As Philadelphians waited in long lines to vote on Tuesday, Democratic Party officials indicated that the apparent enthusiasm for voting was a good sign for their candidates.
“Voter turnout is extremely high” – Bob Brady, city party chairman, he told reporters. “I have been voting for 50 years and have been chairman for 40 years and this is the highest we have ever seen at this point. The high turnout is great for us.”
“Everywhere I went there were lines” – Mayor Cherelle L. Parker he told the Inquirer.
“Kind of an unusually high turnout to start the day, especially here in Philadelphia,” Gov. Josh Shapiro said.
As it turns out, not only were hopes for Democratic victories in vain, but so did observations that Philadelphians were eager to vote.
City commissioners reported Wednesday that turnout was only 62.9%, with a miniature number of votes remaining to be counted. About 703,000 of the city’s 1.12 million registered voters went to the polls or mailed absentee ballots.
That’s 46,000 fewer than in 2020, during the pandemic, when 66% of registered Philadelphians voted. This is also less than during Donald Trump’s previous victory in 2016, when 64% participated – by about 31,000. more than this year.
Kamala Harris received just shy of 548,000 votes in Philadelphia compared to the 604,000 that Joe Biden received four years ago.
This year’s turnout figures will change as some outstanding votes are counted. Commissioners still have to process provisional ballots, which made up 2% of the vote in 2020, and have not yet released a detailed breakdown of the data that will shed more featherlight on who voted.
But the numbers available so far show that when it comes to voting, Philadelphia appears to be out of sync with the rest of Pennsylvania — where turnout was relatively close to 2020 numbers — or with the U.S. as a whole.
Apathy, disgust towards advertisements and indigent candidates
There was a turnout in Philadelphia decline over many decadesprobably due to factors such as changing media environment and the withering importance of district leaders, who in previous generations both helped residents access city services and organized them to vote.
But concerns about a modern and deeper decline intensified after last May’s primary, in which fewer than 18% of registered voters turned out, compared with 32% in the 2020 primary and 40% in 2016.
Heading into November’s general election, “we expected turnout to be lower than in 2020, or at least similar,” said Lauren Cristella, president of the Philadelphia-based good government group Committee of the Seventy.
“I didn’t think we would have record turnout just because of the closeness of the polls, the number of undecided voters who maybe decided to just stay home, and then the apathy that we heard from different demographic groups around the world. city,” she said. “We were concerned about younger voters and Latino voters, among other things.”
The low turnout may partly reflect a growing distaste for the generally combative politics of the era, especially during a key swing period when voters were bombarded with constant television and online ads, text messages, phone calls and surveys.
At Muhlenberg College health examination spring, 43% of Pennsylvanians surveyed said politics and current events were the “major source of stress in their lives” – far more than issues such as personal finances and work.
“People were disgusted by the ads and completely moved away from the topic,” Cristella said. “I don’t know if people are mad about any of their choices, there’s just a general negative feeling about the government, what it can do and why voting matters.”
A possible factor is the decline in postal voting
However, elsewhere in Pennsylvania and the United States, turnout was relatively high despite widespread anti-political sentiment. Statewide, 68.8% of registered voters cast ballots in the November 5 election, according to A. preliminary analysis by the Washington Post. This is only 1% less than four years earlier.
Nationwide, turnout was 65% this week, slightly lower than 2020 but the second highest since the 1950s.
AND many reasons have been suggested as a reason for Philadelphia’s recent downward trend. These include a calcified political culture run by a Democratic machine that preemptively picks the winners of local races, aging political leaders who are hostile to progressives and newcomers, faint get-out-the-vote efforts by local, state and national campaigns, and a concentration of residents of color with lower incomes who tend to be less politically engaged.
Cristella also pointed to a decline in the operate of absentee ballots in the city as a possible factor this year.
For example, she said it appears fewer students have requested absentee ballots, although that is unclear pending the release of more detailed data. She also said many people probably didn’t return their ballots on time or didn’t return them at all. Ballots had to reach the Electoral Commission office by 8 p.m. on Tuesday, and postmarks did not count.
Mail-in voting rates in Philadelphia had already declined between 2020, when concerns about the Covid-19 pandemic kept many people from going to the polls, and 2022, when the end of the pandemic appeared to fuel renewed enthusiasm for in-person voting.
This week’s City Commissioner’s data shows continued change. Just over 505,000 voters went to the polls this week – which may aid explain long lines at polling stations – and only about 172,000 voted by mail. According to Department of State data as of Tuesday evening, only 78% of Philadelphians who requested absentee ballots actually mailed them, compared with 86% for statewide requesters.
By comparison, in the 2020 general election, the two voting modes were almost evenly balanced. Approximately 375,000 ballots (including 15,000 provisional ballots) were cast at Philadelphia polling places, and 374,000 were cast by mail.
Cristella noted that thousands of Philadelphia absentee ballots also go uncounted in every presidential election because people make mistakes when sealing them or there are problems getting them to voters.
She called on Pennsylvania to implement in-person early voting, where people can go to election offices in slow October for a few weeks and cast a ballot by machine, as is done in Delaware, New Jersey and other states. This could encourage voters by providing them with an additional option and result in fewer ballots that cannot be counted.
“We really should push for early machine voting,” she said. “Because machines don’t make mistakes, right? You have a chance to repair them, check them and so on.
