A significant boost in working-class communities in Philadelphia’s suburbs contributed to President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, according to a novel Inquirer analysis.
Trump narrowed Vice President Kamala Harris’s margins in four collar counties, stripping her of tens of thousands of votes that President Joe Biden won in the region in 2020 and stemming a shift to the left that his own presidency had accelerated there.
Ultimately, Trump won the suburbs by 37,000 more votes than in 2020, roughly a third of his total statewide lead. Including Democratic losses, suburban counties moved toward Trump by a margin of 51,000 votes.
A key element of Biden’s 2020 victory was shifting traditionally Republican parts of Philadelphia’s suburbs blue and winning gigantic margins in heavily Democratic cities like Main Line communities.
Both campaigns this year knew that the suburbs — where nearly a third of the state’s voters live — were key to victory. Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, have campaigned in the suburbs seven times. Harris and her running mate Tim Walz stopped in the suburbs six times.
Trump’s visits paid off. He dramatically improved his margins in 2024, flipping some blue-collar towns like Bensalem in Lower Bucks County and narrowing the Democratic advantage in solidly blue communities.
Here’s where he made the biggest gains:
Throwing dollars
Trump lost three of four suburban counties but narrowly won Bucks County, the last purple county in the region. Some of the most significant changes for Trump occurred in Lower Bucks County, making him the first Republican presidential candidate to win the county since 1988.
Trump flipped four towns that voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, and three in Bucks – Bensalem, Tullytown and Penndel. The fourth was Lower Moreland in Montgomery County.
One of the president-elect’s most visual campaign stops was in Bucks, at an event where he operated a fryer and served food at a drive-in.
It’s improving its margins in other districts — especially parts of Delco
The extensive majority of suburban districts — more than 1,000 of the state’s roughly 1,400 — flipped to the Republican Party in 2024. Only 304 districts flipped to the Democratic Party. Except Bucks, southeast In Delaware County, there was particularly powerful movement to the right.
In the easternmost part of Upper Darby, the shift toward Trump was 11.3 percentage points from 2020 to this year. Some of that bleeding was offset by gains in the Drexel Hill neighborhood on the town’s west side. Overall, Upper Darby moved about 1.9 points to the right, in line with the rest of the suburbs.
Even in Montgomery County, a Democratic stronghold, the pool of towns that voted at least 65% Democratic in 2020 was narrowed this year. Municipalities such as Upper Merion, Whitemarsh, Conshohocken, West Conshohocken and Whitpain remained Democratic, but by smaller margins.
Overall, the suburbs remain overwhelmingly Democratic — 25 municipalities that Biden flipped Democratic remain in 2024 — but Trump’s inroads into these areas have been significant.
He won back 10 suburban cities for Republicans, which Biden flipped from Republican in 2016 to Democratic in 2020.
Trump’s success in working-class communities
Trump did better in suburban districts where residents have lower-than-average incomes and where less than half the population had a bachelor’s degree.
That’s also the nature of where he performed best in other parts of the state in an election year when inflation was a major concern for voters, especially low-income voters.
Still, turnout remained a challenge in the lowest-income suburban districts, where turnout for Trump was lower than in districts where incomes were closer to the average but slightly lower.
Suburban districts, once bastions of chamber-of-commerce-style conservatism, are arguably the most significant growth areas for Democrats in Pennsylvania and across the country since Trump took office in 2016.
Most of Trump’s gains can be attributed to inflation. But the margins are the first significant sign that Democrats may have a ceiling in collar counties.
Staff writers Lizzie Mulvey and Chris A. Williams contributed reporting.
