By A. K. Sandoval-StraussPenn State
After Taylor Swift supports Kamala Harris for president in early September 2024, posting a message to his 284 million Instagram fans, some Democratic strategists suggested that an endorsement from Puerto Rican recording artist Bad Bunny could do more to swing the election — especially in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, home to about 300,000 eligible Puerto Rican voters.
But when many Americans think of Pennsylvania’s deindustrialized eastern counties – including presidential leaders such as Northampton – they can think more about Billy Joel.”Allentown” than “Bad Bunny”Candle”, a song about the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.
as professor of history and director of Latina/o Studies at Penn State, I believe that both artists – a legendary singer-songwriter and Grammy-winning reggaeton and trap titan – can support clarify the political situation in the Keystone State, which is widely perceived as the battlefield that will choose the next president.
“Closing all factories”
When Billy Joel recorded his bleak song in 1982 about workers being left behind because “they’re closing all the factories,” he was mainly describing the situation in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania6 miles from Allentown.
Starting in the slow 1970s, massively Bethlehem Steel Company. started to tardy down tens of thousands of workers. But Joel said there wasn’t much that rhymed with “Bethlehem,” so he instead, he used a neighboring city.
During the 1970s, Pennsylvania’s smaller industrial towns such as Bethlehem, Hazleton, York, Reading, and Lancaster were losing population and vitality, and in many cases they were.
For many Americans, especially those outside Pennsylvania, the image of these cities has not changed since then. They still think about the shrinking cities inhabited by white factory workers.
Growing Latino Presence
But Allentown, Bethlehem and other older industrial towns in Pennsylvania have seen remarkable improvement, thanks in part to the arrival of novel residents – most of them Latinos from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Since the 1990s, these newcomers have helped restore population growth, stabilize housing markets, and provide labor in novel industries such as warehousing and transportation.
Allentown is now 54% Latino – a higher percentage of Latinos than Los Angeles.
Lancaster AND Yorkwhich make up 40% and 38% of Latinos, respectively, have a much larger percentage of Latinos than Chicago AND New York. And reading, with 69% Latinois almost as Latin as Miami, at 70%. Of course, the overall number of Latino voters in these major cities is much larger.
Three factors are driving Latinos to settle in these cities. They usually have plenty of them work in warehouse and logistics, affordable housing and a sense of petite community – especially compared to New York, where many of these novel residents came from and not directly from Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic.
Industrial towns such as Allentown, Bethlehem, and Reading had long Democratic strongholds because of the labor movement. And that is still the case – although now it is the result of both union influence and the political leanings of Latino voters.
According to a 2022 study by the Pew Research Center: 60% of Latino adults in the US say the Democratic Party represents the interests of “people like them” compared to 34% who say the same for the Republican Party.
The 2020 U.S. Census found this to be the case for the first time over 1 million Latinos in Pennsylvania – a number that has since increased to over 1.1 million. This covers it entitled to votealthough Latinos tend towards both register and to vote at much lower rates than non-Hispanic white and black voters.
It is certainly an oversimplification to attribute a state or nation’s margin of victory to just one demographic group – the or soccer moms in the 90s, Office Park fathers AND values voters in 2000 or Latinos in 2024.
But w very close choices like thispetite margin shifts among key groups, such as Latino voters in Pennsylvania, could determine who becomes president.
Puerto Ricans are lean Democrats
The Voice of Latinos includes different nationalities and identities, and partisan preferences vary greatly among them.
For example, Mexicans and Puerto Ricans showed greatest loyalty to the Democratic Partywhile Cubans are notable for the most republican, followed by the Venezuelans.
Moreover, Pennsylvania’s Latino population shows a very different distribution than on the national scene. Throughout the United States, people of Mexican origin constitute approx 60% of all LatinosPuerto Ricans make up 9.5%, and Cubans, Dominicans and Salvadorans each make up about 4%.
But in Pennsylvania 53% of Latinos are Puerto Rican and 13% identify as Mexican. Meanwhile, 11% say they are Dominican and only 3% say they are Cuban.
And this brings us back to Bad Bunny, who was born and raised in Vega Baja, a petite town on the northern coast of Puerto Rico. People born in Puerto Rico are U.S. citizens, but can only vote in U.S. elections if they live on the mainland. And those who live in Pennsylvania could prove crucial in November.
90,000 undecided votes?
Overall, Latinos were part of the coalition that helped in 2020 Joe Biden won the state where he was born and go to the White House.
Biden won approx 75% of the Latino vote in Pennsylvania up to 25% for Trump. Considering Biden won Pennsylvania just 80,000 votes in 2020, how the state’s 580,000 Latino voters split their votes in 2024 could determine the next president.
This is confirmed by the latest survey of Latinos in embattled Northampton County. A September 2024 survey found that among Latinos in the county Harris led Trump 60% to 25%.
It was certainly a forceful lead for Harris, but the significance was marginal.
The poll found that Harris fell low of Biden’s statewide Latino vote share in 2020, and Trump also fell low of the Latino vote total in 2020. So the numbers show that about 90,000 Latino voters may still be undecided and may therefore be crucial in deciding who to support and by what margin.
This is why there is so much talk about whether Bad Bunny will endorse him in the race. Both campaigns clearly believe that the support of high-profile Latinos and Latinos can support sway community members.
In addition to domestic support from stars such as America Ferrera AND Rosario DawsonHarris’ campaign recently took place so in Allentown starring Emmy Award-winning actress Liza Colón-Zayas of “The Bear” and “Hamilton” and “In the Heights” star Anthony Ramos – both of Puerto Rican descent.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign attracted rappers from Puerto Rico Anuel AA and Justin Quiles on stage to support the former president at his rally in Johnstown in slow August.
Latinos, like other voters, make decisions based on a combination of economic interests, cultural values and social sentiment. No one knows whether a celebrity’s endorsement will change anything, but campaigns will do everything to make undecided voters identify with their candidate.
On September 29, the Democratic National Committee announced it would be spending more money in the final weeks leading up to Election Day engaging Puerto Rican and other Latino voters in Pennsylvania.
So while the largest concentrations of Latino voters in the US are still in the southwestthe most decisive group of Latino and Latino voters may be those living far from the border, in eastern Pennsylvania.
A. K. Sandoval-Strauss is a professor of history at the University of Penn State. This article has been republished from Conversation under Creative Commons license. Read it original article.
