By Harrison Cann
The nation’s eyes are on the high-profile and risky Commonwealth races for U.S. Senate, House of Representatives and Governor, but majority rule in Washington and the executive mansion aren’t the only things up for grabs in this year’s general election.
Republicans have held majorities in both houses of the General Assembly since 2011. Democrats previously held a narrow majority in the House from 2007–2010. With both parties vying for power in Harrisburg, several races could have a major impact on the makeup of the Legislature and its relationship with the novel governor.
Currently, the GOP holds 28 of 50 seats in the Senate – with 21 Democrats and one independent – ​​while in the House, Republicans hold 113 of 203 seats. With Democrats aiming to flip at least one house in November, the party has a lot of work ahead of it. Democrats would need to flip at least four Senate seats or 12 House seats to gain a majority in either chamber. Of the Senate races listed below, Democrats would need to hold on to the 38th District and flip the remaining four seats to have a chance at a majority.
With that in mind, City & State highlighted several close races that could decide the fate of the General Assembly in 2023. And while the ramifications of each race won’t be fully known until all votes are counted in November, the results will give us a first look at how novel district lines in the Community will affect its political structure.
Below you’ll find some of this year’s Senate races:
Senate races:
6th Senate District: Frank Farry (Republican) vs. Ann Marie Mitchell (Democrat)
Voter spread by Dave’s redistricting: +2.9
Ann Marie Mitchell, a former candidate for state representative, is competing against current state representative Frank Farry in the race to replace retiring state senator Robert “Tommy” Tomlinson. Farry, a Republican representing the 142nd legislative district in Bucks County, is trying to move to the state Senate in a novel district with slight Democratic leanings. Mitchell holds a bachelor’s degree and a law degree from the University of Pennsylvania and is a business lawyer.
14th Senate District: Dean Browning (Republican) vs. Nick Miller (Democrat)
Spread: Dem +11.1
A hotly contested Lehigh Valley primary ended with Dean Browning, a former Lehigh County commissioner, as the Republican nominee and Nick Miller, an Allentown School Board member, as the Democratic nominee. Browning, who is white, gained national attention in 2020 when he tweeted “I am a gay black man” and said he was quoting a message from one of his followers. Miller won a close victory over Tara Zrinski in a primary that included a court battle over the counting of naked and late-arriving ballots.
The 14th Senate District previously included all of Carbon County and parts of Luzerne County. Following redistricting, the novel boundaries include many municipalities in Lehigh and Northampton counties and most of Allentown. If Browning manages to win, the much more Democratic district would be a signal victory for Republicans.
16th Senate District: Jarrett Coleman (Republican) vs. Mark Pinsley (Democrat)
Spread: GOP +7.4
Other closely watched primary elections that ended in court decisions included Jarrett Coleman and longtime state Sen. Patrick Browne. Coleman, an airline pilot and Parkland School Board member, surprised many when he upset Browne — and he has his work cut out for him if he wants to take Browne’s seat in Harrisburg.
Coleman, a Republican who has been a vocal opponent of school closures and vaccine mandates, is running against Democrat Mark Pinsley. Pinsley, the Lehigh County controller, faced criticism earlier this year after he testified before the Legislative Reapportionment Committee, claiming the GOP wanted to create a “ghetto” by lumping Allentown and Bethlehem together.
The novel district lines, which include parts of Bucks County, may have helped Coleman overtake Browne because many areas of the district are still dominated by Republicans. Pinsley, who narrowly lost to Browne in 2018, will try to become the first Democrat elected from the district since 1994.
38th Senate District: Lori Mizgorski (Republican) v. Lindsey Williams (Democrat)
Spread: Dem +13.0
(*5*)
Two incumbent lawmakers are competing in the 38th Senate District race. State Rep. Lori Mizgorski, who was drawn into a Democratic-heavy House district, has decided to enter the Senate race against incumbent Lindsey Williams rather than seek re-election. Mizgorski, a Republican from Shaler, defeated public defender Jake Roberts in the primary.
In November, Mizgorski has the hard task of defeating the Democratic incumbent in Williams. Although Williams narrowly won the seat in 2018, the district that includes the North Hills suburbs, Allegheny River towns and Pittsburgh’s East End neighborhoods is considered more Democratic-friendly in this runoff.
40th Senate District: Rosemary Brown (Republican) v. Jenn Shukaitis (Democrat)
Spread: Dem +3.7
Another Republican lawmaker trying to get into the state Senate is state Republican Rosemary Brown of the 40th District. Brown, who currently represents the 189th Legislative District in parts of Monroe and Pike counties, wants to keep the seat of outgoing state Sen. Mario Scavello in Republican hands. She will face Democrat and Stroud County Supervisor Jennifer Shukaitis. Shukaitis, the granddaughter of former Monroe County Commissioner Nancy Shukaitis, will now try to win a slightly Democratic district consisting of all of Monroe County and parts of Lackawanna and Wayne counties.
Harrison Cann is a reporter for City & State Pa., where this story first appeared.
