High or sign of a red tide in November? That’s the key question as we examine the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s latest gains in voter registration.
I actually originally chose this moment because it’s about halfway between my last update in april and the state’s voter registration deadline in October. Instead, it’s a chance to describe trends just ahead of the Democratic presidential nomination moved from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris, and track how this fresh Harris/Trump race will or will not impact the results over the next three months.
Back in AprilThe Democratic lead in statewide registrations was D+397,241. That lead now shrinks to D+360,982: Democrats lost 2,214 registrants, Republicans gained 34,045, and Independents gained 41,475.
Where did these GOP gains come from, and what does it tell us about the upcoming race? Let’s dive into the numbers and try to find out.
Quick note: I’m exploring our changing electoral trends by tracking the gains one party has amassed in registrations over the other party. For example, R+500 means the Republican Party gained a net 500 more registered voters in that county than the Democratic Party during that period, while D+500 indicates the reverse.
Central
- Blair: R+513
- Bradford: R+310
- Cameron: R+6
- Center: R+48
- Clear field: R+431
- Clinton: R+147
- Columbia: R+290
- Canadian deer: R+183
- Hunting: R+107
- Juniata: R+69
- Lycoming: R+380
- McKean: R+116
- Mifflin: R+211
- Installation: R+17
- North Tumberland: R+242
- Potter: R+51
- Codes: R+101
- Sullivan: R+62
- Tioga: R+149
- Union: R+44
It’s been a relatively tranquil summer here in Central Pennsylvania, but excitement is sure to return in the fall as students return to Penn State and Bucknell Universities. So if there’s a renewed Democratic enthusiasm among youthful people, we should see some signs there. On the other hand, if the war in Gaza continues, we’re likely to see lots of protests also.
Northeast
- Coal: R+441
- Lackawanna: R+875
- Lucerne: R+1.376
- Monroe: R+557
- Pike: R+289
- Schuylkill: R+531
- Susquehanna: R+156
- Wayne: R+283
- Wyoming: R+128
Since Donald Trump’s defeat in 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost enough votes in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre corridor alone cost it to the entire community, I was watching the region closely. The native’s son, President Joe Biden, was supposed to return to these Obama-level margins here, but in the end he managed to secure only modest three points improvement in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties.
At the same time, without Trump on the Democratic ticket for the state election, they did quite well there in 2018 and in 2022The question remains whether Harris can handle them in a fight against Trump.
What’s more, Luzerne County looks set to go from majority Democratic to majority Republican before we get to October. The Democratic lead there has fallen to just 1,370, a far cry from their 45,467 lead when I started tracking this in May 2015.
North West
- Spicy: R+179
- Crawford: +400 PLN
- Eric: R+919
- Forest: R+16
- Jefferson: R+228
- Mercer: R+570
- Wenango: R+203
- Warren: R+176
Speaking of cities where Harris may need to improve Biden’s performance, we also have Erie. The lake county is indicator Commonwealth, supporting the winner of the statewide presidential election since 1992As a result, candidates from both parties are certain to visit several times over the next 100 days.
South Central
- Adams: R+372
- Bedford: R+209
- Cumberland: R+193
- Dolphin: R+545
- Franklin: R+550
- Fulton: R+93
- Lancaster: R+1,168
- Lebanon: R+348
- Perry: R+147
- York: R+1,319
I like to call Lancaster and York the Big Red Machines of Pennsylvania because represent the most populated red counties in the Commonwealth. In the Trump era, however, these counties started drifting to the leftto such an extent that Josh Shapiro Lancaster almost won during the 2022 gubernatorial elections
So if Harris loses ground in rural areas of Central, Northeastern, Northwestern and Southwestern Pennsylvania, she will have a chance to make up some of that ground in the south-central part of the state. Namely, Harrisburg and its neighboring suburbs in Dauphin and Cumberland Counties are a perfect opportunity for her here.
Southeast
- Tags: +1,487 PLN
- Dollars: PLN+1,974
- Chester: R+268
- Delaware: D+75
- Lehigh: PLN+1,228
- Montgomery: R+194
- Northampton: +1,248 PLN
- Philadelphia: R+4,396
By any measure, this region could be a ball game. That’s why Republicans must be thrilled with their gains here, highlighted by their penalty kick at Bucks Countywhich returns to the GOP majority for the first time since spring 2008Remember, Biden won Bucks by a landslide four and a half points in 2020and Harris will certainly have to improve on that lead.
The only blue dot on the entire map is right here in Delaware County, the only county that has seen an enhance in Democratic registrations since April. On the other hand, Pennsylvania Republicans saw their biggest gains in Philadelphia, a place where Democrats should obviously be increasing their vote at this point in the election season.
SW
- Allegheny: R+2,083
- Armstrong: R+405
- Beaver: R+704
- Butler: R+859
- Cambria: R+686
- Fayette: R+867
- Green: R+230
- Indiana: R+342
- Lawrence: R+498
- Somerset: R+314
- Washington: R+998
- West Pomeranian: +1805 PLN
The voter enters this Appalachian Region Pennsylvania just keeps getting redder. Southwest famously driven Trump won in 2016, but four years later Biden was able to gradually reduce Trump’s advantage in counties like Beaver, Butler, Washington and Westmoreland. So Trump will want to reverse those trends and get monster results here against Harris.
Meanwhile, any Harris victory will depend in part on winning massive in Pittsburgh and the rest of Allegheny County. Four years ago, Biden won by a whopping 146,761 votes here, third highest in history only for FDR in 1936 AND LBJ in 1964She’ll likely need an even better performance in Steel City to carry the PA.
The suburbs will be key
In 2020, Joe Biden reclaimed the Keystone State ahead of Hillary Clinton in the suburbs of the Commonwealth and, to a lesser extent, in the state’s rural areas. So even as Donald Trump he did better in Philadelphiahis 44,292 vote win in 2016 stay 80,555 votes lost in 2020.
Now that Harris is at the top of the ticket, those trends are likely to reverse, with Trump looking to replicate his 2016 rural advantages while Harris aims to match Obama’s urban support. As a result, this contest is likely to be decided in the suburbs.
The last peak of the Democratic advantage in Philadelphia was Barack Obama’s victory 492,339 votes ahead in 2012In comparison, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden have amassed 475 277 AND 471 050 in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Democrats hope that with another black candidate at the top of the ticket, they will be able to better close that gap.
But perhaps more critical will be the Democratic advantage in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties. After Obama released 123,327 votes ahead in 2012Clinton made it so that 188 353while Biden extended that advantage to 293 094Given the circumstances, Harris simply has to match Biden’s results, or even better them.
It is worth emphasizing that the best recent performance in the suburbs of Philadelphia was recorded by Josh Shapiro in the 2022 gubernatorial electionIn a race with lower turnout than the presidential election, Shapiro rallied 388,273 votessurpassing even Ed Rendell’s 374,243-vote advantage at the time 2006 blue wave.
So if Shapiro does win the presidential election, the Philadelphia suburbs will play a key role.
But Pennsylvania isn’t just the City of Brotherly Love and its suburbs. For example, now that Biden has dropped out of the race, Erie and Scranton are particularly tempting targets for the Trump-Vance campaign. On the other hand, Latino voters in the Lehigh Valley cities of Allentown and Reading represent a tempting opportunity for Harris’ team.
I’ll have more details on this when voter registration is due in October. For now, let’s wait and see how this suddenly uncertain race plays out.
