Susan Wild, Ryan Mackenzie Run Neck and Neck in 7th Congressional District

EASTON, Pa. — A semi truck idled at an intersection last week, the seven Trump flags attached to its bed fluttering and rustling in the delayed summer breeze.

As if searching for an inaugural parade to lead, the driver eventually slowly drove the truck past countless “Trump 2024” signs on lawns around the block.

Few, if any, posters announced the candidacy of Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild or her opponent, Republican state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, for Wild’s seat in the Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District.

“Who’s running for Congress again?” Star Pagan, 35, asked outside the Golden Gate Diner in Allentown before breakfast Tuesday. She’s a hairdresser and babysitter in the city, the Valley’s most populous, with 125,000 residents. “I usually just follow the presidential candidates.”

Tyler Pacchioli, a 23-year-old substitute teacher in Easton, was similarly bewildered. “I’m not up on any congressional races,” he said as he ran out of a Starbucks. “But I’ll probably just vote Democratic. That’s what I usually do.”

Ignoring any political wrangling beyond the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, few people interviewed last week in Allentown, Easton and Bethlehem could name the congressional candidates in their districts.

The Lehigh Valley is politically divided and has long been a key battleground in presidential elections — Northampton County is one of two counties in the state that carried former President Barack Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020.

But the stakes are extremely high in this competitive, nationally significant race that could facilitate decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the next two years.

Wild is a centrist Democrat who has served three terms in office. incumbent candidate who won the 2022 election by 2 percentage points and whose platform is based on support for reproductive and workers’ rights.

Mackenzie, a right-wing Republican who represents parts of Lehigh County in Harrisburg and who asked Congress do not certify 2020 presidential election results underscore dissatisfaction with inflation and US-Mexico troubles limit.

“This is definitely one of the most important races in the country,” said Stephen Medvic, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College. “And where it stands now is a coin toss.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee considers Wild’s seat “sensitive.” The national Republican Congressional Campaign Committee considers it one of 37 seats nationwide where Republicans are aiming to reverse.

Lehigh Valley Connections

Once upon a time, the Lehigh Valley was Pennsylvania’s steel basin, and its legacy is evident in the fossilized giants that were once the economy’s steel mills that still dot the region.

The 7th Congressional District covers Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties, as well as a tiny portion of southwestern Monroe County.

In explaining their backgrounds during the campaign, both candidates emphasized their powerful ties to the Lehigh Valley.

Wild, 67, grew up abroaddaughter of a journalist and a career Air Force officer, she settled in the Lehigh Valley 30 years ago and was first elected to Congress in 2018. She lives in South Whitehall Township, Lehigh County.

Mackenzie, 42, follows her lineage in the region nine generations ago, to when his ancestors joined the Northampton County militia to fight in the Revolutionary War. He was elected to the Pennsylvania House of Representatives in 2012 and lives in Lower Macungie Parish in Lehigh County.

In 2022, “it was a landslide victory for the Wild campaign,” according to Chris Borick, a political science professor and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. Wild is also an advocate for mental health and has publicly spoken of the loss of her longtime partner to suicide in May 2019 as an impetus for her suicide prevention advocacy.

In other matters, Wild has sided with Biden on lowering prescription drug prices, expanding Medicare, supporting jobs and education, and addressing the climate crisis. She has introduced a bill codify the law on in vitro fertilization all over the country. She was also reportedly one of the first members of Congress to suggest in private meetings of Democrats that Biden withdraw presidential race after a impoverished performance against Trump in a debate in June.

For Mackenziewho has an MBA from Harvard Business School, wasteful government spending was a major concern, as was “crippling” inflation, as well as border security. He considers himself “bipartisan and mainstream” because he has reached out to bipartisan efforts to support first responders and improve health care, according to Arnaud Armstrong, communications director for Mackenzie campaign.

At rally, Mackenzie ’causes Wild to be a radical leftist’ for supporting Biden’s Agendathough she is a proven centrist, Borick said. Besides, he added, “in the Lehigh Valley, it is difficult for a candidate to go hard left and survive.”

It is Mackenzie who is the real “extreme, cookie-cutter candidate,” according to Natalie Gould, Wild’s communications director. “He rejected the results of the 2020 election and told Pennsylvania, not certify these elections.

Armstrong criticized Wild for belittling her own voters, saying in an undated conference call that she was “appalled” that red Carbon County, home to people who “drank the Trump Kool-Aid,” was added to her district after the 2020 census. Wild he apologized in February for these comments.

Big Expenses and Fundraising Advantage for Wild

In her victory over Republican Lisa Scheller in 2022, Wild won Northampton County by a vote of 51.5% to 48.5% and Lehigh County by a vote of 54.2% to 45.8%. She lost significantly to Republican Carbon County by a vote of 64.7% to 35.3%, and lost the Republican primary by a vote of 2 to 1.–in the tiny slice of Monroe County that is part of her district, 66.8% to 33.2%.

This time the fight may be even more equal, which is why both sides are financing the campaign financially.

Wild organized a fundraiser edge, earning $1.53 million between April 4 and June 30. Mackenzie raised $405,000 during the same period. In 2022, Democrats and Republicans combined to spend $34.5 million on the Wild-Scheller route, which makes it one of the most pricey in the country this year.

“Wild was a very strong fundraiser,” Borick said. “And while Mackenzie’s funding is not as strong as hers, he is a seasoned candidate who receives strong support from the Republican Party.

“Everything indicates that this will be a hard-fought race.”

Ultimately, said Franklin and Marshall polling expert Berwood Yost, to win, Wild needs to “at every opportunity to link Mackenzie to Trump and express her displeasure with him.”

For Mackenzie, the key to winning is “continually highlighting people’s dissatisfaction with the economy.”

According to Yost, this approach grabs the attention of voters — “even if they’re not sure who the candidate is.”