The growth of Asian, black and Latino communities is changing cities and suburban counties, especially in Republican states like Florida, Indiana and Texas, according to a novel analysis from Stateline. The presidential swing states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania were also among the fastest-changing states.
Nationally, the share of the nonwhite population increased in 47 states between mid-2020 and mid-2023, according to a U.S. Census Bureau analysis. estimates released in June.
Nevada saw the biggest change, with its nonwhite — mostly Latino — population growing 2.3 percentage points to 54.3% of the population. The enhance in black residents pushed Georgia to a near nonwhite majority, rising about 1 point to 49.9% of the state’s population, amid an ongoing black migration that helped swing the state’s 2020 presidential and U.S. Senate elections to Democrats.
The growth of the Latino population was a dominant factor in all states, in blue and red counties and in rural and urban areas, according to the Stateline analysis. The growth of the Latino population is due in part to immigration, but mostly to higher birth rates, the Census Bureau found in release.
Only three states — Montana, South Carolina and Tennessee — and the District of Columbia saw their white population percentage enhance since 2020.
The growth of Latino and black residents — and where it’s happening — could affect the 2024 presidential election and local and state elections, although the political leanings of those groups have shifted recently. Black voters have long been considered the most enthusiastic supporters of Democrats, but their support has fallen somewhat. And Republicans are gaining ground among Latino voters.
Many of the biggest changes have come from the migration of blacks and Asians to cities and suburbs in job-rich red states. The economy is booming by almost every national measure, and the availability of jobs outside the substantial cities has become a significant draw.
That includes Marion County, Indiana, home to Indianapolis, and Kaufman County, Texas, a suburb of Dallas, where a surge in the black population helped create novel nonwhite majorities in mid-2023. In Kaufman County, the black population grew by 6 percentage points to 23%, and the Latino population grew by 3 percentage points to 28%. Kaufman County chosen in 2020, he became the first black district judge.
“We have jobs here, and all of these counties are growing dramatically,” said Lloyd Potter, Texas state demographer. Asian, black and Latino residents are moving to the suburbs from Dallas, he said, as well as from California and New York state. Meanwhile, local white populations are aging and shrinking, with more deaths and fewer births.
“These are some of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the country, and [the new census data] indicates a huge diversification of the population. It’s been happening for a while, but it seems to have really accelerated in the last five years,” Potter said.
New Foods, Same Politics
Kaufman County’s growing black community remains a minority in a county that voted two-thirds Republican in 2020 and for governor in 2022. The county commission held hearings on moving a Confederate monument away from the entrance to the county courthouse in 2021 but ultimately decided to take no action.
“It’s very red here. It’s super red,” said James Henderson, a longtime county resident who advocated for the monument’s relocation. He said he sees more African Americans like himself moving to Kaufman County towns like Forney and working remotely for Dallas-based companies. There are also more African immigrants, he said.
It is an open question whether increased racial diversity will lead to political change. The migration of blacks to the Atlanta, Georgia area has had an impact on elections in 2018 and possibly 2020but Republicans still control the states and Texas.
The economy, inflation and health care are top concerns for Latino voters in Pennsylvania.
The younger population is becoming more diverse, said demographer William Frey of the left-leaning Brookings Institution think tank. But the older population, which is growing with the age of baby boomers and is most likely to vote, is still mostly white, he said.
Growth in the Asian population in Collin County, another Dallas suburb, and growth in the Latino population in Duval County, Florida (home to Jacksonville) also contributed to the fact that as of 2020, those huge counties had a majority nonwhite population.
Many of Collin County’s novel residents are Telugu-speaking tech workers from southern India who have found an economic niche working remotely for Dallas companies, said Farhad Wadia, president of FunAsia-brand radio stations in the area. Their presence is bringing subtle changes to the community, he noted.
New transplants often require complicated procedures Hindu Housewarming Ceremonies which involves boiling milk until it overflows to signify prosperity. Shops cater to their tastes with peppery tamarind-based curries and sun-dried chilies.
“If you go to Costco here, you’ll think you’re in South India,” Wadia said. “A lot of them come from California, where they could sell their 1,000-square-foot house for a million dollars and get more for their money here.”
Growing diversity
Of the 16 counties that became majority nonwhite between 2020 and 2023, five were in Texas. A majority of the 16 counties voted Republican in 2020.
These included two counties each in California (Napa and Yuba counties, both near Sacramento) and New Mexico (rural Quay and Roosevelt counties), and one each in Alabama (rural Conecuh County), Kansas (rural Stanton County), Mississippi (Lowndes County, along the Alabama border), New Jersey (suburban Somerset County), and South Carolina (Florence County, near Myrtle Beach).
In Georgia, Henry County, a suburb of Atlanta, saw the biggest change of any county outside of Texas, with the growth of the black population driving a 7-point enhance in the nonwhite population to 69%. The county was majority black in 2020; retired basketball star Shaquille O’Neal, who bought a home in the county in 2016, helps the local sheriff’s office with community relations and recently organized summer sports camp for youth.
The growth of the Hispanic population also increased the share of nonwhites in key presidential battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In 2022, Pennsylvania’s Latino voters supported Democratic candidates for statewide office, with Josh Shapiro winning 72% of the Latino vote for governor that year and John Fetterman winning 68% of the Latino vote for the U.S. Senate. In 2024, 21% of Latinos in Pennsylvania will vote in their first presidential election.
According to UnidosUS Latino Voter Data CenterThere are 275,000 registered Latino voters in Pennsylvania.
In Liberty County, Texas, where the growth of Latino enrollment has created a novel nonwhite majority of 52% — an enhance of 7 percentage points since 2020 — schools are bursting at the seams with novel Latino students, said Stephen McCanless, superintendent of the Cleveland Independent School District in Liberty County.
The district, where about 88% of its students are Latino, grew from about 10,000 to 12,000 students last school year and could reach 14,000 next year, he added.
The district has spent more than $17 million on portable classrooms since development began in 2015, including $2 million last year because it rejected a bond issue to build more schools.
“I had to make some tough decisions. I cut $7 million from my budget to get started [next] “We didn’t draw on the savings fund very much during the school year,” McCanless said.
The Capital-Star team took part in the project.
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