% and aggravated assaults by almost 3%. The number of burglaries and thefts decreased by 8% and 4% respectively.
However, the number of motor vehicle thefts increased by 12% in 2023 compared to 2022, representing the highest rate of car theft since 2007 – 319 thefts per 100,000 people.
While national data shows overall significant declines in crime across the country, some crime data experts caution that this may not necessarily be the case for individual cities and neighborhoods.
“Looking at national trends can be quite simplistic. You also need to allow space for nuance and context of what’s happening at the local level,” said the Brennan Center’s Grawert.
Some crime experts and politicians criticized the latest FBI report, noting that not all law enforcement agencies provided their crime statistics.
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The FBI is transitioning participating agencies to a novel reporting system called the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). The FBI ordered the transition process that began in the overdue 1980s to be completed by 2021. This requirement resulted in a significant decline in the agency’s participation in preparing the report for that year as some law enforcement agencies were unable to meet the deadline.
In 2022, the FBI relaxed this requirement, allowing agencies to employ both novel and legacy reporting systems. Since the 2021 mandate, more law enforcement agencies have transitioned to the novel reporting system.
Reporting crime data to the FBI is voluntary, and some departments may only report a few months of data.
Although the latest FBI report covers 94% of the U.S. population, according to a Stateline analysis of participation in the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program, only 73% of all law enforcement agencies participated using any reporting system. This means that 5,926 agencies, or 27%, reported no data to the FBI.
According to some crime data experts, most of the missing agencies are likely smaller, rural departments that are not participating in the study due to circumscribed resources and staff.
However, over time, FBI participation in the crime reporting program has continued to augment, especially after failing in 2021. Many law enforcement agencies in the nation’s largest cities reported data for 2023, and every city agency serving at least 1 million residents reported. The FBI report found that the data covers the entire year.
state line is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. If you have any questions, please contact editor Scott S. Greenberger: [email protected]. Keep following Stateline Facebook AND X.
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