Playbook 2/9: PA GOP is eyeing a big upset

📖 Today’s PolitykiPA Guide. Why Pennsylvania Republicans think they can pull off a major upset in 2026. PA-03: Congressional Forum scheduled for tonight. Are Pennsylvania Republicans ready for legal weed this year? The most memorable Super Bowl commercials.

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🔈 What we hear. “Four seats. That will be a majority in the US House of Representatives. We can take the hammers in our own hands and we can make Trump an even dumber duck than he already is, and we can move forward with impeachments, convictions, whatever we can do.” Representative Madeleine Dean

📅 What’s happening today. The PA-03 Congress Forum starts at 7:00 p.m. at the Holy Trinity Church in Philadelphia. You can watch it live on PCN-TV.

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The most crucial story

1. Why Pennsylvania Republicans think they can pull off a major upset in 2026

“Governor Josh Shapiro is the odds-on favorite to win Pennsylvania’s 2026 governor’s race.

Don’t take this author’s word for it.

This is said both by people who make a living judging political races and by people who try to make money by predicting the future. | PennLive

Elsewhere

Shapiro, Garrity divided on spending in spotlight amid renewed AP budget battle. “Governor Josh Shapiro’s proposed $53 billion spending plan for 2026-2027 shows that neither he nor Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity is shying away from an election-year budget fight.” | Pittsburgh Postal Newspaper

The Republican Party and state Democrats are finalizing their endorsements for the 2026 governor’s race. “The Pennsylvania Republican and Democratic Parties expressed support for the 2026 gubernatorial race Saturday during dueling committee hearings at the state capitol, laying out differing visions for the future of Pennsylvania and America.” | Questioner from Philadelphia

Shapiro condemns Trump’s post containing ‘racist’ video. “Speaking in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro condemned President Donald Trump for releasing a video depicting former President Barack Obama and his wife Michelle as apes.” | PoliticsPA

Fetterman “definitely” expects a partial outage. “Democratic Sen. John Fetterman, a key moderate who has occasionally crossed the aisle to vote with Republicans, said he expected another partial government shutdown in the coming days after disagreements over Department of Homeland Security reforms.” | known

Country

2. PA-03: Congress Forum scheduled for tonight

“The leading candidates for the 3rd Congressional District seat, currently held by retiring Rep. Dwight Evans, will meet for a forum on Monday, February 9, at Trinity Church in Rittenhouse Square in Philadelphia.

Six Democrats and one Republican were invited to attend the event based on current fundraising numbers: Democratic State Sen. Sharif Street, State Representative Chris Rabb, Country Morgan Cephas Representative, Dr. Dave Oxman, Dr. Ala Stanford, AND Pablo McConnie-Saadalong with the Republican Alex Quick” | PoliticsPA

Elsewhere

Fourth-quarter takeaway: Fitzpatrick has millions more on hand than other congressional candidates in Pennsylvania. “As the most closely contested U.S. House races to come this year in Pennsylvania, national ratings agencies see fundraising efforts in the spotlight in races that could determine which party has the majority next year.” | Penn Capital Star

PA-07: Who is financing the congressional race in the Lehigh Valley? Where does the candidates’ money come from and how is it spent?. “U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie and the crowded field of Democrats vying to replace him in Congress have drawn their contributions from local CEOs, major political action committees and other high-profile figures.” | Morning talk in Allentown

Bloomberg is betting on Pennsylvania’s Shapiro. “It’s not an endorsement of the president – yet – but billionaire Democratic megadonor Michael Bloomberg is sticking his finger into Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s re-election campaign.” | Axles

Sen. John Fetterman’s PAC members are getting assist from major GOP donors as other fundraising declines. “Ed Glazer, the billionaire owner of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has cut more than a few hefty checks from politicians in recent years.” | Pittsburgh Postal Newspaper

Around the Republic of Poland

3. Are PA Republicans ready for legal weed this year? Supporters are skeptical

“Legalization of recreational marijuana in Pennsylvania continues to face a ‘very divided’ Republican caucus, a major hurdle as Democrats Governor Josh Shapiro reiterates its call on the state to take action.

Legal marijuana advocates remain hopeful that the need for more revenue to cover rising state expenses and election-year pressures will force lawmakers to address the issue head-on this year. But they are also (not) sure about the likelihood of the legislator taking action, with forecasts ranging from cautious optimism to deep skepticism.” | PA reflector

Elsewhere

John Fetterman asks DHS to stop expanding ICE detention centers in Pennsylvania, saying they will be a burden on local communities. “Fetterman’s criticism comes shortly after DHS purchased an $87 million warehouse in Bern Township, Berks County, and the former Big Lots distribution center in Tremont Township, Schuylkill County, for nearly $120 million.” | Questioner from Philadelphia

The number of independent and third-party voters in PA is growing despite being excluded from the primaries. “There’s really nothing that fits me and my views,” said Kathryn Malinowski, 40. “I think both parties are so extreme on both sides and… that our current system is broken and exploited by people who only care about themselves and not the people who elected them.” | LNP

The former governor and former federal judge is critical of Trump’s campaign gambit. “At a time when President Donald Trump has called on the federal government to ‘nationalize’ the election, two former high-ranking Pennsylvania officials, former Gov. Tom Corbett and former U.S. District Court Judge John Jones III, have spoken out.” | Penn Capital Star

Last year, Parker’s campaign raised a staggering $1.7 million, although she won’t be eligible for re-election until 2027. “Mayor Cherelle L. Parker’s massive off-year fundraising reflects the increasingly steady and professional world of political fundraising in Philadelphia.” | Questioner from Philadelphia

Editorial

4. What do you think about it?

• Trump’s post about the racist truth about the Obamas is intended to humiliate us all | Solomon Jones
• Local government looks like Donald Trump for president | Bruce Ledewitz
• We need to protect juvenile people in Pennsylvania from chatbots | Pittsburgh Postal Newspaper
• Removing DHS from Lehigh County Properties Is a Hasty Mistake | Rob Beitler
• Money for MAHA | Paweł Offit
• Europe holds its Epsteins accountable. Why can’t we? | Will Bunch

1 item

5. The most memorable Super Bowl 2026 ads

“Seahawks The Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl trophy this year, but not everyone tuned in to watch the game. Some people watched the event this year solely for the commercials.

In between all the action, the companies released some of the most imaginative ads of the year to reach the game’s massive audience. Last year’s game broke records with over 127 million viewers, giving advertisers even more reason to get people excited with their ads.

Check out some of the most memorable ads for the Big Game. | Peasant!

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