Good morning Monday, dear seekers.
Republican candidates for the US Senate David McCormick AND Mehmet Oz We began a weekend collection of all votes, which gained urgency thanks to a federal appeals court ruling that undated absentee ballots from Lehigh County left over from the fall election should be counted. Questioner from Philadelphia reported on Saturday.
as Inquirer notes that the ruling sent both counties and campaigns into a tizzy because previous state court rulings said voters must date their ballots or face being thrown out. Ninety minutes after the verdict was announced, the lawyer for McCormick The newspaper said it sent emails to state and election officials in all 67 counties.
“We trust in the light [Third Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals’] in your assessment, you will instruct your appropriate committees to count any mail-in or mail-in ballots that were received in a timely manner but were postponed/uncounted simply because the ballots did not include the date the voter provided on the outer envelope” – lawyer, Ron Hickswrote, according to Inquirer. “To the extent you are unwilling to provide such advice, we request a formal hearing on this matter before your boards.”
By Saturday, when more than 1.34 million votes had been cast, Oz he had an advantage of 1,070 votes McCormick, the Inquirer reports. This is a difference of less than 0.08 percent of the vote. Under state lawa difference of 0.5 percent or less would trigger a recount, the Capital-Star he had already reported.
But would a recount make a difference? The answer, according to a modern report: probably, but probably not.
Some analysis of 20 years of data By Fair votinga Maryland-based organization that bills itself as a “nonpartisan advocate of election reform.” found that of 31 recounts conducted in 5,778 statewide elections between 2000 and 2019, only three resulted in invalidating the original result.
The analysis showed that in all three the original margin of victory was less than 0.05 percent.
For the completists among you, the races involved were the 2004 Washington State gubernatorial election; according to the report: the 2006 state auditor race in Vermont and the 2008 U.S. Senate race in Minnesota. Fair voting analysis.
A total of 16 states and Washington, D.C. have automatic recount laws based on certain margins. Of these 17 jurisdictions, “eight conduct automatic conversion within a margin of 0.50 percent, four conduct automatic conversion within a margin of 1 percent, four do so at a margin ranging from 0.1 percent to 0.25 percent, and one, Michigan, conducts automatic conversion of deposits equal to or less than 2,000 votes,” wrote the authors of the report. “Four states only have automatic recounts in the event of an exact tie. An exact tie has never occurred in a statewide race and is extremely unlikely, so we do not include them in our automatic recount state count.”
Now there is no winner in Oz/McCormick another competition. And as of Saturday, the campaigns had not met the recount threshold. However, the data suggests that the chances of this happening are high.
Below is an explanation of why this happens.
Firstly, as the analysis showed, changes in the margin in conversions are usually diminutive.
“The statewide recount resulted in an average margin between front-runners of 430 votes, or 0.024 percent of the vote in this election. The largest margin change occurred in Vermont in 2006, where initial manual counting errors resulted in a conversion margin shift of 0.107 percent, while the next largest margin change was 0.076 percent.” – wrote the authors of the report.
And while “recounts with original margins greater than 0.15% resulted in larger margin shifts compared to recounts with lower margins, the margin shift tended to increase the gap between the winning and losing candidate, rather than narrow it,” they wrote.
Second, margin shifts are smaller in larger elections, and the analysis shows that “margin shifts did not augment in proportion to the number of votes cast.
“This means that the impact of a single counted vote on the margin of victory should decrease as the number of votes in an election increases. “For example, correcting one miscount in an election in which 10 votes were cast would change the margin by 10 percent, but a single error in an election in which 1,000 votes were cast would change the margin by only 0.1 percent,” they wrote. “In 31 statewide recounts between 2000 and 2019, the recount margin shift decreased as electorate size increased.”
Stay with Capital-Star today and throughout the week for updates on this developing story.
Our stuff.
Nearly 70 million Americans receive benefits from Social Security Administration programs. In this week’s issue Rocket with numbers, Kasia Miller decomposes the data.
Pennsylvania the unemployment rate in April dropped to 4.8 percent, Kasia Miller also reports.
Marketing and direct-to-consumer sales by Pennsylvania farmers generated $600 million in revenue in 2020, Kasia Miller further reports.
Reviewing last week’s headline results, our partners at Philadelphia Gay News state that some high-profile LGBTQ candidates lost their contests, but others saw electoral success.
Pennsylvania Public Schools have doubled their solar energy consumption since 2020but we still have some distance to cover, our partners at Pittsburgh City Document report.
A series of record settlement clinics currently being conducted in Philadelphia aims to connect thousands of city residents with a criminal history with work and a modern beginning, our partners in Philadelphia Tribune reports.
In the Capital Star: Hundreds of state legislators, including Pennsylvania, joined far-right groups on Facebook. and what they say Americans about their financial condition.
On our comments page this morning: Due to the next sitting of the Sejm this week, Richard S. EdleyWith Association of Rehabilitation and Community Providerssays the state’s most vulnerable residents are at risk — and only lawmakers can fix it. And Pennsylvania, the cradle of democracy, could have elected an insurgent governorregular opinion Dick Polman warns.
Elsewhere.
Lt. Governor John Fetterman left the hospital and returned homeafter suffering a stroke earlier this month, Inquirer reports.
After failing to stop him, Pennsylvania Republicans line up in the back GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, Mail Newspaper reports.
PA reflectorMeanwhile, explains how Mastriano built his grassroots campaign (By PennLive).
And that’s it totally too early to bet against AND Mastriano win this fall, Lancaster on the Internet reports.
Attorney General Josh ShapiroThe Democrat he will face Mastriano in November, sharply criticized him for his “dangerous” rhetoric about Big lie, Call notes reports.
The Morning call updates on the latest information on undecided primary competitions in the Lehigh Valley.
PoliticsPA explains what impact provisional ballots will have undecided contests.
City and State of Pa. summarizes the winners and losers from the last week in state policy.
In Philadelphia Black Doctors Consortium organized a march to highlight health equity issues, WHY-FM reports.
The state will delay the closure of two facilities that serve people with intellectual disabilities, WESA-FM reports.
Western Communities they wonder again how the west was conquered, Stateline.org reports.
Here’s your #Harrisburg Instagram of the Day:
What’s going on
They are baaaacckkkk: The Chamber meets today at 12:00. The Senate returns to session today at 1:00 p.m.
9:30, 515 Irvis: House Environmental Resources and Energy Committee
10:00, 523 Irvis: House Education Committee
10:00, interview room 1, northern office building: Senate Judiciary Committee
12:15, Main Capitol 461: Senate Transportation Committee
1:00 p.m., CoPAHUB room 115, Harrisburg: Joint Commission of State Government
Call of the Chair, 140 Main Capitol: House Appropriations Committee
Chairman’s Call, G50 Irvis: Committee on Labor and Industry of the House of Representatives
Chairman’s call: Senate Appropriations Committee
Chairman’s call: Committee on Executive Rules and Nominations
What’s Going On (Naked Political Edition)
17:00: Party for Representative Ryan Warner
17:30: Party for Representative Ryan Bizarro
If you play both tournaments and give it your all, you will only win $7,500 today.
Wolf watch
At the time of writing Governor Tom Wolf there is no public schedule today.
You say it’s your birthday.
Belated best wishes go to you this morning Jacob MichaelsWith Morning callwho celebrated on Sunday. I hope your massive day was a success, sir.
Heavy rotation
Here’s some footage from some Mancunian rock veterans: Jamesto get your work week rolling. His ‘All the colors of you.’
Monday’s free hockey link
One rule in hockey: Madison Square Garden it’s a tough room for visiting teams because Hurricane CarolinaI found out on Sunday after losing 3-1 by decision to the New York Rangers. The Chicks they still lead the playoff series 2-1.
And now you’re up to date.
